Corpus overview


Overview

MeSH Disease

Human Phenotype

Fever (26)

Pneumonia (19)

Cough (16)

Fatigue (6)

Headache (3)


Transmission

Seroprevalence
    displaying 1 - 10 records in total 166
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    Modeling latent infection MESHD transmissions TRANS through biosocial stochastic dynamics

    Authors: Bosiljka Tadic; Roderick Melnik

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.30.20164491 Date: 2020-08-01 Source: medRxiv

    The events of the recent SARS-CoV-02 epidemics have shown the importance of social factors, especially given the large number of asymptomatic TRANS cases that effectively spread the virus, which can cause a medical emergency MESHD to very susceptible individuals. Besides, the SARS-CoV-02 virus survives for several hours on different surfaces, where a new host can contract it with a delay. These passive modes of infection MESHD transmission TRANS remain an unexplored area for traditional mean-field epidemic models. Here, we design an agent-based model for simulations of infection MESHD transmission TRANS in an open system driven by the dynamics of social activity; the model takes into account the personal characteristics of individuals, as well as the survival time of the virus and its potential mutations. A growing bipartite graph embodies this biosocial process, consisting of active carriers TRANS (host) nodes that produce viral nodes during their infectious period TRANS. With its directed edges passing through viral nodes between two successive hosts, this graph contains complete information about the routes leading to each infected individual. We determine temporal fluctuations of the number of exposed and the number of infected individuals, the number of active carriers TRANS and active viruses at hourly resolution. The simulated processes underpin the latent infection MESHD transmissions TRANS, contributing significantly to the spread of the virus within a large time window. More precisely, being brought by social dynamics and exposed to the currently existing infection MESHD, an individual passes through the infectious state until eventually spontaneously recovers or otherwise is moves to a controlled hospital environment. Our results reveal complex feedback mechanisms that shape the dependence of the infection MESHD curve on the intensity of social dynamics and other sociobiological factors. In particular, the results show how the lockdown effectively reduces the spread of infection MESHD and how it increases again after the lockdown is removed. Furthermore, a reduced level of social activity but prolonged exposure of susceptible individuals have adverse effects. On the other hand, virus mutations that can gradually reduce the transmission TRANS rate by hopping to each new host along the infection MESHD path can significantly reduce the extent of the infection MESHD, but can not stop the spreading without additional social strategies. Our stochastic processes, based on graphs at the interface of biology and social dynamics, provide a new mathematical framework for simulations of various epidemic control strategies with high temporal resolution and virus traceability.

    Household transmission TRANS of SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review and meta-analysis of secondary attack rate TRANS

    Authors: Zachary J. Madewell; Yang Yang; Ira M. Longini Jr.; M. Elizabeth Halloran; Natalie E. Dean

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.29.20164590 Date: 2020-08-01 Source: medRxiv

    Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome MESHD coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is spread by direct, indirect, or close contact TRANS with infected people via infected respiratory droplets or saliva. Crowded indoor environments with sustained close contact TRANS and conversations are a particularly high-risk setting. Methods: We performed a meta-analysis through July 29, 2020 of SARS-CoV-2 household secondary attack rate TRANS ( SAR TRANS), disaggregating by several covariates (contact type, symptom status, adult TRANS/ child TRANS contacts, contact sex, relationship to index case, index case sex, number of contacts in household TRANS, coronavirus). Findings: We identified 40 relevant published studies that report household secondary transmission TRANS. The estimated overall household SAR TRANS was 18.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 15.4%-22.2%), which is higher than previously observed SARs for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. We observed that household SARs were significantly higher from symptomatic index cases than asymptomatic TRANS index cases, to adult TRANS contacts than children TRANS contacts, to spouses than other family contacts, and in households TRANS with one contact than households TRANS with three or more contacts. Interpretation: To prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2, people are being asked to stay at home worldwide. With suspected or confirmed infections TRANS infections MESHD referred to isolate at home, household transmission TRANS will continue to be a significant source of transmission TRANS.

    A Retrospective Study on Efficacy and Safety of Guduchi Ghan Vati for Covid-19 Asymptomatic TRANS Patients

    Authors: Abhimanyu Kumar; Govind Prasad; Sanjay Srivastav; Vinod Kumar Gautam; Neha Sharma

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.23.20160424 Date: 2020-07-29 Source: medRxiv

    Background Coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (Covid-19) has been declared global emergency MESHD with immediate safety, preventative and curative measures to control the spread of virus. Confirmed cases TRANS are treated with clinical management as they are diagnosed but so far, there is no effective treatment or vaccine yet for Covid-19. Ayurveda has been recommended by preventative and clinical management guidelines in India and several clinical trials are ongoing. But there is no study to assess impact of Ayurveda on Covid-19. Methods Objective of present study was to evaluate the clinical outcome in Covid-19 confirmed asymptomatic TRANS to mild symptomatic patients who had received Ayurveda and compare with control (who has not received Ayurveda or any support therapy). Patients having Ayurveda intervention (Guduchi Ghan Vati-extract of Tinospora cordifolia) were included from Jodhpur Covid Care Centre and non-recipients were taken from Jaipur Covid Care Centre between May 15 to June 15, 2020. Total 91 patients, who were asymptomatic TRANS at the time of hospital admission and between 18 -75 years of age TRANS, were included in the study to analyse retrospectively. Results In control group, 11.7% developed mild symptoms after average 1.8 days and none in Ayurveda group reported any symptoms. Significant difference was reported between the group of patients taking Guduchi Ghan Vati (n=40) and patients in standard care (n=51) in terms of virologic clearance at day-7 (97.5% vs 15.6% respectively; p=0.000), at day 14 (100% vs 82.3%) days to stay in hospital ( 6.4 vs 12.8 respectively; p< 0.0001) . Conclusion Results of the study suggest that Guduchi Ghan Vati, a common and widely used Ayurveda preparation, could benefit treating asymptomatic TRANS Covid-19 patients. Larger, randomised controlled Trials are required to confirm the findings. Keywords: Ayurveda, Guduchi Ghan

    Seroprevalence SERO of SARS-CoV-2 IgG Antibodies SERO in Utsunomiya City, Greater Tokyo, after first pandemic in 2020 (U-CORONA): a household- and population-based study

    Authors: Nobutoshi Nawa; Jin Kuramochi; Shiro Sonoda; Yui Yamaoka; Yoko Nukui; Yasunari Miyazaki; Takeo Fujiwara

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.20.20155945 Date: 2020-07-26 Source: medRxiv

    Background: The number of confirmed cases TRANS of severe acute respiratory syndrome MESHD coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections MESHD in Japan are substantially lower in comparison to the US and UK, potentially due to the under-implementation of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests. Studies reported that more than half of the SARS-CoV-2 infections are asymptomatic MESHD asymptomatic TRANS, confirming the importance for conducting seroepidemiological studies. Although the seroepidemiological studies in Japan observed a reported prevalence SERO of 0.10% in Tokyo, 0.17% in Osaka, and 0.03% in Miyagi, sampling bias was not considered. The study objective was to assess the seroprevalence SERO of SARS-CoV-2 in a random sample of households in Utsunomiya City in Tochigi Prefecture, Greater Tokyo, Japan. Methods: We launched the Utsunomiya COVID-19 seROprevalence SERO Neighborhood Association (U-CORONA) Study to assess the seroprevalence SERO of COVID-19 in Utsunomiya City. The survey was conducted between 14 June 2020 and 5 July 2020, in between the first and second wave of the pandemic. Invitations enclosed with a questionnaire were sent to 2,290 people in 1,000 households randomly selected from Utsunomiya basic resident registry. Written informed consent was obtained from all participants. The level of IgG antibodies SERO to SARS-CoV-2 was assessed by chemiluminescence immunoassay SERO analysis. Results: Among 2,290 candidates, 753 returned the questionnaire and 742 received IgG tests (32.4 % participation rate). Of the 742 participants, 86.8% were 18 years or older, 52.6% were women, 71.1% were residing within 10 km from the test clinic, and 89.2% were living with another person. The age TRANS and sex distribution, distance to clinic and police district were similar with those of non-participants, while the proportion of single-person households was higher among non-participants than participants (16.2% vs. 10.8%). We confirmed three positive cases through quantitative antibody testing SERO. No positive cases were found among the people who live in the same household as someone with positive. All cases were afebrile. The estimated unweighted and weighted prevalence SERO of SARS-CoV-2 infection MESHD were 0.40% (95% confidence interval: 0.08-1.18%) and 1.23% (95% confidence interval: 0.17-2.28%), respectively. Conclusion: This study suggests the importance of detecting all cases using PCR or antigen testing, not only at a hospital, but also in areas where people assemble. Further prospective studies using this cohort are needed to monitor SARS-CoV-2 antibody SERO levels.

    Daily Forecasting of New Cases for Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease MESHD 2019 with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification

    Authors: Yen Ting Lin; Jacob Neumann; Ely F Miller; Richard G Posner; Abhishek Mallela; Cosmin Stafa; Jaideep Ray; Gautam Thakur; Supriya Chinthavali; William S Hlavacek

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.20.20151506 Date: 2020-07-26 Source: medRxiv

    To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policy-making, we formulated two types of mathematical models for COVID-19 transmission TRANS within a regional population. One is a fitting function that can be calibrated to reproduce an epidemic curve with two timescales (e.g., fast growth and slow decay). The other is a compartmental model that accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a non-exponentially distributed incubation period TRANS, asymptomatic TRANS individuals, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease MESHD. Using Bayesian inference, we have been calibrating our models daily for consistency with new reports of confirmed cases TRANS from the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States and quantifying uncertainty in parameter estimates and predictions of future case reports. This online learning approach allows for early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting. We infer new significant upward trends for five of the metropolitan areas starting between 19-April-2020 and 12-June-2020.

    The Asymptomatic Infection MESHD Asymptomatic TRANS of COVID-19 Risen in Imported Population in Shenzhen, China

    Authors: Mu-Xin Chen; Lin Ai; Da-Na Huang; Tie-Jian Feng; Jia-Xu Chen; Shu-Jiang Mei; Ya-Lan Huang; Ying Sun; Jun Meng; Gai-Ge Yang; Ling-Hong Xiong; Xiao-Min Zhang; Bo Peng; Shi-Song Fang; Shun-Xian Zhang; Ren-Li Zhang

    doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-48824/v1 Date: 2020-07-25 Source: ResearchSquare

    Background As of July 24 2020, the global reported number of COVID-19 cases was > 15.4 millions, with over 640,000 deaths MESHD. The present study aimed to carry out an epidemiological analysis of confirmed cases TRANS and asymptomatic infections MESHD asymptomatic TRANS in Shenzhen City to provide scientific reference for the prevention and control of COVID-19.Methods The epidemiological information of the 462 confirmed cases TRANS and 45 asymptomatic infections MESHD asymptomatic TRANS from January 19th to June 30th was collected in Shenzhen City, Southern China, and a descriptive analysis was performed.Results A total of 462 confirmed COVID-19 cases from January 19 to April 30, 2020 were reported in Shenzhen City, including 423 domestic cases (91.56%) and 39 imported cases (8.44%) who came back from other countries. Among domestic cases, the majority were cases imported from Hubei Province (n = 312, 67.53%), followed by local ones (n = 69, 14.94%). During the same period, a total of 45 asymptomatic infections MESHD asymptomatic TRANS were reported in Shenzhen City, including 31 local ones (68.89%) and 14 imported from abroad (31.11%). The proportion of asymptomatic infections MESHD asymptomatic TRANS in Shenzhen City was increasing over time (Z = 13.1888, P < 0.0001). The total number of local asymptomatic infections MESHD asymptomatic TRANS in Shenzhen City exceeded as the same pattern as that in other provinces (χ2 = 118.830, P < 0.0001). The proportion of asymptomatic infections MESHD asymptomatic TRANS among cases imported from abroad was higher than that of the same in domestic cases (χ2 = 22.5121, P < 0.0001, OR = 4.8983, 95%: 2.4052, 9.9756). No statistical significance was noted in the proportions of asymptomatic infections MESHD asymptomatic TRANS among imported cases from different countries (χ2 = 7.7202, P = 0.6561).Conclusions The majority of COVID-19 cases in Shenzhen City were imported cases who came back from Hubei Province in the early stage (before 1st March, 2020) and from abroad in the later stage (after 1st April, 2020). Scientific and effective prevention and control measures have resulted in only a few local infections MESHD in Shenzhen City. Asymptomatic infections MESHD Asymptomatic TRANS accounted for an increasing proportion among cases imported from abroad, indicating that the prevention measures carried out in Shenzhen City did avoid the import of infected cases. Improving the detection capability to identify asymptomatic infections MESHD asymptomatic TRANS as early as possible will be of significance for the control outbreak of COVID-19.

    A Partially Observable MDP Approach for Sequential Testing for Infectious Diseases MESHD such as COVID-19

    Authors: Rahul Singh; Fang Liu; Ness B. Shroff

    id:2007.13023v1 Date: 2020-07-25 Source: arXiv

    The outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is unfolding as a major international crisis whose influence extends to every aspect of our daily lives. Effective testing allows infected individuals to be quarantined, thus reducing the spread of COVID-19, saving countless lives, and helping to restart the economy safely and securely. Developing a good testing strategy can be greatly aided by contact tracing TRANS that provides health care providers information about the whereabouts of infected patients in order to determine whom to test. Countries that have been more successful in corralling the virus typically use a ``test, treat, trace TRANS, test'' strategy that begins with testing individuals with symptoms, traces contacts TRANS of positively tested individuals via a combinations of patient memory, apps, WiFi, GPS, etc., followed by testing their contacts, and repeating this procedure. The problem is that such strategies are myopic and do not efficiently use the testing resources. This is especially the case with COVID-19, where symptoms may show up several days after the infection MESHD (or not at all, there is evidence to suggest that many COVID-19 carriers TRANS are asymptotic TRANS, but may spread the virus). Such greedy strategies, miss out population areas where the virus may be dormant and flare up in the future. In this paper, we show that the testing problem can be cast as a sequential learning-based resource allocation problem with constraints, where the input to the problem is provided by a time-varying social contact graph obtained through various contact tracing TRANS tools. We then develop efficient learning strategies that minimize the number of infected individuals. These strategies are based on policy iteration and look-ahead rules. We investigate fundamental performance SERO bounds, and ensure that our solution is robust to errors in the input graph as well as in the tests themselves.

    Weak association of coinfection MESHD by SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses with severe cases and death MESHD

    Authors: Larissa Fernandes-Matano; Irma Eloisa Monroy-Muñoz; Luis Antonio Uribe-Noguez; María de los Angeles Hernández-Cueto; Brenda Sarquiz-Martínez; Héctor Daniel Pardav&eacute-Alejandre; Andrea Santos Coy-Arechavaleta; Julio Elias Alvarado-Yaah; Teresita Rojas-Mendoza; Clara Esperanza Santacruz-Tinoco; Concepción Grajales-Muñiz; Víctor Hugo Borja-Aburto; José Esteban Muñoz-Medina

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.22.20159400 Date: 2020-07-25 Source: medRxiv

    SARS-CoV-2 is a novel coronavirus described for the first time in China in December 2019. This virus can cause a disease MESHD that ranges in spectrum from asymptomatic TRANS to severe respiratory disease MESHD with multiorgan failure, and the most severe cases are associated with some comorbidities and patient age TRANS. However, there are patients who do not have those risk factors who still develop serious disease MESHD. In this study, we identified the presence of other respiratory viruses in positive cases of COVID-19 in Mexico to determine if any coinfections MESHD were correlated with more severe manifestations of COVID-19. We analysed 103 confirmed cases TRANS of COVID-19 using RT-qPCR for the detection of 16 other respiratory viruses.Of the cases analysed, 14 (13.6%) were cases of coinfection MESHD, and 92% of them never required hospitalization, even when comorbidities and advanced age TRANS were involved. There were not significant differences between the presence of comorbidities and the mean ages of the groups TRANS. These results suggest that coinfection MESHD is not related to more severe COVID-19 and that, depending on the virus involved, it could even lead to a better prognosis. We believe that our findings may lay the groundwork for new studies aimed at determining the biological mechanism by which this phenomenon occurs and for proposing corresponding strategies to limit the progression to severe cases of COVID-19.

    SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey in Health Care Workers of the Veneto Region

    Authors: Mario Plebani; Andrea Padoan; Ugo Fedeli; Elena Schievano; Elena Vecchiato; Giuseppe Lippi; Giuliana Lo Cascio; Stefano Porru; Giorgio Palu

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.23.20160457 Date: 2020-07-24 Source: medRxiv

    Background: The ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease MESHD (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome MESHD coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) poses formidable challenges to all health care systems. Serological assays SERO may improve disease MESHD management when appropriately used, for better understanding the antibody SERO responses mounted upon SARS-CoV-2 infection MESHD and for assessing its real prevalence SERO. Although testing the whole population is impratical, well-designed serosurveys in selected subpopulations in specific risk groups may provide valuable information. Aim: we evaluated the prevalence SERO of SARS-CoV-2 infection MESHD in health care workers who underwent molecular testing with reverse transcription real-time polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) in the main hospitals of the Veneto Region by measuring specific antibodies SERO (Abs). Methods: both IgM and IgG antibodies SERO against SARS-Cov-2 S-antigen and N-protein were measured using a validated chemiluminescent analytical system (CLIA) called Maglumi 2000 Plus (New Industries Biomedical EngineeringCo., Ltd [Snibe], Shenzhen, China) Results: A total of 8285 health care workers were tested. SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies SERO (IgM, IgG or both) were detectable in 378 cases (4.6%, 95% CI 4.1-5.0%). Seroconversion was observed in 4.4% women and 5% men, but the difference was not significant. Although detectable antibodies SERO were found in all severe COVID-19 patients (100%), lower seropositivity was found in mild disease MESHD (83%) and the lowest prevalence SERO (58%) was observed in asymptomatic TRANS subjects. Conclusion: Seroprevalence SERO surveys are of utmost importance for understanding the rate of population that has already developed antibodies SERO against SARS-CoV-2. The present study has the statistical power to define precisely the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in a cohort of health workers in our region, with its prevalence SERO (4.6%) reflecting a relatively low circulation. Symptomatic individuals or those hospitalized for medical care were 100% antibody SERO positive, whilst Abs were only detectable in 58% of asymptomatic TRANS carriers TRANS.

    Daily Forecasting of New Cases for Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease MESHD 2019 with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification

    Authors: Yen Ting Lin; Jacob Neumann; Ely Miller; Richard G. Posner; Abhishek Mallela; Cosmin Safta; Jaideep Ray; Gautam Thakur; Supriya Chinthavali; William S. Hlavacek

    id:2007.12523v1 Date: 2020-07-20 Source: arXiv

    To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policy-making, we formulated two types of mathematical models for COVID-19 transmission TRANS within a regional population. One is a fitting function that can be calibrated to reproduce an epidemic curve with two timescales (e.g., fast growth and slow decay). The other is a compartmental model that accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a non-exponentially distributed incubation period TRANS, asymptomatic TRANS individuals, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease MESHD. Using Bayesian inference, we have been calibrating our models daily for consistency with new reports of confirmed cases TRANS from the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States and quantifying uncertainty in parameter estimates and predictions of future case reports. This online learning approach allows for early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting. We infer new significant upward trends for five of the metropolitan areas starting between 19-April-2020 and 12-June-2020.

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MeSH Disease
Human Phenotype
Transmission
Seroprevalence


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