Corpus overview


MeSH Disease

Human Phenotype

Pneumonia (6)


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    Application of COVID-19 pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD diffusion data to predict epidemic situation

    Authors: Zhenguo Wu

    doi:10.1101/2020.04.11.20061432 Date: 2020-04-14 Source: medRxiv

    Objective: To evaluate novel coronavirus pneumonia MESHD pneumonia HP cases by establishing the mathematical model of the number of confirmed cases TRANS daily, and to assess the current situation and development of the epidemic situation, so as to provide a digital basis for decision-making. Methods: The number of newly confirmed covid-19 cases per day was taken as the research object, and the seven-day average value (M)) and the sequential value (R TRANS) of M were calculated to study the occurrence and development of covid-19 epidemic through the analysis of charts and data. Results: M reflected the current situation of epidemic development; R reflected the current level of infection MESHD and the trend of epidemic development. Conclusion: The current data can be used to evaluate the number of people who have been infected, and when R < 1, the peak of epidemic can be predicted.

    Confronting COVID-19: Surging critical care capacity in Italy

    Authors: Jose Manuel Rodriguez Llanes; Rafael Castro Delgado; Morten Gram Pedersen; Pedro Arcos Gonzalez; Matteo Meneghini

    doi:10.1101/2020.04.01.20050237 Date: 2020-04-06 Source: medRxiv

    The current spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 MESHD (SARS-CoV-2) in Europe threats Italian capacity and that of other national health systems to effectively respond to the needs of patients who require intensive care, mostly due to pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD and derived complications from concomitant disease and age TRANS. Predicting the surge in capacity has proved difficult due to the requirement of a subtle combination of diverse expertise and difficult choices to be made on selecting robust measures of critical care utilization, and parsimonious epidemic modelling which account for changing government measures. We modelled the required surge capacity of ICU beds in Italy exclusively for COVID-19 patients at epidemic peak. Because new measures were imposed by the Italian government, suspending nearly all non-essential sectors of the economy, we included the potential impacts of these new measures. The modelling considered those hospitalized and home isolated as quarantined, mimicking conditions on the ground. The percentage of patients in intensive care (out of the daily active confirmed cases TRANS) required for our calculations were chosen based on clinical relevance and robustness, and this number was consistently on average 9.9% from February 24 to March 6, 2020. Five different scenarios were produced (two positive and three negative). Under most positive scenarios, in which R0 TRANS is reduced below 1 (i.e., 0.71), the number of daily active confirmed cases TRANS will peak at nearly 89 000 by the early days of April and the total number of intensive care beds exclusively dedicated to COVID-19 patients required in Italy estimated at 8791. Worst scenarios produce unmanageable numbers. Our results suggest that the decisive moment for Italy has come. Jointly reinforcement by the government of the measures approved so far, including home confinement, but even more important the full commitment of the civil society in respecting home confinement, social distancing and hygiene will be key in the next days. Yet, even under the best circumstances, intensive care capacity will need to get closer to 9000 units in the country to avoid preventable mortality. So far, only strong measures were effective in Italy, as shown by our modelling, and this may offer an opportunity to European countries to accelerate their interventions.

    Analysis of Potential Risk of COVID-19 Infections in China Based on a Pairwise Epidemic Model

    Authors: Xiaofeng Luo; Shanshan Feng; Junyuan Yang; Xiao-Long Peng; Xiaochun Cao; Juping Zhang; Meiping Yao; Huaiping Zhu; Michael Y. Li; Hao Wang; Zhen Jin

    id:10.20944/preprints202002.0398.v1 Date: 2020-02-27 Source:

    The ongoing outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia MESHD pneumonia HP (also known as COVID-19) has triggered a series of stringent control measures in China, such as city closure, traffic restrictions, contact tracing TRANS and household quarantine. These containment efforts often lead to changes in the contact pattern among individuals of the population. Many existing compartmental epidemic models fail to account for the effects of contact structure. In this paper, we devised a pairwise epidemic model to analyze the COVID-19 outbreak in China based on confirmed cases TRANS reported during the period February 3rd--17th, 2020. By explicitly incorporating the effects of family clusters and contact tracing TRANS followed by household quarantine and isolation, our model provides a good fit to the trajectory of COVID-19 infections MESHD and is useful to predict the epidemic trend. We obtained the average of the reproduction number TRANS $R=1.494$ ($95\%$ CI: $1.483-1.507$) for Hubei province and $R=1.178$ ($95\%$ CI: $1.145-1.158$) for China (except Hubei), suggesting that some existing studies may have overestimated the reproduction number TRANS by neglecting the dynamical correlations and clustering effects. We forecasted that the COVID-19 epidemic would peak on February 13th ($95\%$ CI: February $9-17$th) in Hubei and 6 days eariler in the regions outside Hubei. Moreover the epidemic was expected to last until the middle of March in China (except Hubei) and late April in Hubei. The sensitivity SERO analysis shows that ongoing exposure for the susceptible and population clustering play an important role in the disease propagation. With the enforcement of household quarantine measures, the reproduction number TRANS $R$ effectively reduces and epidemic quantities decrease accordingly. Furthermore, we gave an answer to the public concern on how long the stringent containment strategies should maintain. Through numerical analysis, we suggested that the time for the resumption of work and production in China (except Hubei) and Hubei would be the middle of March and the end of April, 2020, respectively. These constructive suggestions may bring some immeasurable social-economic benefits in the long run.

    Estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number TRANS of 2019-nCoV Outbreak in China

    Authors: Chong You; Yuhao Deng; Wenjie Hu; Jiarui Sun; Qiushi Lin; Feng Zhou; Cheng Heng Pang; Yuan Zhang; Zhengchao Chen; Xiao-Hua Zhou

    doi:10.1101/2020.02.08.20021253 Date: 2020-02-11 Source: medRxiv

    Background: The 2019-nCoV outbreak in Wuhan, China has attracted world-wide attention. As of February 11, 2020, a total of 44730 cases of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia MESHD pneumonia HP associated with COVID-19 were confirmed by the National Health Commission of China. Methods: Three approaches, namely Poisson likelihood-based method (ML), exponential growth rate-based method (EGR) and stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Removed dynamic model-based method (SIR), were implemented to estimate the basic and controlled reproduction numbers TRANS. Results: A total of 71 chains of transmission TRANS together with dates of symptoms onset TRANS and 67 dates of infections MESHD were identified among 5405 confirmed cases TRANS outside Hubei as reported by February 2, 2020. Based on this information, we find the serial interval TRANS having an average of 4.41 days with a standard deviation of 3.17 days and the infectious period TRANS having an average of 10.91 days with a standard deviation of 3.95 days. Conclusions: The controlled reproduction number TRANS is declining. It is lower than one in most regions of China, but is still larger than one in Hubei Province. Sustained efforts are needed to further reduce the Rc to below one in order to end the current epidemic.

    Transmission TRANS dynamics of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Authors: Tao Liu; Jianxiong Hu; Jianpeng Xiao; Guanhao He; Min Kang; Zuhua Rong; Lifeng Lin; Haojie Zhong; Qiong Huang; Aiping Deng; Weilin Zeng; Xiaohua Tan; Siqing Zeng; Zhihua Zhu; Jiansen Li; Dexin Gong; Donghua Wan; Shaowei Chen; Lingchuan Guo; Yan Li; Limei Sun; Wenjia Liang; Tie Song; Jianfeng He; Wenjun Ma

    doi:10.1101/2020.01.25.919787 Date: 2020-01-26 Source: bioRxiv

    RationaleSeveral studies have estimated basic production number of novel coronavirus pneumonia MESHD pneumonia HP (NCP). However, the time-varying transmission TRANS dynamics of NCP during the outbreak remain unclear. ObjectivesWe aimed to estimate the basic and time-varying transmission TRANS dynamics of NCP across China, and compared them with SARS. MethodsData on NCP cases by February 7, 2020 were collected from epidemiological investigations or official websites. Data on severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) cases in Guangdong Province, Beijing and Hong Kong during 2002-2003 were also obtained. We estimated the doubling time, basic reproduction number TRANS ( R0 TRANS) and time-varying reproduction number TRANS (Rt) of NCP and SARS. Measurements and main resultsAs of February 7, 2020, 34,598 NCP cases were identified in China, and daily confirmed cases TRANS decreased after February 4. The doubling time of NCP nationwide was 2.4 days which was shorter than that of SARS in Guangdong (14.3 days), Hong Kong (5.7 days) and Beijing (12.4 days). The R0 TRANS of NCP cases nationwide and in Wuhan were 4.5 and 4.4 respectively, which were higher than R0 TRANS of SARS in Guangdong (R0=2.3), Hongkong (R0=2.3), and Beijing (R0=2.6). The Rt for NCP continuously decreased especially after January 16 nationwide and in Wuhan. The R0 TRANS for secondary NCP cases in Guangdong was 0.6, and the Rt values were less than 1 during the epidemic. ConclusionsNCP may have a higher transmissibility TRANS than SARS, and the efforts of containing the outbreak are effective. However, the efforts are needed to persist in for reducing time-varying reproduction number TRANS below one. At a Glance CommentaryO_ST_ABSScientific Knowledge on the SubjectC_ST_ABSSince December 29, 2019, pneumonia HP infection with 2019-nCoV, now named as Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia HP (NCP), occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. The disease has rapidly spread from Wuhan to other areas. As a novel virus, the time-varying transmission TRANS dynamics of NCP remain unclear, and it is also important to compare it with SARS. What This Study Adds to the FieldWe compared the transmission TRANS dynamics of NCP with SARS, and found that NCP has a higher transmissibility TRANS than SARS. Time-varying production number indicates that rigorous control measures taken by governments are effective across China, and persistent efforts are needed to be taken for reducing instantaneous reproduction number TRANS below one.

    Pattern of early human-to-human transmission TRANS of Wuhan 2019-nCoV

    Authors: Julien Riou; Christian L Althaus

    doi:10.1101/2020.01.23.917351 Date: 2020-01-24 Source: bioRxiv

    On December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization was notified about a cluster of pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD of unknown aetiology in the city of Wuhan, China. Chinese authorities later identified a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) as the causative agent of the outbreak. As of January 23, 2020, 655 cases have been confirmed TRANS in China and several other countries. Understanding the transmission TRANS characteristics and the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission TRANS of 2019-nCoV is critically important for coordinating current screening and containment strategies, and determining whether the outbreak constitutes a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). We performed stochastic simulations of early outbreak trajectories that are consistent with the epidemiological findings to date. We found the basic reproduction number TRANS, R0 TRANS, to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval 1.4--3.8), indicating the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission TRANS. Transmission TRANS characteristics appear to be of a similar magnitude to severe acute respiratory syndrome MESHD-related coronavirus ( SARS-CoV MESHD) and the 1918 pandemic influenza. These findings underline the importance of heightened screening, surveillance and control efforts, particularly at airports and other travel TRANS hubs, in order to prevent further international spread of 2019-nCoV.

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MeSH Disease
Human Phenotype

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