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SARS-CoV-2 proteins

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    Estimating the case fatality ratio of the COVID-19 MESHD epidemic in China

    Authors: Xing Wang; Zihui Ma; Yi Ning; Chen Chen; Rujin Chen; Qiwen Chen; Heng Zhang; Chunming Li; Yan He; Tao Wang; Cheng Tong; Junqing Wu; Yuyan Li; Handong Ma; Shaodian Zhang; Hongxin Zhao

    doi:10.1101/2020.02.17.20023630 Date: 2020-02-20 Source: medRxiv

    Background: Corona Virus Disease MESHD 2019 ( COVID-19 MESHD) due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 MESHD (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in Wuhan city and rapidly spread throughout China since late December 2019. Crude case fatality ratio (CFR) with dividing the number of known deaths MESHD by the number of confirmed cases does not represent the true CFR and might be off by orders of magnitude. We aim to provide a precise estimate of the CFR of COVID-19 MESHD using statistical models at the early stage of the epidemic. Methods: We extracted data from the daily released epidemic report published by the National Health Commission P. R. China from 20 Jan 2020, to 1 March 2020. Competing risk model was used to obtain the cumulative hazards for death MESHD, cure, and cure-death hazard ratio. Then the CFR was estimated based on the slope of the last piece in joinpoint regression model, which reflected the most recent trend of the epidemic. Results: As of 1 March 2020, totally 80,369 cases were diagnosed as COVID-19 MESHD in China. The CFR of COVID-19 MESHD were estimated to be 70.9% (95% CI: 66.8%-75.6%) during Jan 20-Feb 2, 20.2% (18.6%-22.1%) during Feb 3 HGNC-14, 6.9% (6.4%-7.4%) during Feb 15-23, 1.5% (1.4%-1.6%) during Feb 24- March 1 HGNC in Hubei province, and 20.3% (17.0%-25.3%) during Jan 20-28, 1.9% (1.8%-2.1%) during Jan 29-Feb 12, 0.9% (0.8%-1.1%) during Feb 13-18, 0.4% (0.4%-0.5%) during Feb 19- March 1 HGNC in other areas of China, respectively. Conclusions: Based on analyses of public data, we found that the CFR in Hubei was much higher than that of other regions in China, over 3 times in all estimation. The CFR would follow a downwards trend based on our estimation from recently released data. Nevertheless, at early stage of outbreak, CFR estimates should be viewed cautiously because of limited data source on true onset and recovery time.

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MeSH Disease
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SARS-CoV-2 Proteins


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