Corpus overview


MeSH Disease

Human Phenotype

Falls (10)

Pneumonia (6)

Hypertension (1)

Fever (1)


    displaying 121 - 130 records in total 149
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    A SIDARTHE Model of COVID-19 Epidemic in Italy

    Authors: Giulia Giordano; Franco Blanchini; Raffaele Bruno; Patrizio Colaneri; Alessandro Di Filippo; Angela Di Matteo; Marta Colaneri; the COVID19 IRCCS San Matteo Pavia Task Force

    id:2003.09861v1 Date: 2020-03-22 Source: arXiv

    In late December 2019, a novel strand of Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) causing a severe, potentially fatal respiratory syndrome MESHD (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and is causing outbreaks in multiple world countries, soon becoming a pandemic. Italy has now become the most hit country outside of Asia: on March 16, 2020, the Italian Civil Protection documented a total of 27980 confirmed cases TRANS and 2158 deaths of people tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. In the context of an emerging infectious disease outbreak, it is of paramount importance to predict the trend of the epidemic in order to plan an effective control strategy and to determine its impact. This paper proposes a new epidemic model that discriminates between infected individuals depending on whether they have been diagnosed and on the severity of their symptoms. The distinction between diagnosed and non-diagnosed is important because non-diagnosed individuals are more likely to spread the infection MESHD than diagnosed ones, since the latter are typically isolated, and can explain misperceptions of the case fatality rate and of the seriousness of the epidemic phenomenon. Being able to predict the amount of patients that will develop life-threatening symptoms is important since the disease frequently requires hospitalisation (and even Intensive Care Unit admission) and challenges the healthcare system capacity. We show how the basic reproduction number TRANS can be redefined in the new framework, thus capturing the potential for epidemic containment. Simulation results are compared with real data on the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy, to show the validity of the model and compare different possible predicted scenarios depending on the adopted countermeasures.

    The early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy

    Authors: D Cereda; M Tirani; F Rovida; V Demicheli; M Ajelli; P Poletti; F Trentini; G Guzzetta; V Marziano; A Barone; M Magoni; S Deandrea; G Diurno; M Lombardo; M Faccini; A Pan; R Bruno; E Pariani; G Grasselli; A Piatti; M Gramegna; F Baldanti; A Melegaro; S Merler

    id:2003.09320v1 Date: 2020-03-20 Source: arXiv

    In the night of February 20, 2020, the first case of novel coronavirus disease MESHD (COVID-19) was confirmed in the Lombardy Region, Italy. In the week that followed, Lombardy experienced a very rapid increase in the number of cases. We analyzed the first 5,830 laboratory- confirmed cases TRANS to provide the first epidemiological characterization of a COVID-19 outbreak in a Western Country. Epidemiological data were collected through standardized interviews of confirmed cases TRANS and their close contacts TRANS. We collected demographic backgrounds, dates of symptom onset TRANS, clinical features, respiratory tract specimen results, hospitalization, contact tracing TRANS. We provide estimates of the reproduction number TRANS and serial interval TRANS. The epidemic in Italy started much earlier than February 20, 2020. At the time of detection of the first COVID-19 case, the epidemic had already spread in most municipalities of Southern-Lombardy. The median age TRANS for of cases is 69 years (range, 1 month to 101 years). 47% of positive subjects were hospitalized. Among these, 18% required intensive care. The mean serial interval TRANS is estimated to be 6.6 days (95% CI, 0.7 to 19). We estimate the basic reproduction number TRANS at 3.1 (95% CI, 2.9 to 3.2). We estimated a decreasing trend in the net reproduction number TRANS starting around February 20, 2020. We did not observe significantly different viral loads in nasal swabs between symptomatic and asymptomatic TRANS. The transmission TRANS potential of COVID-19 is very high and the number of critical cases may become largely unsustainable for the healthcare system in a very short-time horizon. We observed a slight decrease of the reproduction number TRANS, possibly connected with an increased population awareness and early effect of interventions. Aggressive containment strategies are required to control COVID-19 spread and catastrophic outcomes for the healthcare system.

    Investigating the Impact of Asymptomatic TRANS Carriers TRANS on COVID-19 Transmission TRANS

    Authors: Jacob B Aguilar; Jeremy Samuel Faust; Lauren M. Westafer; Juan B. Gutierrez

    doi:10.1101/2020.03.18.20037994 Date: 2020-03-20 Source: medRxiv

    Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a novel human respiratory disease MESHD caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Asymptomatic TRANS carriers TRANS of the virus display no clinical symptoms but are known to be contagious. Recent evidence reveals that this sub-population, as well as persons with mild, represent a major contributor in the propagation of COVID-19. The asymptomatic TRANS sub-population frequently escapes detection by public health surveillance systems. Because of this, the currently accepted estimates of the basic reproduction number TRANS (Ro) of the virus are inaccurate. It is unlikely that a pathogen can blanket the planet in three months with an Ro in the vicinity of 3, as reported in the literature. In this manuscript, we present a mathematical model taking into account asymptomatic TRANS carriers TRANS. Our results indicate that an initial value of the effective reproduction number TRANS could range from 5.5 to 25.4, with a point estimate of 15.4, assuming mean parameters. The first three weeks of the model exhibit exponential growth, which is in agreement with average case data collected from thirteen countries with universal health care and robust communicable disease surveillance systems; the average rate of growth in the number of reported cases is 23.3% per day during this period.

    Spatial Visualization of Cluster-Specific COVID-19 Transmission TRANS Network in South Korea During the Early Epidemic Phase

    Authors: James Yeongjun Park

    doi:10.1101/2020.03.18.20038638 Date: 2020-03-20 Source: medRxiv

    Background Coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19) has been rapidly spreading throughout China and other countries including South Korea. As of March 12, 2020, a total number of 7,869 cases and 66 deaths had been documented in South Korea. Although the first confirmed case TRANS in South Korea was identified on January 20, 2020, the number of confirmed cases TRANS showed a rapid growth on February 19, 2020 with a total number of 1,261 cases with 12 deaths based on the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC). Method Using the data of confirmed cases TRANS of COVID-19 in South Korea that are publicly available from the KCDC, this paper aims to create spatial visualizations of COVID-19 transmission TRANS between January 20, 2020 and February 19, 2020. Results Using spatial visualization, this paper identified two early transmission TRANS clusters in South Korea (Daegu cluster and capital area cluster). Using a degree-weighted centrality measure, this paper proposes potential super-spreaders of the virus in the visualized clusters. Conclusion Compared to various epidemiological measures such as the basic reproduction number TRANS, spatial visualizations of the cluster-specific transmission TRANS networks and the proposed centrality measure may be more useful to characterize super-spreaders and the spread of the virus especially in the early epidemic phase.

    Short-term predictions and prevention strategies for COVID-19: A model based study

    Authors: Sk Shahid Nadim; Indrajit Ghosh; Joydev Chattopadhyay

    id:2003.08150v3 Date: 2020-03-18 Source: arXiv

    An outbreak of respiratory disease MESHD caused by a novel coronavirus is ongoing from December 2019. As of July 22, 2020, it has caused an epidemic outbreak with more than 15 million confirmed infections TRANS infections MESHD and above 6 hundred thousand reported deaths worldwide. During this period of an epidemic when human-to-human transmission TRANS is established and reported cases of coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19) are rising worldwide, investigation of control strategies and forecasting are necessary for health care planning. In this study, we propose and analyze a compartmental epidemic model of COVID-19 to predict and control the outbreak. The basic reproduction number TRANS and control reproduction number TRANS are calculated analytically. A detailed stability analysis of the model is performed to observe the dynamics of the system. We calibrated the proposed model to fit daily data from the United Kingdom (UK) where the situation is still alarming. Our findings suggest that independent self-sustaining human-to-human spread ($ R_0 TRANS>1$, $R_c>1$) is already present. Short-term predictions show that the decreasing trend of new COVID-19 cases is well captured by the model. Further, we found that effective management of quarantined individuals is more effective than management of isolated individuals to reduce the disease burden. Thus, if limited resources are available, then investing on the quarantined individuals will be more fruitful in terms of reduction of cases.

    Transmissibility TRANS of COVID-19 and its association with temperature and humidity

    Authors: Xiao-Jing Guo; Hui Zhang; Yi-Ping Zeng

    doi:10.21203/ Date: 2020-03-17 Source: ResearchSquare

    Background: The new coronavirus disease COVID-19 outbroke in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019, and has spread by human-to-human transmission TRANS to other areas. This study evaluated the transmissibility TRANS of the infectious disease MESHD and analyzed its association with temperature and humidity, in order to put forward suggestions on how to suppress the transmission TRANS. Methods: In this study, we revised the reported data in Wuhan to estimate the actual number of confirmed cases TRANS. Then we used the equation derived from the Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered (SEIR) model to calculate R0 TRANS from January 24, 2020 to February 13, 2020 in 11 major cities in China for comparison. With the calculation results, we conducted correlation analysis and regression analysis between R0 TRANS and temperature and humidity to see the impact of weather on the transmissibility TRANS of COVID-19. Results: It was estimated that the cumulative number of confirmed cases TRANS had exceeded 45,000 by February 13, 2020 in Wuhan. The average R0 TRANS in Wuhan was 2.7011, significantly higher than those in other cities ranging from 1.7762 to 2.3700. The inflection points in the cities outside Hubei Province were between January 30, 2020 and February 3, 2020, while there had not been an obvious downward trend of R0 TRANS in Wuhan. R0 TRANS negatively correlated with both temperature and humidity, which was significant at the 0.01 level. Conclusions: The transmissibility TRANS of COVID-19 was strong and importance should be attached to the intervention of its transmission TRANS especially in Wuhan. According to the correlation between R0 TRANS and weather, the spread of disease TRANS will be suppressed as the weather warms. 

    Calibrated Intervention and Containment of the COVID-19 Pandemic

    Authors: Liang Tian; Xuefei Li; Fei Qi; Qian-Yuan Tang; Viola Tang; Jiang Liu; Zhiyuan Li; Xingye Cheng; Xuanxuan Li; Yingchen Shi; Haiguang Liu; Lei-Han Tang

    id:2003.07353v4 Date: 2020-03-16 Source: arXiv

    COVID-19 has infected more than 823,000 people globally and resulted in over 40,000 deaths as of April 1, 2020. Swift government response to contain the outbreak requires accurate and continuous census of the infected population, particularly with regards to viral carriers TRANS without severe symptoms. We take on this task by converting the symptom onset TRANS time distribution, which we calibrated, into the percentage of the latent, pre-symptomatic and symptomatic groups through a novel mathematical procedure. We then estimate the reduction of the basic reproduction number TRANS $ R_0 TRANS$ under specific disease control practices such as contact tracing TRANS, testing, social distancing, wearing masks and staying at home. When these measures are implemented in parallel, their effects on $ R_0 TRANS$ multiply. For example, if 70% of the general public wear masks and contact tracing TRANS is conducted at 60% efficiency within a 4-day time frame, epidemic growth will be flattened in the hardest hit countries. Finally, we analyze the bell-shaped curves of epidemic evolution from various affected regions and point out the significance of a universal decay rate of -0.32/day in the final eradication of the disease.

    High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission TRANS of COVID-19

    Authors: Jingyuan Wang; Ke Tang; Kai Feng; Xin Li; Weifeng Lv; Kun Chen; Fei Wang

    id:2003.05003v4 Date: 2020-03-09 Source: arXiv

    With the ongoing global pandemic of COVID-19, a question is whether the coming summer in the northern hemisphere will reduce the transmission TRANS intensity of COVID-19 with increased humidity and temperature. In this paper, we investigate this problem using the data from the cases with symptom-onset TRANS dates from January 19 to February 10, 2020 for 100 Chinese cities, and cases with confirmed TRANS dates from March 15 to April 25 for 1,005 U.S. counties. Statistical analysis is performed to assess the relationship between the transmissibility TRANS of COVID-19 and the temperature/humidity, by controlling for various demographic, socio-economic, geographic, healthcare and policy factors and correcting for cross-sectional correlation. We find a similar influence of the temperature and relative humidity on effective reproductive number TRANS ( R values TRANS) of COVID-19 for both China and the U.S. before lockdown in both countries: one-degree Celsius increase in temperature reduces R value TRANS by about 0.023 (0.026 (95% CI [-0.0395,-0.0125]) in China and 0.020 (95% CI [-0.0311, -0.0096]) in the U.S.), and one percent relative humidity rise reduces R value TRANS by 0.0078 (0.0076 (95% CI [-0.0108,-0.0045]) in China and 0.0080 (95% CI [-0.0150,-0.0010]) in the U.S.). If assuming a 30 degree and 25 percent increase in temperature and relative humidity from winter to summer in the northern hemisphere, we expect the R values TRANS to decline about 0.89 (0.69 by temperature and 0.20 by humidity). Given the notion that the non-intervened R values TRANS are around 2.5 to 3, only weather factors cannot make the R values TRANS below their critical condition of R<1, under which the epidemic diminishes gradually. Therefore, public health intervention such as social distancing is crucial to block the transmission TRANS of COVID-19 even in summer.

    Epidemiologic Characteristics of COVID-19 in Guizhou, China

    Authors: Kaike Ping

    doi:10.1101/2020.03.01.20028944 Date: 2020-03-06 Source: medRxiv

    At the end of 2019, a coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19) outbroke in Wuhan, China, and spread to Guizhou province on January of 2020. To acquire the epidemiologic characteristics of COVID-19 in Guizhou, China, we collected data on 162 laboratory- confirmed cases TRANS related to COVID-19. We described the demographic characteristics of the cases and estimated the incubation period TRANS, serial interval TRANS and basic reproduction number TRANS. We also presented two representative case studies in Guizhou province -- Case Study 1 was an example of asymptomatic TRANS carrier TRANS; and Case Study 2 was an example of a large and complex infection chain that involved four different districts spanning three provinces and eight families. With an estimation of 8 days incubation period TRANS and 6 days serial interval TRANS, our results indicate that there may exist infectiousness during the incubation period TRANS for 2019-nCoV. This increases the difficulty of screening or identifying cases related to COVID-19.

    Transmission TRANS potential of COVID-19 in South Korea

    Authors: Eunha Shim; Amna Tariq; Wongyeong Choi; Yiseul Lee; Gerardo Chowell

    doi:10.1101/2020.02.27.20028829 Date: 2020-02-29 Source: medRxiv

    Since the first identified individual of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection on Jan 20, 2020 in South Korea, the number of confirmed cases TRANS rapidly increased. As of Feb 26, 2020, 1,261 cases of COVID-19 including 12 deaths MESHD were confirmed in South Korea. Using the incidence data of COVID-19, we estimate the reproduction number TRANS at 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4-1.6), which indicates sustained transmission TRANS and support the implementation of social distancing measures to rapidly control the outbreak.

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MeSH Disease
Human Phenotype

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