Corpus overview


Overview

MeSH Disease

Human Phenotype

Transmission

Seroprevalence
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    A single-cell mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 induced pyroptosis and the anti-inflammatory response to the drug tranilast

    Authors: Sara J Hamis; Fiona R Macfarlane

    id:2008.04172v1 Date: 2020-08-10 Source: arXiv

    Pyroptosis is an inflammatory mode of cell death MESHD that contributes to the cytokine storm associated with severe cases of coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19). Central to pyroptosis induced by severe acute respiratory syndrome MESHD coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the formation of the NLRP3 inflammasome. Inflammasome formation, and by extension pyroptosis, may be inhibited by certain anti-inflammatory drugs. One such drug, tranilast, is currently being evaluated as a COVID-19 treatment target in a clinical trial. In this study, we present a single-cell mathematical model that captures the formation of the NLRP3 inflammasome, pyroptotic cell death MESHD and drug-responses to tranilast. The model is formulated in terms of a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that describe the dynamics of proteins involved in pyroptosis. The model demonstrates that tranilast delays the formation of the NLRP3 inflammasome, and thus may alter the mode of cell death MESHD from inflammatory (pyroptosis) to non-inflammatory (e.g., apoptosis).

    COVID19 Tracking: An Interactive Tracking, Visualizing and Analyzing Platform

    Authors: Zhou Yang; Jiwei Xu; Zhenhe Pan; Fang Jin

    id:2008.04285v1 Date: 2020-08-10 Source: arXiv

    The Coronavirus Disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19) has now become a pandemic, inflicting millions of people and causing tens of thousands of deaths MESHD. To better understand the dynamics of COVID-19, we present a comprehensive COVID-19 tracking and visualization platform that pinpoints the dynamics of the COVID-19 worldwide. Four essential components are implemented: 1) presenting the visualization map of COVID-19 confirmed cases TRANS and total counts all over the world; 2) showing the worldwide trends of COVID-19 at multi-grained levels; 3) provide multi-view comparisons, including confirmed cases TRANS per million people, mortality rate and accumulative cure rate; 4) integrating a multi-grained view of the disease MESHD disease spreading TRANS spreading dynamics in China and showing how the epidemic is taken under control in China.

    Association of mental disorders with SARS-CoV-2 infection MESHD infection and severe HP and severe health outcomes: a nationwide cohort study

    Authors: Ha-Lim Jeon; Jun Soo Kwon; So-Hee Park; Ju-Young Shin

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.05.20169201 Date: 2020-08-07 Source: medRxiv

    Background: No epidemiological data exists for the association between mental disorders and the risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome MESHD coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection MESHD and coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19) severity. Aims: To evaluate the association between mental disorders and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection MESHD infection and severe HP and severe outcomes following COVID-19. Methods: We performed a cohort study using the Korean COVID-19 patient database based on the national health insurance data. Each patient with a mental or behavioral disorder (diagnosed during six months prior to the first SARS-CoV-2 test) was matched by age TRANS, sex, and Charlson comorbidity index with up to four patients without mental disorders. SARS-CoV-2 positivity risk and risk of death MESHD or severe events (intensive care unit admission, use of mechanical ventilation, and acute respiratory distress HP syndrome MESHD) post- infection MESHD were calculated using conditional logistic regression analysis. Results: Among 230,565 patients tested for SARS-CoV-2, 33,653 (14.6%) had mental disorders, 928/33,653 (2.76%) tested positive, and 56/928 (6.03%) died. In multivariate analysis with the matched cohort, there was no association between mental disorders and SARS-CoV-2 positivity risk (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92-1.12); however, a higher risk was associated with schizophrenia HP-related disorders (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.02-1.81). Among confirmed cases TRANS, mortality risk significantly increased in patients with mental disorders (OR, 1.84, 95% CI, 1.07-3.15). Conclusion: Mental disorders are likely contributing factors of mortality following COVID-19. Although the infection MESHD infection risk TRANS infection risk TRANS risk did not increase in overall mental disorders, patients with schizophrenia HP-related disorders were more vulnerable to the infection MESHD.

    Is There a Relationship Between Climate, Morphology and Urbanization and COVID19? Preliminary Analysis of Environmental and Pandemic Data in the Lombardy Region (Northern Italy)

    Authors: Massimiliano Fazzini; Claudio Bna; Alessandro Cecili; Andrea Giuliacci; Sonia Illuminati; Fabrizio Pregliasco; Claudia Baresi; Enrico Miccadei

    id:10.20944/preprints202008.0163.v1 Date: 2020-08-06 Source: preprints.org

    The coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is the defining global health and socioeconomic crisis of our time and represents the greatest challenge faced by the world since the end of the Second World War. The academic literature indicates that climatic features, specifically the temperature and absolute humidity, are very important factors affecting infectious pulmonary disease MESHD epidemics (e.g., SARS, MERS); however, the influence of climatic parameters on COVID-19 remains extremely controversial. The goal of this study is to quantify the existing relationship between several daily climate parameters (temperature, relative humidity, accumulated precipitation, solar radiation, wind direction and intensity, and evaporation), local morphological parameters, and new daily positive swabs for COVID-19, which represents the only parameter that can be statistically used to quantify the pandemic. The daily deaths MESHD parameter was not considered because it is not reliable due to frequent administrative errors. Daily data on meteorological conditions and new cases of COVID-19 were collected for the Lombardy area from March 1, 2020, to April 20, 2020. This region in Italy exhibited the largest number of official deaths MESHD in the world per million inhabitants, with a value of approximately 1700 per million on june 30, 2020. Moreover, the apparent lethality was approximately 17% in this area, mainly due to the considerable housing density and the extensive presence of industrial and craft areas. The Mann-Kendall test and multivariate statistical analysis showed that none of the considered climatic variables exhibited statistically significant relationships with the epidemiological evolution of COVID-19, at least in the spring months in temperate subcontinental climate areas, with the exception of solar radiation, which was directly related and showed an otherwise low explained variability of approximately 20%. Furthermore, the average temperatures of two highly representative meteorological stations of Molise and Lucania, the most weakly affected by the pandemic. The temperatures at these stations were approximately 1.5°C lower than that in the cities in Lombardy of Bergamo and Brescia, again confirming that a significant relationship between the increase in temperature and decrease in virology from COVID-19 was not evident, at least in the Italian peninsula.

    An improved methodology for estimating the prevalence SERO of SARS-CoV-2

    Authors: Virag Patel; Catherine McCarthy; Rachel A Taylor; Ruth Moir; Louise A Kelly; Emma L Snary

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.04.20168187 Date: 2020-08-06 Source: medRxiv

    Since the identification of Coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome MESHD coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in China in December 2019, there have been more than 17 million cases of the disease MESHD in 216 countries worldwide. Comparisons of prevalence SERO estimates between different communities can inform policy decisions regarding safe travel TRANS between countries, help to assess when to implement (or remove) disease MESHD control measures and identify the risk of over-burdening healthcare providers. Estimating the true prevalence SERO can, however, be challenging because officially reported figures are likely to be significant underestimates of the true burden of COVID-19 within a community. Previous methods for estimating the prevalence SERO fail to incorporate differences between populations (such as younger populations having higher rates of asymptomatic TRANS cases) and so comparisons between, for example, countries, can be misleading. Here, we present an improved methodology for estimating COVID-19 prevalence SERO. We take the reported number of cases and deaths MESHD (together with population size) as raw prevalence SERO for the population. We then apply an age TRANS-adjustment to this which allows the age TRANS-distribution of that population to influence the case-fatality rate and the proportion of asymptomatic TRANS cases. Finally, we calculate the likely underreporting factor for the population and use this to adjust our prevalence SERO estimate further. We use our method to estimate the prevalence SERO for 166 countries (or the states of the United States of America, hereafter referred to as US state) where sufficient data were available. Our estimates show that as of the 30th July 2020, the top three countries with the highest estimated prevalence SERO are Brazil (1.26%, 95% CI: 0.96 - 1.37), Kyrgyzstan (1.10%, 95% CI: 0.82 - 1.19) and Suriname (0.58%, 95% CI: 0.44 - 0.63). Brazil is predicted to have the largest proportion of all the current global cases (30.41%, 95%CI: 27.52 - 30.84), followed by the USA (14.52%, 95%CI: 14.26 - 16.34) and India (11.23%, 95%CI: 11.11 - 11.24). Amongst the US states, the highest prevalence SERO is predicted to be in Louisiana (1.07%, 95% CI: 1.02 - 1.12), Florida (0.90%, 95% CI: 0.86 - 0.94) and Mississippi (0.77%, 95% CI: 0.74 - 0.81) whereas amongst European countries, the highest prevalence SERO is predicted to be in Montenegro (0.47%, 95% CI: 0.42 - 0.50), Kosovo (0.35%, 95% CI: 0.29 - 0.37) and Moldova (0.28%, 95% CI: 0.23 - 0.30). Our results suggest that Kyrgyzstan (0.04 tests per predicted case), Brazil (0.04 tests per predicted case) and Suriname (0.29 tests per predicted case) have the highest underreporting out of the countries in the top 25 prevalence SERO. In comparison, Israel (34.19 tests per predicted case), Bahrain (19.82 per predicted case) and Palestine (9.81 tests per predicted case) have the least underreporting. The results of this study may be used to understand the risk between different geographical areas and highlight regions where the prevalence SERO of COVID-19 is increasing most rapidly. The method described is quick and easy to implement. Prevalence SERO estimates should be updated on a regular basis to allow for rapid fluctuations in disease MESHD patterns.

    Clinical Mortality Review in a Large COVID-19 Cohort

    Authors: Mark P Jarrett; Susanne F Schultz; Julie S Lyall; Jason J Wang; Lori Stier; Marcella De Geronimo; Karen L Nelson

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.05.20168146 Date: 2020-08-06 Source: medRxiv

    Background: Northwell Health (Northwell), an integrated health system in New York, treated more than 15000 inpatients with coronavirus disease MESHD (COVID-19) at the US epicenter of the severe acute respiratory syndrome MESHD coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. We describe the demographic characteristics of COVID-19 mortalities, observation of frequent rapid response teams (RRT)/ cardiac arrest HP (CA) calls for non-intensive care unit (ICU) patients, and factors that contributed to RRT/CA calls. Methods: A team of registered nurses reviewed medical records of inpatients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 via polymerase chain reaction (PCR) before or on admission and died between March 13 (first Northwell inpatient expiration) and April 30, 2020 at 15 Northwell hospitals. Findings for these patients were abstracted into a database and statistically analyzed. Findings: Of 2634 COVID-19 mortalities, 56.1% had oxygen saturation levels greater than or equal to 90% on presentation and required no respiratory support. At least one RRT/CA was called on 42.2% of patients at a non-ICU level of care. Before the RRT/CA call, the most recent oxygen saturation levels for 76.6% of non-ICU patients were at least 90%. At the time RRT/CA was called, 43.1% had an oxygen saturation less than 80%. Interpretation: This study represents one of the largest cohorts of reviewed mortalities that also captures data in non-structured fields. Approximately 50% of deaths MESHD occurred at a non-ICU level of care, despite admission to the appropriate care setting with normal staffing. The data imply a sudden, unexpected deterioration in respiratory status requiring RRT/CA in a large number of non-ICU patients. Patients admitted to a non-ICU level of care suffer rapid clinical deterioration MESHD, often with a sudden decrease in oxygen saturation. These patients could benefit from additional monitoring (eg, continuous central oxygenation saturation), although this approach warrants further study.

    Ethnic minority groups in England and Wales - factors affecting the size and timing of elevated COVID-19 mortality: a retrospective cohort study linking Census and death MESHD records

    Authors: Daniel Ayoubkhani; Vahe Nafilyan; Chris White; Peter Goldblatt; Charlotte Gaughan; Louisa Blackwell; Nicky Rogers; Amitava Banerjee; Kamlesh Khunti; Myer Glickman; Ben Humberstone; Ian Diamond

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.03.20167122 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    Objectives: To estimate population-level associations between ethnicity and coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19) mortality, and to investigate how ethnicity-specific mortality risk evolved over the course of the pandemic. Design: Retrospective cohort study using linked administrative data. Setting: England and Wales, deaths MESHD occurring 2 March to 15 May 2020. Participants: Respondents to the 2011 Census of England and Wales aged TRANS [≤]100 years and enumerated in private households, linked to death MESHD registrations and adjusted to account for emigration before the outcome period, who were alive on 1 March 2020 (n=47,872,412). Main outcome measure: Death MESHD related to COVID-19, registered by 29 May 2020. Statistical methods: We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for ethnic minority groups compared with the White population using Cox regression models, controlling for geographical, demographic, socio-economic, occupational, and self-reported health factors. HRs were estimated on the full outcome period and separately for pre- and post-lockdown periods in the UK. Results: In the age TRANS-adjusted models, people from all ethnic minority groups were at elevated risk of COVID-19 mortality; the HRs for Black males TRANS and females TRANS were 3.13 [95% confidence interval: 2.93 to 3.34] and 2.40 [2.20 to 2.61] respectively. However, in the fully adjusted model for females TRANS, the HRs were close to unity for all ethnic groups except Black (1.29 [1.18 to 1.42]). For males TRANS, COVID-19 mortality risk remained elevated for the Black (1.76 [1.63 to 1.90]), Bangladeshi/Pakistani (1.35 [1.21 to 1.49]) and Indian (1.30 [1.19 to 1.43]) groups. The HRs decreased after lockdown for all ethnic groups, particularly Black and Bangladeshi/Pakistani females TRANS. Conclusions: Differences in COVID-19 mortality between ethnic groups were largely attenuated by geographical and socio-economic factors, although some residual differences remained. Lockdown was associated with reductions in excess mortality risk in ethnic minority populations, which has major implications for a second wave of infection MESHD or local spikes. Further research is needed to understand the causal mechanisms underpinning observed differences in COVID-19 mortality between ethnic groups.

    Comparing the impact on COVID-19 mortality of self-imposed behavior change and of government regulations across 13 countries

    Authors: Julian Jamison; Donald Bundy; Dean Jamison; Jacob Spitz; Stephane Verguet

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.02.20166793 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    Background: Countries have adopted different approaches, at different times, to reduce the transmission TRANS of coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19). Cross-country comparison could indicate the relative efficacy of these approaches. We assess various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) over time, comparing the effects of self-imposed (i.e. voluntary) behavior change and of changes enforced via official regulations, by statistically examining their impacts on subsequent death MESHD rates in 13 European countries. Methods and findings: We examine two types of NPI: the introduction of government-enforced closure policies over time; and self-imposed alteration of individual behaviors in response to awareness of the epidemic, in the period prior to regulations. Our proxy for the latter is Google mobility data, which captures voluntary behavior change when disease MESHD salience is sufficiently high. The primary outcome variable is the rate of change in COVID-19 fatalities per day, 16-20 days after interventions take place. Linear multivariate regression analysis is used to evaluate impacts. Voluntarily reduced mobility, occurring prior to government policies, decreases the percent change in deaths MESHD per day by 9.2 percentage points (95% CI 4.5-14.0 pp). Government closure policies decrease the percent change in deaths MESHD per day by 14.0 percentage points (95% CI 10.8-17.2 pp). Disaggregating government policies, the most beneficial are intercity travel TRANS restrictions, cancelling public events, and closing non-essential workplaces. Other sub-components, such as closing schools and imposing stay-at-home rules, show smaller and statistically insignificant impacts. Conclusions: This study shows that NPIs have substantially reduced fatalities arising from COVID-19. Importantly, the effect of voluntary behavior change is of the same order of magnitude as government-mandated regulations. These findings, including the substantial variation across dimensions of closure, have implications for the phased withdrawal of government policies as the epidemic recedes, and for the possible reimposition of regulations if a second wave occurs, especially given the substantial economic and human welfare consequences of maintaining lockdowns.

    Physical activity, BMI and COVID-19: an observational and Mendelian randomisation study

    Authors: Xiaomeng Zhang; Xue Li; Ziwen Sun; Yazhou He; Wei Xu; Harry Campbell; Malcolm G Dunlop; Maria Timofeeva; Evropi Theodoratou

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.01.20166405 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    Physical activity (PA) is known to be a protective lifestyle factor against several non- communicable diseases MESHD while its impact on infectious diseases MESHD, including Coronavirus Disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19) is not as clear. We performed univariate and multivariate logistic regression to identify associations between body mass index (BMI) and both objectively and subjectively measured PA collected prospectively and COVID-19 related outcomes (Overall COVID-19, inpatient COVID-19, outpatient COVID-19, and COVID-19 death MESHD) in the UK Biobank (UKBB) cohort. Subsequently, we tested causality by using two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis. In the multivariable model, the increased acceleration vector magnitude PA (AMPA) was associated with a decreased probability of overall and outpatient COVID-19. No association was found between self-reported moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) or BMI and COVID-19 related outcomes. Although no causal association was found by MR analyses, this may be due to limited power and we conclude policies to encourage and facilitate exercise at a population level during the pandemic should be considered.

    Epidemiological characteristics of SARS-COV-2 in Myanmar

    Authors: Aung Min Thway; Htun Tayza; Tun Tun Win; Ye Minn Tun; Moe Myint Aung; Yan Naung Win; Kyaw M Tun

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.02.20166504 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    Coronavirus disease MESHD (COVID-19) is an infectious disease MESHD caused by a newly discovered severe acute respiratory syndrome MESHD coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In Myanmar, first COVID-19 reported cases were identified on 23rd March 2020. There were 336 reported confirmed cases TRANS, 261 recovered and 6 deaths MESHD through 13th July 2020. The study was a retrospective case series and all COVID-19 confirmed cases TRANS from 23rd March to 13th July 2020 were included. The data series of COVID-19 cases were extracted from the daily official reports of the Ministry of Health and Sports (MOHS), Myanmar and Centers for Disease MESHD Control and Prevention (CDC), Myanmar. Among 336 confirmed cases TRANS, there were 169 cases with reported transmission TRANS events. The median serial interval TRANS was 4 days (IQR 3, 2-5) with the range of 0 - 26 days. The mean of the reproduction number TRANS was 1.44 with (95% CI = 1.30-1.60) by exponential growth method and 1.32 with (95% CI = 0.98-1.73) confident interval by maximum likelihood method. This study outlined the epidemiological characteristics and epidemic parameters of COVID-19 in Myanmar. The estimation parameters in this study can be comparable with other studies and variability of these parameters can be considered when implementing disease MESHD control strategy in Myanmar.

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MeSH Disease
Human Phenotype
Transmission
Seroprevalence


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