Background: Novel coronavirus ( COVID-19 MESHD
) infection is a global public health issue and has now affected more than 70 countries worldwide. Severe adult respiratory syndrome-CoV-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pneumonia MESHD
is associated with high risk of mortality. However, prognostic factors assessing poor clinical outcomes of individual patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia MESHD
remain unclear.Methods: We conducted a retrospective, multicenter study of patients with SARS-CoV-2 who were admitted to four hospitals in Wuhan, China from December 2019 to February 2020. Mortality at the of end of follow up period was the primary outcome. Prognostic factors for mortality were also assessed and a prognostic model was developed, calibrated and validated.Results: The study included 492 patients with SARS-CoV-2, which were divided into three cohorts, the training cohort (n=237), the validation cohort 1 (n=120), and the validation cohort 2 (n=135). Multivariate analysis showed that five clinical parameters were predictive of mortality at the end of follow up period, including age, odds ratio (OR), 1.1 HGNC
/ years increase (p<0.001); neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio OR, 1.14 (p<0.001), body temperature on admission OR, 1.53 / °C increase (p=0.005), increase of aspartate transaminase OR, 2.47 (p=0.019), and decrease of total protein OR, 1.69 (p=0.018).Furthermore, the prognostic model drawn from the training cohort was validated with the validation cohort 1 and 2 with comparable area under curve (AUC) at 0.912, 0.928, and 0.883, respectively. While individual survival probabilities were assessed, the model yielded a Harrell’s C index of 0.758 for the training cohort, 0.762 for the validation cohort 1, and 0.711 for the validation cohort 2, which were comparable among each other.Conclusions: A validated prognostic model was developed to assist in determining the clinical prognosis for SARS- CoV-2 pneumonia MESHD
. Using this established model, individual patients categorized in the high risk group were associated with an increased risk of mortality, whereas patients predicted in the low risk group had a high probability of survival.