### Overview

MeSH Disease

Confusion (2)

Infections (1)

Death (1)

Human Phenotype

Confusion (2)

Transmission

Seroprevalence

There are no seroprevalence terms in the subcorpus

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### What the reproductive number TRANS R_0 TRANS can and cannot tell us about COVID-19 dynamics

Authors: Clara L. Shaw; David A. Kennedy

id:2006.14676v1 Date: 2020-06-25 Source: arXiv

The reproductive number TRANS R_0 TRANS (and its value after initial disease emergence R) has long been used to predict the likelihood of pathogen invasion, to gauge the potential severity of an epidemic, and to set policy around interventions. However, often ignored complexities have generated confusion HP confusion MESHD around use of the metric. This is particularly apparent with the emergent pandemic virus SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19. We address some of these misconceptions, namely, how R changes over time, varies over space, and relates to epidemic size by referencing the mathematical definition of R and examples from the current pandemic. We hope that a better appreciation of the uses, nuances, and limitations of R facilitates a better understanding of epidemic spread, epidemic severity, and the effects of interventions in the context of SARS-CoV-2.

### A pandemic at the Tunisian scale. Mathematical modelling of reported and unreported COVID-19 infected cases

Authors: Ines Abdeljaoued-Tej

doi:10.1101/2020.05.21.20108621 Date: 2020-05-23 Source: medRxiv

Starting from the city of Wuhan in China in late December 2019, the pandemic quickly spread to the rest of the world along the main intercontinental air routes. At the time of writing this article, there are officially about five million infections MESHD and more than 300 000 deaths. Statistics vary widely from country to country, revealing significant differences in anticipation and management of the crisis. We propose to examine the COVID-19 epidemic in Tunisia through mathematical models, which aim to determine the actual number of infected cases and to predict the course of the epidemic. As of May 11, 2020, there are officially 1032 COVID-19 infected cases in Tunisia. 45 people have died. Using a mathematical model based on the number of reported infected MESHD cases, the number of deaths, and the effect of the 18-day delay between infection MESHD and death MESHD, this study estimates the actual number of COVID-19 cases in Tunisia as 2555 cases. This paper analyses the evolution of the epidemic in Tunisia using population dynamics with an SEIR model combining susceptible cases S(t), asymptomatic TRANS infected cases A(t), reported infected MESHD cases V (t), and unreported infected cases U(t). This work measures the basic reproduction number TRANS R0 TRANS, which is the average number of people infected MESHD by a COVID-19 infected person. The model predicts an R0 TRANS = 2.73. Strict containment measures have led to a significant reduction in the reproduction rate. Contact tracing TRANS and respect for isolation have an impact: at the current time, we compute that Tunisia has an Rt = 0.42 (95% CI 0.14-0.70). These values depend on physical separation and can vary over time depending on the management of suspicious cases. Their objective estimation and the study of their evolution are however necessary to understand the pandemic and to reduce their unintended damage (due to an absence of symptoms, or the confusion HP confusion MESHD of certain symptoms with less contagious diseases, or unavailable or unreliable tests).

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 All None MeSH Disease Human Phenotype Transmission Seroprevalence

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