Corpus overview


Overview

MeSH Disease

Human Phenotype

Pneumonia (119)

Fever (30)

Cough (27)

Fatigue (10)

Respiratory distress (8)


Transmission

Seroprevalence
    displaying 1 - 10 records in total 119
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    COVID-19 outbreak, social distancing and mass testing in Kenya - Insights from a mathematical model 

    Authors: Rachel Waema Mbogo; John W. Oddhiambo

    doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-77523/v1 Date: 2020-09-14 Source: ResearchSquare

    As reported by the World Health Organization (WHO), the world is currently facing a devastating pandemic of a novel coronavirus ( COVID -19), which started as an outbreak of pneumonia HP neumonia MESHDof unknown cause in the Wuhan city of China in December 2019. Within days and weeks, the COVID -19 pandemic had spread to over 210 countries. By the end of April, COVID -19 had caused over three million confirmed cases TRANS of i nfections MESHDand 230,000 fatalities globally. The trend poses a huge threat to global public health. Understanding the early transmission TRANS dynamics of the i nfection MESHDand evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission TRANS to occur in new areas.We employed a SEIHCRD delay differential mathematical transmission TRANS model with reported Kenyan data on cases of COVID -19 to estimate how transmission TRANS varies over time and which population to target for mass testing. The model is concise in structure, and successfully captures the course of the COVID -19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak and the vulnerable populations. The results from the model gives insights to the government on the population to target for mass testing. The government should target population in the informal settlement for mass testing. People with pre-existing medical and non-medical conditions should be identified and given special medical care.  With aggressive effective mass testing and adhering to the government directives and guidelines, we can get rid of COVID -19 epidemic.

    Clinical Characteristics, Risk Factors and Predictive Value of COVID-19 Pneumonia HP: A Retrospective Study of 173 Patients in Wuhan, China

    Authors: Yang Zhang; Jun Xue; Mi Yan; Jing Chen; Hai Liu; Shao-Bo Wang; Jian-Xing Luo; Fang Yang; Jian-Yuan Tang; Xiao-Yu Hu

    doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-76134/v1 Date: 2020-09-11 Source: ResearchSquare

    Background: COVID-19 is a globally emerging infectious disease MESHD. As the global epidemic continues to spread, the risk of COVID-19 transmission TRANS and diffusion in the world will also remain. Currently, several studies describing its clinical characteristics have focused on the initial outbreak, but rarely to the later stage. Here we described clinical characteristics, risk factors for disease severity and in-hospital outcome in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD from Wuhan. Methods: Patients with COVID-19 pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD admitted to Cancer Center, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology from February 13 to March 8, 2020, were retrospectively enrolled. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for disease severity and in-hospital outcome and establish predictive models. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the predictive value of above models.Results: 106 (61.3%) of the patients were female TRANS. The mean age TRANS of study populations was 62.0 years, of whom 73 (42.2%) had underlying comorbidities mainly including hypertension HP hypertension MESHD (24.9%). The most common symptoms on admission were fever HP fever MESHD (67.6%) and cough HP (60.1%), digestive symptoms (22.0%) was also very common. Older age TRANS (OR: 3.420; 95%Cl: 1.415-8.266; P=0.006), diarrhea HP diarrhea MESHD (OR: 0.143; 95%Cl: 0.033-0.611; P=0.009) and lymphopenia HP lymphopenia MESHD (OR: 4.769; 95%Cl: 2.019-11.266; P=0.000) were associated with severe illness on admission; the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of predictive model were 0.860 (95%CI: 0.802-0.918; P=0.000). Older age TRANS (OR: 0.309; 95%Cl: 0.142-0.674; P=0.003), leucopenia (OR: 0.165; 95%Cl: 0.034-0.793; P=0.025), increased lactic dehydrogenase (OR: 0.257; 95%Cl: 0.100-0.659; P=0.005) and interleukins-6 levels (OR: 0.294; 95%Cl: 0.099-0.872; P=0.027) were associated with poor in-hospital outcome; AUC of predictive model were 0.752 (95%CI: 0.681-0.824; P=0.000).Conclusion: Older patients with diarrhea HP diarrhea MESHD and lymphopenia HP lymphopenia MESHD need early identification and timely intervention to prevent the progression to severe COVID-19 pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD. However, older patients with leucopenia, increased lactic dehydrogenase and interleukins-6 levels are at a high risk for poor in-hospital outcome.Trial registration: ChiCTR2000029549

    Coronavirus (Covid-19) Pandemic: Outbreak, Current Scenario, and Impact on Human Physiology in Pakistan

    Authors: Komal Jabeen; Muhammad Basit Husnain Haider; Zeshan Haider; Sultan Ali; Ali Hassan; Adnan Khan Niazi

    id:10.20944/preprints202009.0040.v1 Date: 2020-09-02 Source: Preprints.org

    Coronavirus that is also known as COVID-19 disease is produced by SARSCoV-2. This causative agent is highly contagious and can cause potentially fatal pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD worldwide with serious public health concerns. In the beginning among infected individuals, most of them were those who were mainly shown to the wet animal market in a big city of China known as Wuhan. So, it was suggested that this was almost certainly the zoonotic source of COVID-19illness. The transitional source of origin and their mode of transmission TRANS to humans were not known obviously. Conversely, from human to human rapidly transformation have been confirmed generally. Currently, there is no availability of FDA approved clinically antiviral drugs and/or vaccines to be used against the COVID-19. Afterward, SARS-CoV MESHD and MERS-CoV, the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 has been manifested as the third sketch of an enormously pathogenic coronavirus into human population globally. In this review, we provide a brief overview of the history of COVID-19 in Pakistan up-to 18th weeks after beginning, current situation, epidemiology, and its impact on the human population. Moreover, we focused on physiological variation during the incubation period TRANS, genome analysis of SARS-CoV2, supportive treatment approaches, and safety measures in the Pakistani population, which may be supportive for combating the risk of COVID-19 epidemic. We also reviewed the future approaches for the development of therapeutic interventions and vaccines to cope with the COVID-19 epidemic.

    Clinical Characteristics of Severe Covid Pneumonia HP: Exploring New Trends in ICU

    Authors: Aftab Akhtar; Sheher Bano; Ahtesham Iqbal; Moazma Ramzan; Aayesha Qadeer; Syed Waqar Hussain; Anam Saleem; Omair-ul-Haq Lodhi; Sana Zubair; Abdul Hameed kiani

    doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-69224/v1 Date: 2020-08-31 Source: ResearchSquare

    Background: In late December 2019, Covid-19 emerged as clusters of pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD of unknown cause in a province of china, Wuhan. Etiological agent was identified as novel coronavirus that resembles severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East Respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) MESHD and has zoonotic transmission TRANS. Covid pneumonia HP can remain asymptomatic TRANS, present as mild infection, severe HP infection, severe MESHD pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD or respiratory failure HP respiratory failure MESHD. Diagnosis is based on rRT-PCR carried out on respiratory secretions. Covid related mortality exceeds 50% once patient requires ICU admission. Objective: To study the characteristics of ICU population admitted to ICU of Shifa International hospital.Results: we prospectively analysed 74 patients which included 43.3% females TRANS and 56.7% males TRANS. Commonest symptoms were shortness of breath MESHD (94.5%), fever HP fever MESHD (74.3%) and cough HP (74.3%). Most of our study population consisted of non-smokers (79.7%) and had hypertension HP hypertension MESHD (59.4%) followed by diabetes MESHD (47.2%). Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) and azithromycin combination is superior to hydroxychloroquine and doxycycline in reducing mortality (p=0.023) whereas Doxycycline alone resulted in increased mortality (p=0.009). Those who did not require antibiotics or required only narrow spectrum antibiotics had increased survival and reduced requirement of invasive mechanical ventilation (p=< 0.0001). in our study population, (44.9%) developed acute kidney injury HP acute kidney injury MESHD, 2.7% needed re-intubations 10.8% developed surgical emphysema HP emphysema MESHD and 2.7 % thromboembolic MESHD events despite full anticoagulation. ICU mortality was 41.8% and was higher in females TRANS (59.4%, p=0.008), those who had SOFA score > 3.5 at time of admission, raised D-Dimers > 931 ng/ml, NLR > 9.2. It was further high in those who required invasive mechanical ventilation and vasopressor support (58.1% mortality p=< 0.001). ICU stay was more prolonged in those requiring invasive mechanical ventilation as compared to those who did not. (23 days vs 6 days, p=0.001). Mean plateau pressure was 19.6 ± 7.6; mean Driving pressures 14.4 ± 4.6; mean PaO2/FiO2 150.7 ± 73.9; mean SPO2/FiO2 173.9 ± 106.9; mean PEEP was 8.2 ±4.33.Conclusion: We concluded that severe covid pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD is common amongst males TRANS, non-smokers those who had comorbid. HCQ and azithromycin combination is superior to combination of HCQ and doxycycline or doxycycline alone and QT prolongation MESHD is a rare complication. Baseline NLR, APACHI II, SOFA, SAPS II, NUTRIC scores, D-Dimers, invasive ventilation and vasopressor support are important tools to predict ICU mortality. Invasive mechanical ventilation carries higher mortality and associated with more prolonged ICU stay. AKI is most common complication followed by shock HP and surgical emphysema HP emphysema MESHD. CRP, Ferritin levels has no impact on outcome.

    A Systematic Review on Coronavirus Disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19)

    Authors: Hira Karim; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan

    id:10.20944/preprints202008.0516.v1 Date: 2020-08-24 Source: Preprints.org

    Emerging and reemerging pathogens is a global challenge for public health. Recently, a novel coronavirus disease MESHD emerged in Wuhan, Hubei province of China, in December 2019. It is named COVID-19 by World Health Organization (WHO). It is known to be caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 MESHD (SARS-CoV-2) that affects the lower respiratory tract and manifests as pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD in humans. Coronaviruses (CoVs) are structurally more complicated as compared to other RNA viruses. This viral epidemic has led to the deaths of many, including the elderly TRANS or those with chronic disease MESHD or compromised immunity. Viruses cause infection MESHD and diseases in humans of varying degrees, upper respiratory tract infections MESHD respiratory tract infections HP ( URTIs MESHD) cause common cold while lower respiratory tract infections HP induce pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD, bronchitis HP bronchitis MESHD, and even severe acute respiratory syndrome MESHD (SARS). The costs of COVID-19 are not limited. It equally affects all the medical, sociological, psychological, and economic aspects globally. This is regarded as the third deadly outbreak in the last two decades after Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS MESHD (2002–2003) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS MESHD (2012). Based on the sequence homology of SARS-CoV-2, different animal sources including bats, snakes, and pangolins have been reported as potential carriers TRANS of this viral strain. Real-time RT-PCR represents the primary method for the diagnosis of new emerging viral strain SARS-CoV-2. The transmission TRANS dynamics suggest that SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted from person-to-person through direct contact or coughing HP, sneezing HP, and by respiratory droplets. Several anti-viral treatments including lopinavir/ritonavir, remdesivir, chloroquine phosphate, and abidor are also suggested with different recommendations and prescriptions. Protective and preventive strategies as suggested by various health organization i.e. WHO and US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) must be adopted by everyone. This review covers the important aspects of novel COVID-19 including characteristics, virology, symptoms, diagnostics, clinical aspects, transmission TRANS dynamics, and protective measures of COVID-19.

    Early onset SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia MESHD pneumonia HP in a preterm neonate – Probably acquired through vertical transmission TRANS

    Authors: Dr Shilpa Kalane; Dr Asha Gokhale; Dr Sampada Patwardhan

    doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-58363/v1 Date: 2020-08-12 Source: ResearchSquare

    With the increasing number of published case reports and studies, probability of newborns acquiring COVID-19 infection through vertical transmission TRANS is on rise. Although the modes of transmission TRANS for neonatal COVID-19 infection MESHD are becoming clearer, the clinical spectrum in the form of radiology and laboratory parameters have still not been studied well. We report a case of a preterm neonate, whose mother had tested positive for COVID-19 infection MESHD before delivery. The neonate was asphyxiated and had meconium aspiration HP aspiration MESHD syndrome. RT-PCR of her endotracheal secretions for COVID-19 tested positive within 24 hours of life and at 72 hours. The laboratory investigations were suggestive of cytokine storm syndrome (CSS) and the CT scan chest supported the diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD. This is probably the youngest neonate with COVID-19 infection MESHD showing CSS.  

    A Large-Scale Clinical Validation Study Using nCapp Cloud Plus Terminal by Frontline Doctors for the Rapid Diagnosis of COVID-19 and COVID-19 pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD in China

    Authors: Dawei Yang; Tao Xu; Xun Wang; Deng Chen; Ziqiang Zhang; Lichuan Zhang; Jie Liu; Kui Xiao; Li Bai; Yong Zhang; Lin Zhao; Lin Tong; Chaomin Wu; Yaoli Wang; Chunling Dong; Maosong Ye; Yu Xu; Zhenju Song; Hong Chen; Jing Li; Jiwei Wang; Fei Tan; Hai Yu; Jian Zhou; Jinming Yu; Chunhua Du; Hongqing Zhao; Yu Shang; Linian Huang; Jianping Zhao; Yang Jin; Charles A. Powell; Yuanlin Song; Chunxue Bai

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.07.20163402 Date: 2020-08-11 Source: medRxiv

    Background The outbreak of coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global pandemic acute infectious disease MESHD, especially with the features of possible asymptomatic TRANS carriers TRANS and high contagiousness. It causes acute respiratory distress HP respiratory distress MESHD syndrome and results in a high mortality rate if pneumonia HP is involved. Currently, it is difficult to quickly identify asymptomatic TRANS cases or COVID-19 patients with pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD due to limited access to reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) nucleic acid tests and CT scans, which facilitates the spread of the disease TRANS at the community level, and contributes to the overwhelming of medical resources in intensive care units. Goal This study aimed to develop a scientific and rigorous clinical diagnostic tool for the rapid prediction of COVID-19 cases based on a COVID-19 clinical case database in China, and to assist global frontline doctors to efficiently and precisely diagnose asymptomatic TRANS COVID-19 patients and cases who had a false-negative RT-PCR test result. Methods With online consent, and the approval of the ethics committee of Zhongshan Hospital Fudan Unversity (approval number B2020-032R) to ensure that patient privacy is protected, clinical information has been uploaded in real-time through the New Coronavirus Intelligent Auto-diagnostic Assistant Application of cloud plus terminal (nCapp) by doctors from different cities (Wuhan, Shanghai, Harbin, Dalian, Wuxi, Qingdao, Rizhao, and Bengbu) during the COVID-19 outbreak in China. By quality control and data anonymization on the platform, a total of 3,249 cases from COVID-19 high-risk groups were collected. These patients had SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test results and chest CT scans, both of which were used as the gold standard for the diagnosis of COVID-19 and COVID-19 pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD. In particular, the dataset included 137 indeterminate cases who initially did not have RT-PCR tests and subsequently had positive RT-PCR results, 62 suspected cases who initially had false-negative RT-PCR test results and subsequently had positive RT-PCR results, and 122 asymptomatic TRANS cases who had positive RT-PCR test results, amongst whom 31 cases were diagnosed. We also integrated the function of a survey in nCapp to collect user feedback from frontline doctors. Findings We applied the statistical method of a multi-factor regression model to the training dataset (1,624 cases) and developed a prediction model for COVID-19 with 9 clinical indicators that are fast and accessible: 'Residing or visiting history in epidemic regions', 'Exposure history to COVID-19 patient', 'Dry cough HP', ' Fatigue HP', 'Breathlessness', 'No body temperature decrease after antibiotic treatment', 'Fingertip blood SERO oxygen saturation<=93%', ' Lymphopenia HP Lymphopenia MESHD', and 'C-reactive protein (CRP) increased'. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for the model was 0.88 (95% CI: 0.86, 0.89) in the training dataset and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.82, 0.86) in the validation dataset (1,625 cases). To ensure the sensitivity SERO of the model, we used a cutoff value of 0.09. The sensitivity SERO and specificity of the model were 98.0% (95% CI: 96.9%, 99.1%) and 17.3% (95% CI: 15.0%, 19.6%), respectively, in the training dataset, and 96.5% (95% CI: 95.1%, 98.0%) and 18.8% (95% CI: 16.4%, 21.2%), respectively, in the validation dataset. In the subset of the 137 indeterminate cases who initially did not have RT-PCR tests and subsequently had positive RT-PCR results, the model predicted 132 cases, accounting for 96.4% (95% CI: 91.7%, 98.8%) of the cases. In the subset of the 62 suspected cases who initially had false-negative RT-PCR test results and subsequently had positive RT-PCR results, the model predicted 59 cases, accounting for 95.2% (95% CI: 86.5%, 99.0%) of the cases. Considering the specificity of the model, we used a cutoff value of 0.32. The sensitivity SERO and specificity of the model were 83.5% (95% CI: 80.5%, 86.4%) and 83.2% (95% CI: 80.9%, 85.5%), respectively, in the training dataset, and 79.6% (95% CI: 76.4%, 82.8%) and 81.3% (95% CI: 78.9%, 83.7%), respectively, in the validation dataset, which is very close to the published AI model. The results of the online survey 'Questionnaire Star' showed that 90.9% of nCapp users in WeChat mini programs were 'satisfied' or 'very satisfied' with the tool. The WeChat mini program received a significantly higher satisfaction rate than other platforms, especially for 'availability and sharing convenience of the App' and 'fast speed of log-in and data entry'. Discussion With the assistance of nCapp, a mobile-based diagnostic tool developed from a large database that we collected from COVID-19 high-risk groups in China, frontline doctors can rapidly identify asymptomatic TRANS patients and avoid misdiagnoses of cases with false-negative RT-PCR results. These patients require timely isolation or close medical supervision. By applying the model, medical resources can be allocated more reasonably, and missed diagnoses can be reduced. In addition, further education and interaction among medical professionals can improve the diagnostic efficiency for COVID-19, thus avoiding the transmission TRANS of the disease from asymptomatic TRANS patients at the community level.

    Clinical characteristics of neonates with coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19): a systematic review

    Authors: Yuan Hu; Jing Xiong; Yuan Shi

    doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-50795/v1 Date: 2020-07-29 Source: ResearchSquare

    This study aimed to summarize the existing literature on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection MESHD in newborns to clarify the clinical features and outcomes of neonates with COVID-19. A systematic search was performed in PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Wanfang Data, and VIP databases from January 1, 2019 to April 30, 2020. The references of relevant studies were also searched. A descriptive summary was organized by aspects of clinical presentations (symptoms, laboratory examinations, and imaging) and outcomes. We identified 14 studies reporting 18 newborns with COVID-19. The most common clinical manifestations were fever HP fever MESHD (62.5%), shortness of breath MESHD (50.0%), diarrhea HP diarrhea MESHD/ vomiting HP vomiting MESHD/feeding intolerance(43.8%), cough HP (37.5%), dyspnea HP dyspnea MESHD (25.0%), and nasal congestion/runny nose/ sneeze HP(25.0%). Atypical symptoms included jaundice HP jaundice MESHD and convulsion MESHD. Lymphocyte numbers decreased in 5 cases, and radiographic findings were likely to show pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD. All newborns recovered and discharged from the hospital, and there was no death.Conclusion: Clinical symptoms of neonatal SARS-CoV-2 infection MESHD are atypical, most of them are mild. Up to now, the prognosis of newborns is good, and there is no death. Intrauterine vertical transmission TRANS is possible, but confirmed evidence is still lacking. The Long-term follow-up of potential influences of SARS-CoV-2 infection MESHD on neonates need further exploration.

    Clinical characteristics and risk factors for mortality in patients with coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 in intensive care unit: a single-center, retrospective, observational study in China

    Authors: Fangfang Sai; Xiaolei Liu; Lanyu Li; Yan Ye; Changqing Zhu; Ying Hang; Conghua Huang; Lei Tian; Xinhui Xu; Huan Huang

    doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-46078/v1 Date: 2020-07-20 Source: ResearchSquare

    Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a potentially life-threatening contagious disease which has spread TRANS all over the world. Risk factors for the clinical outcomes of COVID-19 pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD in intensive care unit (ICU) have not yet been well determined. Methods: In this retrospective, single-centered, observational study, we consecutively included 47 patients with confirmed COVID-19 who were admitted to the ICU of Leishenshan Hospital in Wuhan, China, from February 24 to April 5, 2020. Clinical characteristics and outcomes were collected and compared between survivors and non-survivors. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore the risk factors associated with death MESHD in patients of COVID-19.Results: The study cohort included 47 adult TRANS patients with a median age TRANS of 70.55±12.52 years, and 30 (63.8%) patients were men. Totally 15 (31.9%) patients died. Compared with survivors, non-survivors were more likely to develop septic shock MESHD shock HP (6 [40%] patients vs 3 [9.4%] patients ), disseminated intravascular coagulation HP intravascular coagulation MESHD (3 [21.4%] vs 0), and had higher score of APACHE II (25.07±8.03 vs 15.56±5.95), CURB-65 (3[2-4] vs 2[1-3]), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) (7[5-9] vs 3[1-6]), higher level of D-dimer (5.74 [2.32-18] vs 2.05 [1.09-4.00] ) and neutrophil count (9.4[7.68-14.54] vs 5.32[3.85-9.34] ). SOFA score (OR 1.47, 1.01–2.13; p=0.0042) and lymphocyte count (OR 0.02, 0.00–0.86; p=0.042) on admission were independently risk factors for mortality. Patients with higher lymphocyte count (>0.63×109/L) and lower SOFA score ≤4 on admission had a significantly well prognosis than those with lower lymphocyte count (≤0.63×109/L) and higher SOFA score >4 in overall survival.Conclusions: Higher SOFA score and lower lymphocyte count on admission were associated with poor prognosis of patients with COVID-19 in ICU. Lymphocyte count may serve as a promising prognostic biomarker.

    COVID-19 scenarios for the United States

    Authors: - I IHME COVID-19 Forecasting Team; Simon I Hay

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.12.20151191 Date: 2020-07-14 Source: medRxiv

    The United States (US) has not been spared in the ongoing pandemic of novel coronavirus disease MESHD. COVID-19, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 MESHD (SARS-CoV-2), continues to cause death MESHD and disease in all 50 states, as well as significant economic damage wrought by the non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) adopted in attempts to control transmission TRANS. We use a deterministic, Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered (SEIR) compartmental framework to model possible trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 infections MESHD and the impact of NPI at the state level. Model performance SERO was tested against reported deaths from 01 February to 04 July 2020. Using this SEIR model and projections of critical driving covariates ( pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD seasonality, mobility, testing rates, and mask use per capita), we assessed some possible futures of the COVID-19 pandemic from 05 July through 31 December 2020. We explored future scenarios that included feasible assumptions about NPIs including social distancing mandates (SDMs) and levels of mask use. The range of infection MESHD, death MESHD, and hospital demand outcomes revealed by these scenarios show that action taken during the summer of 2020 will have profound public health impacts through to the year end. Encouragingly, we find that an emphasis on universal mask use may be sufficient to ameliorate the worst effects of epidemic resurgences in many states. Masks may save as many as 102,795 (55,898-183,374) lives, when compared to a plausible reference scenario in December. In addition, widespread mask use may markedly reduce the need for more socially and economically deleterious SDMs.

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MeSH Disease
Human Phenotype
Transmission
Seroprevalence


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