### Overview

MeSH Disease

Disease (130)

Infections (125)

Death (111)

Human Phenotype

Fever (46)

Cough (41)

Pneumonia (34)

Fatigue (17)

Hypertension (14)

Transmission

Seroprevalence
displaying 1 - 10 records in total 294
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### Epidemiological characteristics of SARS-COV-2 in Myanmar

Authors: Aung Min Thway; Htun Tayza; Tun Tun Win; Ye Minn Tun; Moe Myint Aung; Yan Naung Win; Kyaw M Tun

doi:10.1101/2020.08.02.20166504 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

Coronavirus disease MESHD (COVID-19) is an infectious disease MESHD caused by a newly discovered severe acute respiratory syndrome MESHD coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In Myanmar, first COVID-19 reported cases were identified on 23rd March 2020. There were 336 reported confirmed cases TRANS, 261 recovered and 6 deaths MESHD through 13th July 2020. The study was a retrospective case series and all COVID-19 confirmed cases TRANS from 23rd March to 13th July 2020 were included. The data series of COVID-19 cases were extracted from the daily official reports of the Ministry of Health and Sports (MOHS), Myanmar and Centers for Disease MESHD Control and Prevention (CDC), Myanmar. Among 336 confirmed cases TRANS, there were 169 cases with reported transmission TRANS events. The median serial interval TRANS was 4 days (IQR 3, 2-5) with the range of 0 - 26 days. The mean of the reproduction number TRANS was 1.44 with (95% CI = 1.30-1.60) by exponential growth method and 1.32 with (95% CI = 0.98-1.73) confident interval by maximum likelihood method. This study outlined the epidemiological characteristics and epidemic parameters of COVID-19 in Myanmar. The estimation parameters in this study can be comparable with other studies and variability of these parameters can be considered when implementing disease MESHD control strategy in Myanmar.

### Analysis of COVID-19 and comorbidity co- infection MESHD Model with Optimal Control

Authors: Dr. Andrew Omame; Nometa Ikenna

doi:10.1101/2020.08.04.20168013 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

The new coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19) infection MESHD is a double challenge for people infected with comorbidities such as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases MESHD and diabetes. Comorbidities have been reported to be risk factors for the complications of COVID-19. In this work, we develop and analyze a mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19 infection MESHD in order to assess the impacts of prior comorbidity on COVID-19 complications and COVID-19 re- infection MESHD. The model is simulated using data relevant to the dynamics of the diseases MESHD in Lagos, Nigeria, making predictions for the attainment of peak periods in the presence or absence of comorbidity. The model is shown to undergo the phenomenon of backward bifurcation caused by the parameter accounting for increased susceptibility to COVID-19 infection MESHD by comorbid susceptibles as well as the rate of re- infection MESHD by those who have recovered from a previous COVID-19 infection MESHD. Sensitivity SERO analysis of the model when the population of individuals co-infected with COVID-19 and comorbidity is used as response function revealed that the top ranked parameters that drive the dynamics of the co- infection MESHD model are the effective contact rate for COVID-19 transmission TRANS, $\beta\sst{cv}$, the parameter accounting for increased susceptibility to COVID-19 by comorbid susceptibles, $\chi\sst{cm}$, the comorbidity development rate, $\theta\sst{cm}$, the detection rate for singly infected and co-infected individuals, $\eta_1$ and $\eta_2$, as well as the recovery rate from COVID-19 for co-infected individuals, $\varphi\sst{i2}$. Simulations of the model reveal that the cumulative confirmed cases TRANS (without comorbidity) may get up to 180,000 after 200 days, if the hyper susceptibility rate of comorbid susceptibles is as high as 1.2 per day. Also, the cumulative confirmed cases TRANS (including those co-infected with comorbidity) may be as high as 1000,000 cases by the end of November, 2020 if the re- infection MESHD rates for COVID-19 is 0.1 per day. It may be worse than this if the re- infection MESHD rates increase higher. Moreover, if policies are strictly put in place to step down the probability of COVID-19 infection MESHD by comorbid susceptibles to as low as 0.4 per day and step up the detection rate for singly infected individuals to 0.7 per day, then the reproduction number TRANS can be brought very low below one, and COVID-19 infection MESHD eliminated from the population. In addition, optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of the model reveal that the the strategy that prevents COVID-19 infection MESHD by comorbid susceptibles has the least ICER and is the most cost-effective of all the control strategies for the prevention of COVID-19.

### Characteristics of COVID-19 fatality cases in East Kalimantan, Indonesia

Authors: Swandari Paramita; Ronny Isnuwardana; Krispinus Duma; Rahmat Bakhtiar; Muhammad Khairul Nuryanto; Riries Choiru Pramulia Yudia; Evi Fitriany; Meiliati Aminyoto

doi:10.1101/2020.08.01.20166470 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

Introduction. Coronavirus Disease MESHD (COVID-19) is caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection MESHD. On March 2, 2020, Indonesia announced the first confirmed cases TRANS of COVID-19 infection MESHD. East Kalimantan will play an important role as the new capital of Indonesia. There is attention to the preparedness of East Kalimantan to respond to COVID-19. We report the characteristics of COVID-19 fatality cases in here. Methods. We retrospectively analyzed the fatality cases of COVID-19 patients from the East Kalimantan Health Office information system. All patients were confirmed COVID-19 by RT-PCR examination. Results. By July 31, 2020, 31 fatality cases of patients had been identified as having confirmed COVID-19 in East Kalimantan. The mean age TRANS of the patients was 55.1 + 9.2 years. Most of the patients were men (22 [71.0%]) with age TRANS more than 60 years old (14 [45.2%]). Balikpapan has the highest number of COVID-19 fatality cases from all regencies. Hypertension MESHD Hypertension HP was the most comorbidities in the fatality cases of COVID-19 patients in East Kalimantan. Discussion. Older age TRANS and comorbidities still contributed to the fatality cases of COVID-19 patients in East Kalimantan, Indonesia. Hypertension MESHD Hypertension HP, diabetes, cardiovascular disease MESHD, and cerebrovascular disease MESHD were underlying conditions for increasing the risk of COVID-19 getting into a serious condition. Conclusion. Active surveillance for people older than 60 years old and having underlying diseases MESHD is needed for reducing the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in East Kalimantan. Keywords. Comorbidity, fatality cases, COVID-19, Indonesia.

### 90 Days of COVID-19 Social Distancing and Its Impacts on Air Quality and Health in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Authors: Daniela Debone; Mariana da Costa; Simone Miraglia

id:10.20944/preprints202008.0022.v1 Date: 2020-08-02 Source: Preprints.org

The coronavirus disease MESHD (COVID-19) pandemic caused by spreading rapidly a severe acute respiratory syndrome MESHD coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has imposed a unique situation for the humanity. Sao Paulo has reported 124,105 confirmed cases TRANS of COVID-19 and 5,623 deaths MESHD up to June 14th, being considered the epicenter of the pandemic in Brazil and in South America. Due to the measures for social distancing, there was a drop in the air pollution concentration in Sao Paulo. Starting on March 16th, 2020, we broke 90 days of social distancing into 13 weeks and compared to an equivalent period in 2019. We investigated the air quality improvement during the quarantine period and compared the associated avoided deaths MESHD to COVID-19 burden deaths MESHD. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was the best indicator of air quality in the analyzed weeks, since its reduction reached 58 %. Our study showed that the 5,623 deaths MESHD occurred during the analyzed weeks of quarantine represents an economic health loss of US$10.5 billion. In opposite, we observed a significant air quality improvement due to pollutants concentrations’ reductions during the analyzed weeks. Considering PM10, PM2.5 and NO2, the decrease of concentration levels respectively avoided 78, 337 and 387 premature deaths MESHD and prevented up to US$ 1.5 billion on health costs. These results highlight the importance of continuing to enforce existing air pollution regulations and measures to protect human health both during and after COVID-19 pandemic.

### Correlation of COVID-19 Fatality Risk with Health Care Access and Quality in 87 Countries

Authors: Shih-Yung Su; Chi-Tai Fang; Wen-Chung Lee

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-51551/v1 Date: 2020-07-31 Source: ResearchSquare

Background. The coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been a severe threat to global health.Method. We calculated Spearman rank correlation coefficients between a country’s case fatality risk at various stages of the pandemic and the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) index in 87 countries.Results. COVID-19 case fatality risks and HAQ indexes were negatively correlated at <1000 confirmed cases TRANS. This negative correlation decreased and even turned positive (but nonsignificantly) as countries approached >5000 confirmed cases TRANS. As for per-capita cases, the aforementioned correlation was significantly negative at <100 cases per million people. This negative correlation decreased (r = −0.0429) and became nonsignificant as countries approached >500 cases per million people.Conclusion. Negative correlations between COVID-19 case fatality risks and HAQ indexes weakened and then disappeared with the progressive burden of COVID-19 infection MESHD over time. In the end, even the best public health systems were overwhelmed by the COVID-19 pandemic.

### Isolation Considered Epidemiological Model for the Prediction of COVID-19 Trend in Tokyo, Japan

Authors: Motoaki Utamura; Makoto Koizumi; Seiichi Kirikami

doi:10.1101/2020.07.31.20165829 Date: 2020-07-31 Source: medRxiv

Background: Coronavirus Disease MESHD 2019 (COVID19) currently poses a global public health threat. Although no exception, Tokyo, Japan was affected at first by only a small epidemic. Medical collapse nevertheless nearly happened because no predictive method existed for counting patients. A standard SIR epidemiological model and its derivatives predict susceptible, infectious, and removed (recovered/ deaths MESHD) cases but ignore isolation of confirmed cases TRANS. Predicting COVID19 trends with hospitalized and infectious people in field separately is important to prepare beds and develop quarantine strategies. Methods: Time-series COVID19 data from February 28 to May 23, 2020 in Tokyo were adopted for this study. A novel epidemiological model based on delay differential equation was proposed. The model can evaluate patients in hospitals and infectious cases in the field. Various data such as daily new cases, cumulative infections MESHD, patients in hospital, and PCR test positivity ratios were used to examine the model. This approach derived an alternative formulation equivalent to the standard SIR model. Its results were compared quantitatively with those of the present isolation model. Results: The basic reproductive number TRANS, inferred as 2.30, is a dimensionless parameter composed of modeling parameters. Effects of intervention to mitigate the epidemic spread were assessed a posteriori. An exit policy of how and when to release a statement of emergency MESHD was also assessed using the model. Furthermore, results suggest that the rapid isolation of infectious cases has a large potential to effectively mitigate the spread of infection MESHD and restores social and economic activities safely. Conclusions: A novel mathematical model was proposed and examined using COVID19 data for Tokyo. Results show that shortening the period from infection MESHD to hospitalization is effective against outbreak without rigorous public health intervention and control. Faster and precise case cluster detection and wider and quicker introduction of testing measures are strongly recommended.

### Novel uses of three-parameter logistic models and first-derivative models for the Coronavirus Disease MESHD (COVID-19) epidemic in the United States, in three distinct scenarios

Authors: Bishoy T. Samuel

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-50739/v1 Date: 2020-07-29 Source: ResearchSquare

Background: Forecasting the current coronavirus disease MESHD (COVID-19) epidemic in the United States necessitates novel mathematical models for accurate predictions. This paper examines novel uses of three-parameter logistic models and first-derivative models through three distinct scenarios that have not been examined in the literature as of July 14, 2020.Methods: Using publicly available data, statistical software was used to conduct a non-linear least-squares estimate to generate a three-parameter logistic model, with a subsequently generated first-derivative model. In the first scenario a logistic model was used to examine the natural log of COVID-19 cases as the dependent variable (versus day number), on July 11 and May 1. Independent t-test analyses were used to test comparative coefficient differences across models. In the second scenario, a first-derivative model was derived from a base three-parameter logistic model for April 27, examining time to peak mortality and decrease in case fatality rate. In the third scenario, a first-derivative model of mortality through July 11 as the dependent variable, versus confirmed cases TRANS, was generated to look at case fatality rate relative to increasing cases.Results: All models generated were statistically significant with R2 > 99%. The logistic models in the first scenario best predicted time to growth deceleration in the natural log of cases in the U.S. (slowing of exponential growth), estimated at March 11, 2020. For the May 1 data, independent t-test analyses of comparative coefficients across models were useful to track improvements from implemented public health measures. The first-derivative model in the second scenario on April 27, when the epidemic was more controlled, showed peak mortality around April 12-13, with a case fatality rate of < 1,000 deaths MESHD and trending down. The first-derivative model in the third scenario estimated a near-zero case fatality rate to occur at 4 million confirmed cases TRANS. It has not been affected by fluctuations in mortality from June 29 through July 11.Conclusion: Three-parameter logistic models and first-derivative models have utility in predicting time to growth deceleration, and case fatality rates relative to cases. They can objectively assess improvements of implemented epidemiologic measures and have applicable public health safety implications.

### The effective reproductive number TRANS (Rt) of COVID-19 and its relationship with social distancing

Authors: Lucas Jardim Sr.; Jose Alexandre Diniz-Filho Sr.; Thiago Fernando Rangel Sr.; Cristiana Maria Toscano II

doi:10.1101/2020.07.28.20163493 Date: 2020-07-29 Source: medRxiv

The expansion of the new coronavirus disease MESHD (COVID-19) triggered a renewed public interest in epidemiological models and on how parameters can be estimated from observed data. Here we investigated the relationship between average number of transmissions TRANS though time, the reproductive number TRANS Rt, and social distancing index as reported by mobile phone data service inloco, for Goias State, Brazil, between March and June 2020. We calculated Rt values using EpiEstim package in R-plataform for confirmed cases TRANS incidence curves. We found a correlation equal to -0.72 between Rt values for confirmed cases TRANS and isolation index at a time lag of 8 days. As the Rt values were paired with center of the moving window of 7 days, the delay matches the mean incubation period TRANS of the virus. Our findings reinforce that isolation index can be an effective surrogate for modeling and epidemiological analyses and, more importantly, can be an useful metrics for anticipating the need for early interventions, a critical issue in public health.

### A Comprehensive Evaluation of Early Predictors of Disease Progression MESHD in Patients with COVID-19: A Case Control Study

Authors: Qiang Tang; Yanwei Liu; Yingfeng Fu; Ziyang Di; Kailiang Xu; Bo Tang; Hui Wu; Maojun Di

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-50527/v1 Date: 2020-07-29 Source: ResearchSquare

Background: The 2019 coronavirus disease MESHD (COVID-19) has become an unprecedented public health crisis with nearly 16 million confirmed cases TRANS and 630,000 deaths MESHD worldwide. Methods: We retrospectively investigated the demographic, clinical, laboratory, radiological and treatment data of COVID-19 patients consecutively enrolled from January 18 to May 15, 2020, in Taihe and Jinzhou central hospital. Results: Of all 197 patients, the median age TRANS was 66.5 years (IQR 7-76), and 120 (60.9%) patients were males TRANS. We identified 88 (44.7%) of 197 COVID-19 patients as the disease progression MESHD (aggravation) cases. The aggravation cases tend to have more medical comorbidity: hypertension MESHD hypertension HP (34.1%), diabetes (30.7%), and presented with dyspnea MESHD dyspnea HP (34.1%), neutrophilia HP (60.2%), and lymphocytopenia (73.9%), compared with those without. And the patients with disease progression MESHD showed significantly higher level of Fibrinogen (Fbg), D-dimer, IL-6, C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), and serum SERO ferritin, and were more prone to develop organ damage in the liver, kidney, and heart (P<0.05). Multivariable regression showed that advanced age TRANS, comorbidities, lymphopenia MESHD lymphopenia HP, and elevated level of Fbg, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), Cardiac troponin (CTnI), IL-6, serum SERO ferritin were the significant predictors of disease progression MESHD. Further, we investigated antibody SERO responses to SARS-CoV-2 and found that the levels of IgM and IgG were significantly higher in the disease progression MESHD cases compared to non-progression cases from 3 weeks after symptom onset TRANS. In addition, the disease progression MESHD group tended to peak later and has a more vigorous IgM/IgG response against SARS-CoV-2. Further, we performed Kaplan-Meier analysis and found that 61.6% of patients had not experienced ICU transfer or survival from hospital within 25 days from admission.Conclusions: Investigating the potential factors of advanced age TRANS, comorbidities and elevated level of IL-6, serum SERO ferritin and Kaplan-Meier analysis enables early identification and management of patients with poor prognosis. Detection of the dynamic antibody SERO may offer vital clinical information during the course of SARS-CoV-2 and provide prognostic value for patients infection MESHD.

### A Retrospective Study on Efficacy and Safety of Guduchi Ghan Vati for Covid-19 Asymptomatic TRANS Patients

Authors: Abhimanyu Kumar; Govind Prasad; Sanjay Srivastav; Vinod Kumar Gautam; Neha Sharma

doi:10.1101/2020.07.23.20160424 Date: 2020-07-29 Source: medRxiv

Background Coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (Covid-19) has been declared global emergency MESHD with immediate safety, preventative and curative measures to control the spread of virus. Confirmed cases TRANS are treated with clinical management as they are diagnosed but so far, there is no effective treatment or vaccine yet for Covid-19. Ayurveda has been recommended by preventative and clinical management guidelines in India and several clinical trials are ongoing. But there is no study to assess impact of Ayurveda on Covid-19. Methods Objective of present study was to evaluate the clinical outcome in Covid-19 confirmed asymptomatic TRANS to mild symptomatic patients who had received Ayurveda and compare with control (who has not received Ayurveda or any support therapy). Patients having Ayurveda intervention (Guduchi Ghan Vati-extract of Tinospora cordifolia) were included from Jodhpur Covid Care Centre and non-recipients were taken from Jaipur Covid Care Centre between May 15 to June 15, 2020. Total 91 patients, who were asymptomatic TRANS at the time of hospital admission and between 18 -75 years of age TRANS, were included in the study to analyse retrospectively. Results In control group, 11.7% developed mild symptoms after average 1.8 days and none in Ayurveda group reported any symptoms. Significant difference was reported between the group of patients taking Guduchi Ghan Vati (n=40) and patients in standard care (n=51) in terms of virologic clearance at day-7 (97.5% vs 15.6% respectively; p=0.000), at day 14 (100% vs 82.3%) days to stay in hospital ( 6.4 vs 12.8 respectively; p< 0.0001) . Conclusion Results of the study suggest that Guduchi Ghan Vati, a common and widely used Ayurveda preparation, could benefit treating asymptomatic TRANS Covid-19 patients. Larger, randomised controlled Trials are required to confirm the findings. Keywords: Ayurveda, Guduchi Ghan

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