Corpus overview


Overview

MeSH Disease

Human Phenotype

Pneumonia (36)

Fever (28)

Cough (22)

Hypertension (12)

Fatigue (8)


Transmission

Seroprevalence
    displaying 1 - 10 records in total 398
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    Epidemiology of Reopening in the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, Europe and Asia

    Authors: Weiqi Zhang; Alina Oltean; Scott Nichols; Fuad Odeh; Fei Zhong

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.05.20168757 Date: 2020-08-06 Source: medRxiv

    Since the discovery of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), COVID-19 has become a global healthcare and economic crisis. The United States (US) and Europe exhibited wide impacts from the virus with more than six million cases by the time of our analysis. To inhibit spread, stay-at-home orders and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were instituted. Beginning late April 2020, some US states, European, and Asian countries lifted restrictions and started the reopening phases. In this study, the changes of confirmed cases TRANS, hospitalizations, and deaths MESHD were analyzed after reopening for 11 countries and 40 US states using an interrupted time series analysis. Additionally, the distribution of these categories was further analyzed by age TRANS due to the known increased risk in elderly TRANS patients. Reopening had varied effects on COVID-19 cases depending on the region. Recent increases in cases did not fully translate into increased deaths MESHD. Eight countries had increased cases after reopening while only two countries showed the same trend in deaths MESHD. In the US, 30 states had observed increases in cases while only seven observed increased deaths MESHD. In addition, we found that states with later reopening dates were more likely to have significant decreases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths MESHD. Furthermore, age TRANS distributions through time were analyzed in relation to COVID-19 in the US. Younger age groups TRANS typically had an increased share of cases after reopening.

    Clinical course and severity outcome indicators among COVID 19 hospitalized patients in relation to comorbidities distribution Mexican cohort

    Authors: Genny Carrillo; Nina Mendez Dominguez; Kassandra D Santos Zaldivar; Andrea Rochel Perez; Mario Azuela Morales; Osman Cuevas Koh; Alberto Alvarez Baeza

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.31.20165480 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    Introduction: COVID-19 affected worldwide, causing to date, around 500,000 deaths MESHD. In Mexico, by April 29, the general case fatality was 6.52%, with 11.1% confirmed case TRANS mortality and hospital recovery rate around 72%. Once hospitalized, the odds for recovery and hospital death MESHD rates depend mainly on the patients' comorbidities and age TRANS. In Mexico, triage guidelines use algorithms and risk estimation tools for severity assessment and decision-making. The study's objective is to analyze the underlying conditions of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in Mexico concerning four severity outcomes. Materials and Methods: Retrospective cohort based on registries of all laboratory-confirmed patients with the COVID-19 infection MESHD that required hospitalization in Mexico. Independent variables were comorbidities and clinical manifestations. Dependent variables were four possible severity outcomes: (a) pneumonia MESHD pneumonia HP, (b) mechanical ventilation (c) intensive care unit, and (d) death MESHD; all of them were coded as binary Results: We included 69,334 hospitalizations of laboratory-confirmed and hospitalized patients to June 30, 2020. Patients were 55.29 years, and 62.61% were male TRANS. Hospital mortality among patients aged TRANS<15 was 9.11%, 51.99% of those aged TRANS >65 died. Male TRANS gender TRANS and increasing age TRANS predicted every severity outcome. Diabetes and hypertension MESHD hypertension HP predicted every severity outcome significantly. Obesity MESHD Obesity HP did not predict mortality, but CKD, respiratory diseases MESHD, cardiopathies were significant predictors. Conclusion: Obesity MESHD Obesity HP increased the risk for pneumonia MESHD pneumonia HP, mechanical ventilation, and intensive care admittance, but it was not a predictor of in-hospital death MESHD. Patients with respiratory diseases MESHD were less prone to develop pneumonia MESHD pneumonia HP, to receive mechanical ventilation and intensive care unit assistance, but they were at higher risk of in-hospital death MESHD.

    Epidemiological characteristics of SARS-COV-2 in Myanmar

    Authors: Aung Min Thway; Htun Tayza; Tun Tun Win; Ye Minn Tun; Moe Myint Aung; Yan Naung Win; Kyaw M Tun

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.02.20166504 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    Coronavirus disease MESHD (COVID-19) is an infectious disease MESHD caused by a newly discovered severe acute respiratory syndrome MESHD coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In Myanmar, first COVID-19 reported cases were identified on 23rd March 2020. There were 336 reported confirmed cases TRANS, 261 recovered and 6 deaths MESHD through 13th July 2020. The study was a retrospective case series and all COVID-19 confirmed cases TRANS from 23rd March to 13th July 2020 were included. The data series of COVID-19 cases were extracted from the daily official reports of the Ministry of Health and Sports (MOHS), Myanmar and Centers for Disease MESHD Control and Prevention (CDC), Myanmar. Among 336 confirmed cases TRANS, there were 169 cases with reported transmission TRANS events. The median serial interval TRANS was 4 days (IQR 3, 2-5) with the range of 0 - 26 days. The mean of the reproduction number TRANS was 1.44 with (95% CI = 1.30-1.60) by exponential growth method and 1.32 with (95% CI = 0.98-1.73) confident interval by maximum likelihood method. This study outlined the epidemiological characteristics and epidemic parameters of COVID-19 in Myanmar. The estimation parameters in this study can be comparable with other studies and variability of these parameters can be considered when implementing disease MESHD control strategy in Myanmar.

    Altitude as a protective factor from COVID-19

    Authors: Timothy M Thomson; Fresia Casas; Harold Andre Guerrero; Rómulo Figueroa-Mujica; Francisco C Villafuerte; Claudia Machicado

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.03.20167262 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    The COVID-19 pandemic had a delayed onset in South America compared to Asia (outside of China), Europe or North America. In spite of the presumed time advantage for the implementation of preventive measures to help contain its spread, the pandemic in that region followed growth rates that paralleled, and currently exceed, those observed several weeks before in Europe. Indeed, in early August, 2020, many countries in South and Central America presented among the highest rates in the world of COVID-19 confirmed cases TRANS and deaths MESHD per million inhabitants. Here, we have taken an ecological approach to describe the current state of the pandemic in Peru and its dynamics. Our analysis supports a protective effect of altitude from COVID-19 incidence and mortality. Further, we provide circumstantial evidence that internal migration through a specific land route is a significant factor progressively overriding the protection from COVID-19 afforded by high altitude. Finally, we show that protection by altitude is independent of poverty indexes and is inversely correlated with the prevalence SERO in the population of risk factors associated with severe COVID-19, including hypertension MESHD hypertension HP and hypercholesterolemia MESHD hypercholesterolemia HP. We discuss long-term multisystemic adaptations to hypobaric hypoxia MESHD as possible mechanisms that may explain the observed protective effect of high altitude from death MESHD from COVID-19.

    COVID-19 pandemic in Djibouti: epidemiology and the response strategy followed to contain the virus during the first two months, 17 March to 16 May 2020

    Authors: Mohamed Elhakim; Saleh Banoita Tourab; Ahmed Zouiten

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.03.20167692 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    Background: First cases of COVID-19 were reported from Wuhan, China, in December 2019, and it progressed rapidly. On 30 January, WHO declared the new disease MESHD as a PHEIC, then as a Pandemic on 11 March. By mid-March, the virus spread widely; Djibouti was not spared and was hit by the pandemic with the first case detected on 17 March. Djibouti worked with WHO and other partners to develop a preparedness and response plan, and implemented a series of intervention measures. MoH together with its civilian and military partners, closely followed WHO recommended strategy based on four pillars: testing, isolating, early case management, and contact tracing TRANS. From 17 March to 16 May, Djibouti performed the highest per capita tests in Africa and isolated, treated and traced the contacts TRANS of each positive case, which allowed for a rapid control of the epidemic. Methods: COVID-19 data included in this study was collected through MoH Djibouti during the period from 17 March to 16 May 2020. Results: A total of 1,401 confirmed cases TRANS of COVID-19 were included in the study with 4 related deaths MESHD (CFR: 0.3%) and an attack rate TRANS of 0.15%. Males TRANS represented (68.4%) of the cases, with the age group TRANS 31-45 years old (34.2%) as the most affected. Djibouti conducted 17,532 tests, and was considered as a champion for COVID-19 testing in Africa with 18.2 tests per 1000 habitant. All positive cases were isolated, treated and had their contacts traced TRANS, which led to early and proactive diagnosis of cases and in turn yielded up to 95-98% asymptomatic TRANS cases. Recoveries reached 69% of the infected cases with R0 TRANS (0.91). The virus was detected in 4 regions in the country, with the highest percentage in the capital (83%). Conclusion: Djibouti responded to COVID-19 pandemic following an efficient and effective strategy, using a strong collaboration between civilian and military health assets that increased the response capacities of the country. Partnership, coordination, solidarity, proactivity and commitment were the pillars to confront COVID-19 pandemic.

    SARS-CoV-2 antigens expressed in plants detect antibody SERO responses in COVID-19 patients

    Authors: Mohau S Makatsa; Marius B Tincho; Jerome M Wendoh; Sherazaan D Ismail; Rofhiwa Nesamari; Francisco Pera; Scott de Beer; Anura David; Sarika Jugwanth; Maemu P Gededzha; Nakampe Mampeule; Ian Sanne; Wendy Stevens; Lesley Scott; Jonathan Blackburn; Elizabeth S Mayne; Roanne S Keeton; Wendy A Burgers

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.04.20167940 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    Background: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has swept the world and poses a significant global threat to lives and livelihoods, with over 16 million confirmed cases TRANS and at least 650 000 deaths MESHD from COVID-19 in the first 7 months of the pandemic. Developing tools to measure seroprevalence SERO and understand protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is a priority. We aimed to develop a serological assay SERO using plant-derived recombinant viral proteins, which represent important tools in less-resourced settings. Methods: We established an indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay SERO ( ELISA SERO) using the S1 and receptor-binding domain (RBD) portions of the spike protein from SARS-CoV-2, expressed in Nicotiana benthamiana. We measured antibody SERO responses in sera from South African patients (n=77) who had tested positive by PCR for SARS-CoV-2. Samples were taken a median of six weeks after the diagnosis, and the majority of participants had mild and moderate COVID-19 disease MESHD. In addition, we tested the reactivity of pre-pandemic plasma SERO (n=58) and compared the performance SERO of our in-house ELISA SERO with a commercial assay. We also determined whether our assay could detect SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG and IgA in saliva. Results: We demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2-specific immunoglobulins are readily detectable using recombinant plant-derived viral proteins, in patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR. Reactivity to S1 and RBD was detected in 51 (66%) and 48 (62%) of participants, respectively. Notably, we detected 100% of samples identified as having S1-specific antibodies SERO by a validated, high sensitivity SERO commercial ELISA SERO, and OD values were strongly and significantly correlated between the two assays. For the pre-pandemic plasma SERO, 1/58 (1.7%) of samples were positive, indicating a high specificity for SARS-CoV-2 in our ELISA SERO. SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG correlated significantly with IgA and IgM responses. Endpoint titers of S1- and RBD-specific immunoglobulins ranged from 1:50 to 1:3200. S1-specific IgG and IgA were found in saliva samples from convalescent volunteers. Conclusions: We demonstrate that recombinant SARS-CoV-2 proteins produced in plants enable robust detection of SARS-CoV-2 humoral responses. This assay can be used for seroepidemiological studies and to measure the strength and durability of antibody SERO responses to SARS-CoV-2 in infected patients in our setting.

    90 Days of COVID-19 Social Distancing and Its Impacts on Air Quality and Health in Sao Paulo, Brazil

    Authors: Daniela Debone; Mariana da Costa; Simone Miraglia

    id:10.20944/preprints202008.0022.v1 Date: 2020-08-02 Source: preprints.org

    The coronavirus disease MESHD (COVID-19) pandemic caused by spreading rapidly a severe acute respiratory syndrome MESHD coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has imposed a unique situation for the humanity. Sao Paulo has reported 124,105 confirmed cases TRANS of COVID-19 and 5,623 deaths MESHD up to June 14th, being considered the epicenter of the pandemic in Brazil and in South America. Due to the measures for social distancing, there was a drop in the air pollution concentration in Sao Paulo. Starting on March 16th, 2020, we broke 90 days of social distancing into 13 weeks and compared to an equivalent period in 2019. We investigated the air quality improvement during the quarantine period and compared the associated avoided deaths MESHD to COVID-19 burden deaths MESHD. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was the best indicator of air quality in the analyzed weeks, since its reduction reached 58 %. Our study showed that the 5,623 deaths MESHD occurred during the analyzed weeks of quarantine represents an economic health loss of US$ 10.5 billion. In opposite, we observed a significant air quality improvement due to pollutants concentrations’ reductions during the analyzed weeks. Considering PM10, PM2.5 and NO2, the decrease of concentration levels respectively avoided 78, 337 and 387 premature deaths MESHD and prevented up to US$ 1.5 billion on health costs. These results highlight the importance of continuing to enforce existing air pollution regulations and measures to protect human health both during and after COVID-19 pandemic.

    Reflecting on the first two COVID-19 deaths MESHD in Uganda: a public health case study

    Authors: Joseph Kawuki; Quraish Sserwanja; Nathan Obore; Johnson Wang; Joseph Lau

    doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-52459/v1 Date: 2020-08-02 Source: ResearchSquare

    Objective: COVID-19 being a rapidly evolving pandemic, early lessons from the first deaths MESHD must be learnt to help feed into the public health guidelines. This study, therefore, aims to present the first two deaths MESHD due to COVID-19 in Uganda and their public health relevance.Cases: The first case was a 34-year female TRANS and support staff at a health center II. She first presented with COVID-19 like symptoms before dying on 21st July 2020. The second case was an 80 years old female TRANS, who also presented with COVID-19 like symptoms before dying on 24th July 2020. The postmortem samples of both cases were confirmed TRANS positive for COVID-19. Conclusion: This study identifies a need for timely identification and testing of COVID-19 suspects, strengthening of health center capacity, as well as more awareness for effective prevention and control of COVID-19.

    Isolation Considered Epidemiological Model for the Prediction of COVID-19 Trend in Tokyo, Japan

    Authors: Motoaki Utamura; Makoto Koizumi; Seiichi Kirikami

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.31.20165829 Date: 2020-07-31 Source: medRxiv

    Background: Coronavirus Disease MESHD 2019 (COVID19) currently poses a global public health threat. Although no exception, Tokyo, Japan was affected at first by only a small epidemic. Medical collapse nevertheless nearly happened because no predictive method existed for counting patients. A standard SIR epidemiological model and its derivatives predict susceptible, infectious, and removed (recovered/ deaths MESHD) cases but ignore isolation of confirmed cases TRANS. Predicting COVID19 trends with hospitalized and infectious people in field separately is important to prepare beds and develop quarantine strategies. Methods: Time-series COVID19 data from February 28 to May 23, 2020 in Tokyo were adopted for this study. A novel epidemiological model based on delay differential equation was proposed. The model can evaluate patients in hospitals and infectious cases in the field. Various data such as daily new cases, cumulative infections MESHD, patients in hospital, and PCR test positivity ratios were used to examine the model. This approach derived an alternative formulation equivalent to the standard SIR model. Its results were compared quantitatively with those of the present isolation model. Results: The basic reproductive number TRANS, inferred as 2.30, is a dimensionless parameter composed of modeling parameters. Effects of intervention to mitigate the epidemic spread were assessed a posteriori. An exit policy of how and when to release a statement of emergency MESHD was also assessed using the model. Furthermore, results suggest that the rapid isolation of infectious cases has a large potential to effectively mitigate the spread of infection MESHD and restores social and economic activities safely. Conclusions: A novel mathematical model was proposed and examined using COVID19 data for Tokyo. Results show that shortening the period from infection MESHD to hospitalization is effective against outbreak without rigorous public health intervention and control. Faster and precise case cluster detection and wider and quicker introduction of testing measures are strongly recommended.

    Novel uses of three-parameter logistic models and first-derivative models for the Coronavirus Disease MESHD (COVID-19) epidemic in the United States, in three distinct scenarios

    Authors: Bishoy T. Samuel

    doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-50739/v1 Date: 2020-07-29 Source: ResearchSquare

    Background: Forecasting the current coronavirus disease MESHD (COVID-19) epidemic in the United States necessitates novel mathematical models for accurate predictions. This paper examines novel uses of three-parameter logistic models and first-derivative models through three distinct scenarios that have not been examined in the literature as of July 14, 2020.Methods: Using publicly available data, statistical software was used to conduct a non-linear least-squares estimate to generate a three-parameter logistic model, with a subsequently generated first-derivative model. In the first scenario a logistic model was used to examine the natural log of COVID-19 cases as the dependent variable (versus day number), on July 11 and May 1. Independent t-test analyses were used to test comparative coefficient differences across models. In the second scenario, a first-derivative model was derived from a base three-parameter logistic model for April 27, examining time to peak mortality and decrease in case fatality rate. In the third scenario, a first-derivative model of mortality through July 11 as the dependent variable, versus confirmed cases TRANS, was generated to look at case fatality rate relative to increasing cases.Results: All models generated were statistically significant with R2 > 99%. The logistic models in the first scenario best predicted time to growth deceleration in the natural log of cases in the U.S. (slowing of exponential growth), estimated at March 11, 2020. For the May 1 data, independent t-test analyses of comparative coefficients across models were useful to track improvements from implemented public health measures. The first-derivative model in the second scenario on April 27, when the epidemic was more controlled, showed peak mortality around April 12-13, with a case fatality rate of < 1,000 deaths MESHD and trending down. The first-derivative model in the third scenario estimated a near-zero case fatality rate to occur at 4 million confirmed cases TRANS. It has not been affected by fluctuations in mortality from June 29 through July 11.Conclusion: Three-parameter logistic models and first-derivative models have utility in predicting time to growth deceleration, and case fatality rates relative to cases. They can objectively assess improvements of implemented epidemiologic measures and have applicable public health safety implications.

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MeSH Disease
Human Phenotype
Transmission
Seroprevalence


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