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MeSH Disease

COVID-19 (1)

Death (1)


HGNC Genes

SARS-CoV-2 proteins

There are no SARS-CoV-2 protein terms in the subcorpus


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    Development of Severity and Mortality Prediction Models for COVID-19 MESHD Patients at Emergency Department Including the Chest X-Ray

    Authors: Pilar Calvillo Batllés; Leonor Cerdá-Alberich; Carles Fonfría-Esparcia; Ainhoa Carreres-Ortega; Carlos Francisco Muñoz-Núñez; Laura Trilles-Olaso; Carlos Baeza-Delgado; Jose Sánchez-García; Ignacio Gómez-Rico Junquero; Ana Gil-Brusola; Rodrigo Blanco-Salado; Alberto García-Ortega; Marta Montero-Alonso; Pilar Estellés-Lerga; Javier Millán-Soria; Cristina Aguado-Codina; Luis Martí-Bonmatí

    doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-88282/v1 Date: 2020-10-05 Source: ResearchSquare

    Objectives: To develop prognosis prediction models for COVID-19 MESHD patients attending an emergency department (ED) based on initial chest X- ray HGNC (CXR), demographics, clinical and laboratory parameters. Methods: All symptomatic confirmed COVID-19 MESHD patients admitted to our hospital ED between February 24th and April 24th 2020 were recruited. CXR features, clinical and laboratory variables and CXR abnormality indices extracted by a convolutional neural network (CNN) diagnostic tool were considered potential predictors on this first visit. The most serious individual outcome defined the three severity level: 0) home discharge or hospitalization ≤ 3 days, 1) hospital stay >3 days and 2) intensive care requirement or death MESHD. Severity and in-hospital mortality multivariable prediction models were developed and internally validated. The Youden index was used for model selection.Results: A total of 440 patients were enrolled (median 64 years; 55.9% male); 13.6% patients were discharged, 64% hospitalized, 6.6% required intensive care and 15.7% died. The severity prediction model included oxygen saturation/inspired oxygen fraction (SatO2/FiO2), age, C-reactive protein HGNC ( CRP HGNC), lymphocyte count, extent score of lung involvement on CXR (ExtScoreCXR), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), D-dimer level and platelets count, with AUC-ROC=0.94 and AUC-PRC=0.88. The mortality prediction model included age, SatO2/FiO2, CRP HGNC, LDH, CXR extent score, lymphocyte count and D-dimer level, with AUC-ROC=0.97 and AUC-PRC=0.78. The addition of CXR CNN-based indices slightly improved the predictive metrics for mortality (AUC-ROC=0.97 and AUC-PRC=0.83).Conclusion: The developed and internally validated severity and mortality prediction models could be useful as triage tools for COVID-19 MESHD patients and they should be further validated at different ED.

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MeSH Disease
HGNC Genes
SARS-CoV-2 Proteins


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