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MeSH Disease

Human Phenotype

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Transmission

Seroprevalence
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    Accessing the Syndemic of COVID-19 and Malaria MESHD Intervention in Africa

    Authors: Benyun Shi; Jinxin Zheng; Shang Xia; Shan Lin; Xinyi Wang; Yang Liu; Xiao-Nong Zhou; Jiming Liu

    doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-52323/v1 Date: 2020-08-01 Source: ResearchSquare

    Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused substantial disruptions to health services in the low and middle-income countries with a high burden of other diseases, such as malaria MESHD in sub-Saharan Africa. As the COVID-19 pandemic spread to Africa, there is an urgent need to assess the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on malaria MESHD transmission TRANS potential in malaria-endemic MESHD countries in Africa.Methods: We present a data-driven method to quantify the extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), could lead to the change of malaria MESHD transmission TRANS potential in 2020. First, we adopt a particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate epidemiological parameters in each country by fitting the time series of the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases. Then, we simulate the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 under two groups of NPIs: (i) contact restriction and social distancing, and (ii) early identification and isolation of cases. Based on the simulated epidemic curves, we quantify the impact of COVID-19 epidemic and NPIs on the distribution of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs). Finally, by treating the total number of ITNs available in each country in 2020, we evaluate the negative effects of COVID-19 pandemic on malaria MESHD transmission TRANS potential based on the notion of vectorial capacity.Results: We conduct case studies in four malaria MESHD-endemic countries, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Zambia, in Africa. The epidemiological parameters (i.e., the basic reproduction number TRANS R0 TRANS and the duration of infection DI ) of COVID-19 in each country are estimated as follows: Ethiopia ( R0 TRANS = 1:57, DI = 5:32), Nigeria ( R0 TRANS = 2:18, DI = 6:58), Tanzania ( R0 TRANS = 2:47, DI = 6:01), and Zambia ( R0 TRANS = 2:12, DI = 6:96). Based on the estimated epidemiological parameters, the epidemic curves simulated under various NPIs indicated that the earlier the interventions are implemented, the better the epidemic is controlled. Moreover, the effect of combined NPIs is better than contact restriction and social distancing only. By treating the total number of ITNs available in each country in 2020 as a baseline, our results show that even with stringent NPIs, malaria MESHD transmission TRANS potential will remain higher than expected in the second half of 2020.Conclusions: By quantifying the impact of various NPI response to the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria MESHD transmission TRANS potential, this study provides a way to jointly address the syndemic between COVID-19 and malaria MESHD in malaria MESHD-endemic countries in Africa. The results suggest that the early intervention of COVID-19 can effectively reduce the scale of the epidemic and mitigate its impact on malaria MESHD transmission TRANS potential.

    Diagnostics and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Western Africa: An observational laboratory-based study from Benin

    Authors: Anges Yadouleton; Anna-Lena Sander; Andres Moreira-Soto; Carine Tchibozo; Gildas Hounkanrin; Yvette Badou; Carlo Fischer; Nina Krause; Petas Akogbeto; Edmilson F. de Oliveira Filho; Anges Dossou; Sebastian Bruenink; Melchior AIssi; Mamoudou Harouna Djingarey; Benjamin Hounkpatin; Michael Nagel; Jan felix Drexler

    doi:10.1101/2020.06.29.20140749 Date: 2020-07-08 Source: medRxiv

    Information on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 MESHD (SARS-CoV-2) spread in Africa is limited by fragile 2 surveillance systems and insufficient diagnostic capacity. 3 We assessed the coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19)-related diagnostic workload in Benin, Western Africa, 4 characterized SARS-CoV-2 genomes from 12 acute cases of COVID-19, used those together with public data to 5 estimate SARS-CoV-2 transmission TRANS dynamics in a Bayesian framework, validated a widely used diagnostic dual target 6 RT-PCR kit donated to African countries, and conducted serological analyses in 68 sera from confirmed COVID-19 7 cases and from febrile patients sampled before the predicted SARS-CoV-2 introduction. 8 We found a 15-fold increase in the monthly laboratory workload due to COVID-19. Genomic surveillance showed 9 introductions of three distinct SARS-CoV-2 lineages. SARS-CoV-2 genome-based analyses yielded an R0 TRANS estimate of 10 4.4 (95% confidence interval: 2.0-7.7), suggesting intense spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Africa. RT-PCR-based tests 11 were highly sensitive but showed variation of internal controls and between diagnostic targets. Commercially available 12 SARS-CoV-2 ELISAs SERO showed up to 25% false-positive results depending on antigen and antibody SERO types, likely due 13 to unspecific antibody SERO responses elicited by acute malaria MESHD according to lack of SARS-CoV-2-specific neutralizing 14 antibody SERO responses and relatively higher parasitemia MESHD in those sera. 15 We confirm an overload of the diagnostic capacity in Benin and provide baseline information on the usability of 16 genome-based surveillance in resource-limited settings. Sero-epidemiological studies SERO Sero-epidemiological studies SERO needed to assess SARS-CoV-2 17 spread may be put at stake by low specificity of tests in tropical settings globally. The increasing diagnostic challenges 18 demand continuous support of national and supranational African stakeholders.

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MeSH Disease
Human Phenotype
Transmission
Seroprevalence


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