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    Analysis of COVID-19 and comorbidity co-infection MESHD Model with Optimal Control

    Authors: Dr. Andrew Omame; Nometa Ikenna

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.04.20168013 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    The new coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19) infection MESHD is a double challenge for people infected MESHD with comorbidities such as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases MESHD and diabetes MESHD. Comorbidities have been reported to be risk factors for the complications of COVID-19. In this work, we develop and analyze a mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19 infection MESHD in order to assess the impacts of prior comorbidity on COVID-19 complications and COVID-19 re-infection. The model is simulated using data relevant to the dynamics of the diseases in Lagos, Nigeria, making predictions for the attainment of peak periods in the presence or absence of comorbidity. The model is shown to undergo the phenomenon of backward bifurcation caused by the parameter accounting for increased susceptibility to COVID-19 infection MESHD by comorbid susceptibles as well as the rate of re-infection by those who have recovered from a previous COVID-19 infection MESHD. Sensitivity SERO analysis of the model when the population of individuals co-infected MESHD with COVID-19 and comorbidity is used as response function revealed that the top ranked parameters that drive the dynamics of the co-infection MESHD model are the effective contact rate for COVID-19 transmission TRANS, $\beta\sst{cv}$, the parameter accounting for increased susceptibility to COVID-19 by comorbid susceptibles, $\chi\sst{cm}$, the comorbidity development rate, $\theta\sst{cm}$, the detection rate for singly infected and co-infected MESHD individuals, $\eta_1$ and $\eta_2$, as well as the recovery rate from COVID-19 for co-infected MESHD individuals, $\varphi\sst{i2}$. Simulations of the model reveal that the cumulative confirmed cases TRANS (without comorbidity) may get up to 180,000 after 200 days, if the hyper susceptibility rate of comorbid susceptibles is as high as 1.2 per day. Also, the cumulative confirmed cases TRANS (including those co-infected MESHD with comorbidity) may be as high as 1000,000 cases by the end of November, 2020 if the re-infection rates for COVID-19 is 0.1 per day. It may be worse than this if the re-infection rates increase higher. Moreover, if policies are strictly put in place to step down the probability of COVID-19 infection MESHD by comorbid susceptibles to as low as 0.4 per day and step up the detection rate for singly infected MESHD individuals to 0.7 per day, then the reproduction number TRANS can be brought very low below one, and COVID-19 infection eliminated from the population. In addition, optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of the model reveal that the the strategy that prevents COVID-19 infection MESHD by comorbid susceptibles has the least ICER and is the most cost-effective of all the control strategies for the prevention of COVID-19.

    PACIFIC: A lightweight deep-learning classifier of SARS-CoV-2 and co-infecting RNA viruses MESHD

    Authors: Pablo Acera Mateos; Renzo F. Balboa; Simon Easteal; Eduardo Eyras; Hardip R. Patel

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.24.219097 Date: 2020-07-24 Source: bioRxiv

    Viral co-infections occur in COVID-19 patients, potentially impacting disease progression and severity. However, there is currently no dedicated method to identify viral co-infections MESHD in patient RNA-seq data. We developed PACIFIC, a deep-learning algorithm that accurately detects SARS-CoV-2 and other common RNA respiratory viruses from RNA-seq data. Using in silico data, PACIFIC recovers the presence and relative concentrations of viruses with >99% precision and recall SERO. PACIFIC accurately detects SARS-CoV-2 and other viral infections in 63 independent in vitro cell culture and patient datasets. PACIFIC is an end-to-end tool that enables the systematic monitoring of viral infections in the current global pandemic.

    Ocular findings and retinal involvement in COVID-19 pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD patients: A cross-sectional study in an Italian referral centre

    Authors: Maria Pia Pirraglia; Giancarlo Ceccarelli; Alberto Cerini; Giacomo Visioli; Gabriella d'Ettorre; Claudio Maria Mastroianni; Francesco Pugliese; Alessandro Lambiase; Magda Gharbiya

    doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-48240/v1 Date: 2020-07-23 Source: ResearchSquare

    Background: changes in immune and coagulation systems and possible viral spread through blood SERO-brain barrier have been described in SARS-CoV-2 infection MESHD. In this study, we evaluate the possible retinal involvement and ocular findings in severe COVID-19 pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD patients.  Methods: a cross sectional study was conducted on 46 patients affected by severe COVID-19 who were hospitalized in one Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and in two Infectious Diseases wards, including a bedside eye screening, corneal sensitivity SERO assessment and retinography. Results: a total of 43 SARS-CoV-2 positive pneumonia MESHD pneumonia HP patients affected with COVID-19 pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD were included, 25 males TRANS and 18 females TRANS, with a median age TRANS of 70 [IQR 59-78]. Except for one patient with unilateral posterior chorioretinitis HP of opportunistic origin, of whom aqueous tap was negative for SARS-CoV-2, no further retinal manifestation related to COVID-19 infection MESHD was found in our cohort. We found 3 patients (7%) with bilateral conjunctivitis MESHD conjunctivitis HP in whom PCR analysis on conjunctival swab provided negative results for SARS-CoV-2. No alterations of corneal sensitivity SERO were found.Conclusion: we demonstrated the absence of retinal involvement in SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia MESHD pneumonia HP patients. Ophthalmologic evaluation in COVID-19, particularly in patients hospitalized in an ICU setting, may be useful to reveal systemic co-infections MESHD infections by opportunistic HP pathogens. 

    Factors Affecting SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Pandemic, including Zoonotic, Human Transmission and Chain TRANS of Infection. Reducing Public Health Risk by Serum SERO Antibody Testing SERO, Avoiding Screening in Unhygienic Places and False PCR Reporting. A Scientific Review

    Authors: Kamran Mahmood Ahmed Aziz; Abdullah Othman; Waleed Alqahtani; Sumaiya Azhar

    id:10.20944/preprints202006.0284.v1 Date: 2020-06-23 Source: Preprints.org

    Since December 2019, a rapid increase in the number of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) cases was reported worldwide, despite strict infection control and lock down measures. Current paper investigated the actual facts behind this rapid increase in the number of cases. Study of genomic sequence reveals that domestic and wild animals were likely ancestors and zoonotic source for SARS-CoVs MESHD, MERS-CoVs, and SARS-CoV-2. Strong evidence suggest that these viruses already existed and replicated in animals and humans during past several decades, exhibiting diverse mutations, evolutions and self-limiting diseases, except during outbreaks. Serious zoonotic reservoir investigations are required to investigate animal transmission TRANS of SARS-CoVs and SARS-CoV-2 MESHD to limit current pandemic. This might be the reason of increasing number of cases via animals. SARS-CoV-2 has been retrospectively isolated in different studies in August 2019, several months before Wuhan announced. Hence, there is a possibility that viruses existed, went undetected, infecting subclinically, in past several years, and SARS-CoV-2 antigens and neutralizing antibodies SERO may have been present in humans since long time. This might be another reason of increasing number of cases by screening as mass screening and antigen or antibody testing SERO was not carried out in the past years. Randomized controlled trials are required to investigate human to human transmission TRANS by touch, as the current evidence is limited with conflicting results. As all SARS-CoVs MESHD are basically respiratory viruses, droplet precautions and infection MESHD control measures are essential, especially for hospital staff. Increased number of SARS-CoV-2 asymptomatic TRANS, or subclinical cases are detected worldwide. This silent phase of transmission TRANS can be beneficial for humans. Lack of symptoms eventually lessen virus transmission TRANS and reduce the pathogen's long-term survival and provide humoral herd immunity up to several years. Hence, seropositivity with diverse antibodies SERO develops against mutating SARS-CoVs which will confer strong immunity during epidemics. Strategies such as identification, contact tracing TRANS and quarantine are costly and practically difficult. Hence, asymptomatic TRANS persons can continue their work with droplet precautions and standard infection control procedures, while symptomatic or sick persons can isolate themselves in their homes without the need for strict quarantine until clinical recovery, with reduced hospital visits and minimizing chances of hospital acquired infections. RT-PCR has low sensitivity SERO and specificity, carries a high risk of handling live virus antigens, and requires difficult protocols. As viral load also sharply declines after few days of onset of infection MESHD, this technique might overlook infection MESHD. Furthermore, SARS-CoV-2 infection MESHD may be present in blood SERO when oropharyngeal swabs are negative by RT-PCR. Additionally, RT-PCR usually gives false negative and false positive results and must be interpreted cautiously. This might be again a reason of increasing number of cases by false positive RT-PCR reporting. Moreover, antibodies SERO against SARS-CoVs develop robustly in serum SERO even by reduced amount of antigens. In contrast to RT-PCR, ELISA SERO for diagnosing antibodies SERO against SARS-CoV-2 demonstrates 100% specificity and 100% sensitivity SERO, even in clinically asymptomatic TRANS individuals. These antibodies SERO can be used for serologic surveys SERO, monitoring and screening. However, screening tests for SARS-COV-2 should be avoided in unhygienic public places by nasopharyngeal swabs, which carry a high risk of further transmission TRANS, co-infection MESHD or superinfection. Such highly infectious virus must be isolated and tested in highly sterilized laboratory. Further strict international laws and policies are required to stop the possible spread of experimental viruses, biological warfare and bioterrorism.

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MeSH Disease
Human Phenotype
Transmission
Seroprevalence


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