Corpus overview


Overview

MeSH Disease

Human Phenotype

Pneumonia (72)

Fever (54)

Cough (48)

Falls (23)

Fatigue (16)


Transmission

Seroprevalence
    displaying 1 - 10 records in total 1138
    records per page




    Covid-19 mortality rates in Northamptonshire UK: initial sub-regional comparisons and provisional SEIR model of disease MESHD disease spread TRANS spread

    Authors: Nick Petford; Jackie Campbell

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.30.20165399 Date: 2020-08-02 Source: medRxiv

    We analysed mortality rates in a non-metropolitan UK subregion (Northamptonshire) to understand SARS-CoV-2 disease MESHD fatalities at sub 1000000 population levels. A numerical (SEIR) model was then developed to predict the spread of Covid-19 in Northamptonshire. A combined approach using statistically-weighted data to fit the start of the epidemic to the mortality record. Parameter estimates were then derived for the transmission TRANS rate and basic reproduction number TRANS. Age TRANS standardised mortality rates are highest in Northampton (urban) and lowest in semi-rural districts. Northamptonshire has a statistically higher Covid-19 mortality rate than for the East Midlands and England as a whole. Model outputs suggest the number of infected individuals exceed official estimates, meaning less than 40 percent of the population may require immunisation. Combining published (sub-regional) mortality rate data with deterministic models on disease MESHD disease spread TRANS spread has the potential to help public health practitioners develop bespoke mitigations, guided by local population demographics.

    COVID-19: Knowledge, Perceptions and Attitudes of Residents in the Northern Region of Ghana, West Africa

    Authors: Courage Kosi Setsoafia Saba; Joseph Nzeh; Francis Addy; Akosua Bonsu Karikari

    id:10.20944/preprints202008.0060.v1 Date: 2020-08-02 Source: Preprints.org

    Africa is gradually becoming an epicentre for the COVID-19 pandemic. From the current trends of the disease MESHD, Africa might be the last hardest hit continent. While scientific investigations are ongoing to develop effective management through medications and vaccines, existing knowledge, perceptions and attitudes could be harnessed to develop an effective strategy to curb community transmission TRANS of the COVID-19. The present study assessed the awareness level, perceptions and attitudes of people living in rural, peri-urban and urban communities in Northern Ghana and their preparedness for the prevention and containment of COVID-19. We conducted a face-to-face interview and administered 553 semi-structured questionnaires in eighteen (18) rural and peri-urban/urban communities under Tolon District, Kumbungu Districts, Sagnarigu Municipality, Savelugu Municipality and Tamale Metropolis from 23rd of April to 8th of June 2020. The percentage of male TRANS to female TRANS among the respondents was 56.8% and 43.2%, respectively. Nearly half (41%) of the respondents had no formal education and 91.3% of them were Muslims. Most of the respondents (85%) held the view that COVID-19 is a punishment from God. There was a significant difference (P<0.05) between the time rural and peri-urban/urban communities first heard of COVID-19. Majority (63%) of the rural respondents depended on radio, while the peri-urban/urban respondents (51%) relied on television for information on COVID-19. All respondents were aware of COVID-19 and 91.7% could mention at least two symptoms of the disease MESHD but 18% believed there was no COVID-19 in Ghana. Most of the respondents (69.6%) believed they will not contract the virus. Our findings may provide useful data to government and other stakeholders in the COVID-19 fight.

    Data-driven modeling and forecasting of COVID-19 outbreak for public policy making

    Authors: Agus Hasan; Endah Putri; Hadi Susanto; Nuning Nuraini

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.30.20165555 Date: 2020-08-02 Source: medRxiv

    This paper presents a data-driven approach for COVID-19 outbreak modeling and forecasting, which can be used by public policy and decision makers to control the outbreak through Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI). First, we apply an extended Kalman filter (EKF) to a discrete-time stochastic augmented compartmental model to estimate the time-varying effective reproduction number TRANS Rt. We use daily confirmed cases TRANS, active cases, recovered cases, deceased cases, Case-Fatality-Rate (CFR), and infectious time as inputs for the model. Furthermore, we define a Transmission TRANS Index (TI) as a ratio between the instantaneous and the maximum value of the effective reproduction number TRANS. The value of TI shows the disease MESHD transmission TRANS in a contact between a susceptible and an infectious individual due to current measures such as physical distancing and lock-down relative to a normal condition. Based on the value of TI, we forecast different scenarios to see the effect of relaxing and tightening public measures. Case studies in three countries are provided to show the practicability of our approach.

    Household Representative Sample Strategy for COVID-19 Large-Scale Population Screening

    Authors: John Takyi-Williams

    id:10.20944/preprints202008.0030.v1 Date: 2020-08-02 Source: Preprints.org

    In the advent of COVID-19 pandemic, testing is highly essential to be able to isolate, treat infected persons, and finally curb transmission TRANS of this infectious respiratory disease MESHD. Group testing has been used previously for various infectious diseases MESHD and recently reported for large-scale population testing of COVID-19. However, possible sample dilution as a result of large pool sizes has been reported, limiting testing methods’ detection sensitivity SERO. Moreover, the need to sample all individuals prior to pooling overburden the limited resources such as test kits. An alternative proposed strategy where test is performed on pooled samples from individuals representing different households is presented here. This strategy intends to improve group testing method through the reduction in the number of samples collected and pooled during large-scale population testing. Moreover, it introduces database system which enables continuous monitoring of the population’s virus exposure for better decision making.

    Throat wash as a source of SARS-CoV-2 RNA to monitor community spread of COVID-19.

    Authors: Giselle Ibette Silva Lopez-Lopes; Cintia Mayumi Ahagon; Margarete Aparecida Bonega; Fabiana Pereira dos Santos; Katia Correa de Oliveira Santos; Audrey Cilli; Lincoln Spinazola do Prado; Daniela Bernardes Borges da Silva; Nuria Borges da Luz; Claudia Patara Saraceni; Ana Maria Sardinha Afonso; Maria do Carmo Timenetsky; Luis Fernando de Macedo Brigido

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.29.20163998 Date: 2020-08-01 Source: medRxiv

    Background: SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection with real time PCR is currently the central diagnostic tool to determine ongoing active infection MESHD. Nasopharyngeal and oral swabs are the main collection tool of biological material used as the source of viral RNA outside a hospital setting. However, limitation in swabs availability, trained health professional with proper PPE and potential risk of aerosols may hinder COVID diagnosis. Self-collection with swabs, saliva and throat wash to obtain oropharyngeal wash has been suggested as having comparable performance SERO of regular swab. We performed throat wash (TW) based surveillance with laboratory heath workers and other employees (LHW) at a laboratory research institute. Methods: Consecutive volunteer testing of LWH and external household and close contacts TRANS were included. TW self-collection was performed in 5 mL of sterile saline that was returned to original vial after approximate 5 secs of gargle. RNA extraction and rtPCR were performed as part of routine COVID protocols using Allplex (Seegene, Korea). Results: Four hundred and twenty two volunteers, 387 (93%) LHW and 43 (7%) contacts participated in the survey. One or more positive COVID rtPCR was documented in 63 (14.9% CI95 12%-19%) individuals. No correlation was observed between with direct activities with COVID samples to positivity, with infection MESHD observed in comparable rates among different laboratory areas, administrative or supportive activities. Among 63 with detected SARS-CoV-2 RNA, 59 with clinical information, 58% reported symptoms at a median of 4 days prior to collection, most with mild disease MESHD. Over a third (38%) of asymptomatic TRANS cases developed symptoms 1-3 days after collection. Although overall CT values of TW were higher than that of contemporary swab tests from hospitalized cases, TW from symptomatic cases had comparable CTs. Conclusions: The study suggests that TW may be a valid alternative to the detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA. The proportion of asymptomatic TRANS and pre-symptomatic cases is elevated and reinforces the need of universal precautions and frequent surveys to limit the spread of the disease TRANS disease MESHD.

    Dynamics of epidemic diseases MESHD without guaranteed immunity

    Authors: Kurt Langfeld

    id:2007.15971v1 Date: 2020-07-31 Source: arXiv

    The global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic suggests a novel type of disease MESHD disease spread TRANS spread dynamics. WHO states that there is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies SERO are immune from a second infection MESHD [WHO]. Conventional mathematical models consider cases for which a recovered individual either becomes susceptible again or develops an immunity. Here, we study the case where infected agents recover and only develop immunity if they are continuously infected for some time. Otherwise, they become susceptible again. We show that field theory bounds the peak of the infectious rate. Consequently, the theory's phases characterise the disease MESHD dynamics: (i) a pandemic phase and (ii) a response regime. The model excellently describes the epidemic spread of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the city of Wuhan, China. We find that only 30% of the recovered agents have developed an immunity. We anticipate our paper to influence the decision making upon balancing the economic impact and the pandemic impact on society. As long as disease MESHD controlling measures keep the disease MESHD dynamics in the "response regime", a pandemic escalation ('second wave') is ruled out.

    Regional now- and forecasting for data reported with delay: A case study in COVID-19 infections MESHD

    Authors: Giacomo De Nicola; Marc Schneble; Göran Kauermann; Ursula Berger

    id:2007.16058v1 Date: 2020-07-31 Source: arXiv

    Governments around the world continue to act to contain and mitigate the spread of COVID-19. The rapidly evolving situation compels officials and executives to continuously adapt policies and social distancing measures depending on the current state of the spread of the disease TRANS disease MESHD. In this context, it is crucial for policymakers to have a firm grasp on what the current state of the pandemic is as well as to have an idea of how the infective situation is going to unfold in the next days. However, as in many other situations of compulsorily-notifiable diseases MESHD and beyond, cases are reported with delay to a central register, with this delay deferring an up-to-date view of the state of things. We provide a stable tool for monitoring current infection MESHD levels as well as predicting infection MESHD numbers in the immediate future at the regional level. We accomplish this through nowcasting of cases that have not yet been reported as well as through forecasting of future infections MESHD. The two steps are also combined in forenowcasting. We apply our model to German data, for which our focus lies in explaining and predicting infectious behaviour by district, age group TRANS and gender TRANS.

    Impact of urban structure on COVID-19 spread

    Authors: Javier Aguilar; Aleix Bassolas; Gourab Ghoshal; Surendra Hazarie; Alec Kirkley; Mattia Mazzoli; Sandro Meloni; Sayat Mimar; Vincenzo Nicosia; Jose J. Ramasco; Adam Sadilek

    id:2007.15367v1 Date: 2020-07-30 Source: arXiv

    The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has created a global crisis of massive scale. Prior research indicates that human mobility is one of the key factors involved in viral spreading. Indeed, in a connected planet, rapid world-wide spread is enabled by long-distance air-, land- and sea-transportation among countries and continents, and subsequently fostered by commuting trips within densely populated cities. While early travel TRANS restrictions contribute to delayed disease MESHD disease spread TRANS spread, their utility is much reduced if the disease MESHD has a long incubation period TRANS or if there is asymptomatic TRANS transmission TRANS. Given the lack of vaccines, public health officials have mainly relied on non-pharmaceutical interventions, including social distancing measures, curfews, and stay-at-home orders. Here we study the impact of city organization on its susceptibility to disease MESHD disease spread TRANS, and amenability to interventions. Cities can be classified according to their mobility in a spectrum between compact-hierarchical and decentralized-sprawled. Our results show that even though hierarchical cities are more susceptible to the rapid spread of epidemics, their organization makes mobility restrictions quite effective. Conversely, sprawled cities are characterized by a much slower initial spread, but are less responsive to mobility restrictions. These findings hold globally across cities in diverse geographical locations and a broad range of sizes. Our empirical measurements are confirmed by a simulation of COVID-19 spread in urban areas through a compartmental model. These results suggest that investing resources on early monitoring and prompt ad-hoc interventions in more vulnerable cities may prove most helpful in containing and reducing the impact of present and future pandemics.

    Use of a humanized anti-CD6 monoclonal antibody SERO (itolizumab) in elderly TRANS patients with moderate COVID-19

    Authors: Mayra Ramos-Suzarte; Yayquier Diaz; Yordanis Martin; Nestor Antonio Calderon; William Santiago; Orlando Vinet; Yulieski La O; Jorge Perez; Augusto Oyarzabal; Yoan Perez; Geidy Lorenzo; Meylan Cepeda; Danay Saavedra; Zayma Mazorra; Daymys Estevez; Patricia Lorenzo-Luaces; Carmen Valenzuela; Armando Caballero; Kalet leon; Tania Crombet; Carlos Jorge Hidalgo

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.24.20153833 Date: 2020-07-30 Source: medRxiv

    Abstract Introduction: The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome MESHD Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused a recent outbreak of Coronavirus Disease MESHD (COVID-19). In Cuba, the first case of COVID-19 was reported on March 11. Elderly TRANS with multiple comorbidities are particularly susceptible to adverse clinical outcomes in the course of SARS CoV-2 infection MESHD. During the outbreak, a local transmission TRANS event took place in a nursing home in Villa Clara province, Cuba, in which nineteen elderly TRANS residents were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Methods: Based on the increased susceptibility to viral-induced cytokine release syndrome MESHD inducing respiratory and systemic complications in this population, the patients were included in an expanded access clinical trial to receive itolizumab, an anti-CD6 monoclonal antibody SERO. Results: All the patients had underlying medical conditions. The product was well tolerated. After the first dose, the course of the disease MESHD was favorable and 18 out of 19 (94.7%) patients were discharged clinically recovered with negative RT-PCR at 13 days (median). One dose of itolizumab, circulating IL-6 decreased in the first 24-48 hours in patients with high baseline values, whereas in patients with low levels, this concentration remained over low values. To preliminary assess the effect of itolizumab, a control group was selected among the Cuban COVID-19 patients, which did not receive immunomodulatory therapy. Control subjects were well-matched regarding age TRANS, comorbidities and severity of the disease MESHD. Every three moderately ill patients treated with itolizumab, one admission in intensive care unit (ICU) was prevented. Discussion/Conclusion: Itolizumab was well tolerated. Its effect is associated with a reduction and controlling IL-6 serum SERO levels. Moreover, treated patients had a favorable clinical outcome, considering their poor prognosis. This treatment is associated significantly with a decrease the risk to be admitted in ICU and reduced 10 times the risk of death MESHD. This study corroborates that the timely use of itolizumab, in combination with other antiviral and anticoagulant therapies, is associated with a reduction the COVID-19 disease MESHD worsening and mortality. The humanized antibody SERO itolizumab emerges as a therapeutic alternative for patients with COVID-19 and suggests its possible use in patients with cytokine release syndrome MESHD from other pathologies.

    Reduced susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 in metropolitan regions

    Authors: Thomas J. Barrett; Karen C. Patterson; Timothy M. James; Peter Kruger

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.28.20163154 Date: 2020-07-30 Source: medRxiv

    The coronavirus pandemic is wreaking public health, social, and economic havoc across the globe, and to date a variety of strategies have been implemented to attempt to control the spread of disease TRANS disease MESHD [1, 2]. A critical unknown for policy planning is the number of people who have been infected and are no longer susceptible [3]. Tests for active SARS-CoV-2 infection MESHD or antibody SERO presence can provide an indication, but both are prone to selection bias, under-representative population sampling and insufficient reliability [4, 5]. Here, we present an alternative to determine residual susceptibilities based on the analysis of observed population-wide disease MESHD dynamics data. For four highly-affected countries, we directly compared the dynamics in the largest metropolitan regions with the rest of the countries. We show that substantial susceptibility reductions are measurable in the metropolitan regions, which all continued in a phase of exponential growth of case numbers for a relatively longer time before public health interventions were introduced. Compared to these interventions, the reduction in metropolitan region susceptibility had a substantial role in the post-growth decline in infection MESHD rates. Reduced population susceptibility has far reaching consequences on future policy responses and disease MESHD forecasts including vaccine trial planning and, in the case of a second epidemic wave, higher population-normalised mortality rates for non-metropolitan regions.

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MeSH Disease
Human Phenotype
Transmission
Seroprevalence


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