Corpus overview


Overview

MeSH Disease

Human Phenotype

Transmission

Seroprevalence
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    The impact of contact tracing TRANS and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19: an individual-based modelling study

    Authors: Lander Willem; Steven Abrams; Oana Petrof; Pietro Coletti; Elise Kuylen; Pieter Libin; Signe Mogelmose; James Wambua; Sereina A Herzog; Christel Faes; - SIMID COVID19 team; Philippe Beutels; Niel Hens

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.01.20144444 Date: 2020-07-02 Source: medRxiv

    Background. The rising COVID-19 pandemic caused many governments to impose policies restricting social interactions HP social interactions TRANS. These policies have slowed down the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus to the extent that restric- tions can be gradually lifted. Models can be useful to assess the consequences of deconfinement strategies with respect to business, school and leisure activities. Methods. We adapted the individual-based model "STRIDE" to simulate interactions between the 11 million inhabitants of Belgium at the levels of households, workplaces, schools and communities. We calibrated our model to observed hospital incidence and seroprevalence SERO data. STRIDE can explore contact tracing TRANS options and account for repetitive leisure contacts in extended household settings (so called "household bubbles") with varying levels of connectivity. Findings. Household bubbles have the potential to reduce the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions by up to 90%. The effectiveness of contact tracing TRANS depends on its timing, as it becomes futile more than 4 days after the index case developed symptoms. Assuming that children TRANS have a lower level of susceptibility and lower probability to experience symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection MESHD, (partial) school closure options have relatively little impact on COVID-19 burden. Interpretation. Not only the absolute number and intensity of physical contacts drive the transmission TRANS dynamics and COVID-19 burden, also their repetitiveness is influential. Contact tracing TRANS seems essential for a controlled and persistent release of lockdown measures, but requires timely compliance to testing, reporting and self-isolation. Rapid tracing TRANS and testing, and communication ensuring continued involvement of the population are therefore essential.

    Validation and performance SERO of a quantitative IgG assay for the screening of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies SERO

    Authors: Ana M Espino; Petraleigh Pantoja; Carlos A Sariol

    doi:10.1101/2020.06.11.146332 Date: 2020-06-12 Source: bioRxiv

    The current COVID-19 epidemic imposed an unpreceded challenge to the scientific community in terms of treatment, epidemiology, diagnosis, social interaction HP social interaction TRANS, fiscal policies and many other areas. The development of accurate and reliable diagnostic tools (high specificity and sensitivity SERO) is crucial in the current period, the near future and in the long term. These assays should provide guidance to identify immune presumptive protected persons, potential plasma SERO, and/or B cell donors and vaccine development among others. Also, such assays will be contributory in supporting prospective and retrospective studies to identify the prevalence SERO and incidence of COVID-19 and to characterize the dynamics of the immune response. As of today, only thirteen serological assays SERO have received the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by the U.S. Federal Drug Administration (FDA). In this work we describe the development and validation of a quantitative IgG enzyme-linked immunoassay SERO ( ELISA SERO) using the recombinant SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein S1 domain, containing the receptor-binding domain (RBD), showing 98% sensitivity SERO, 98.9% specificity and positive and negative predictive values SERO of 100% and 99.2%, respectively. The assay showed to be useful to test for SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies SERO in plasma SERO samples from COVID-19-recovered subjects as potential donors for plasmapheresis. This assay is currently under review by the Federal Drug Administration for an Emergency Use Authorization request (Submission Number EUA201115).

    COVID-19 pandemic control: balancing detection policy and lockdown intervention under ICU sustainability

    Authors: Arthur Charpentier; Romuald Elie; Mathieu Laurière; Viet Chi Tran

    doi:10.1101/2020.05.13.20100842 Date: 2020-05-16 Source: medRxiv

    We consider here an extended $SIR$ model, including several features of the recent COVID-19 outbreak: in particular the infected MESHD and recovered individuals can either be detected (+) or undetected (-) and we also integrate an intensive care unit (ICU) capacity. Our model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of the optimal policy for the control of the epidemic dynamics using both lockdown and detection intervention levers. With parametric specification based on literature on COVID-19, we investigate the sensitivities SERO of various quantities on the optimal strategies, taking into account the subtle trade-off between the sanitary and the socio-economic cost of the pandemic, together with the limited capacity level of ICU. We identify the optimal lockdown policy as an intervention structured in 4 successive phases: First a quick and strong lockdown intervention to stop the exponential growth of the contagion; second a short transition phase to reduce the prevalence SERO of the virus; third a long period with full ICU capacity and stable virus prevalence SERO; finally a return to normal social interactions HP social interactions TRANS with disappearance of the virus. The optimal scenario hereby avoids the second wave of infection MESHD, provided the lockdown is released sufficiently slowly. We also provide optimal intervention measures with increasing ICU capacity, as well as optimization over the effort on detection of infectious and immune individuals. Whenever massive resources are introduced to detect infected individuals, the pressure on social distancing can be released, whereas the impact of detection of immune individuals reveals to be more moderate.

    COVID-19 pandemic control: balancing detection policy and lockdown intervention under ICU sustainability

    Authors: Arthur Charpentier; Romuald Elie; Mathieu Laurière; Viet Chi Tran

    id:2005.06526v3 Date: 2020-05-13 Source: arXiv

    We consider here an extended SIR model, including several features of the recent COVID-19 outbreak: in particular the infected MESHD and recovered individuals can either be detected (+) or undetected (-) and we also integrate an intensive care unit (ICU) capacity. Our model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of the optimal policy for the control of the epidemic dynamics using both lockdown and detection intervention levers. With parametric specification based on literature on COVID-19, we investigate the sensitivities SERO of various quantities on the optimal strategies, taking into account the subtle trade-off between the sanitary and the socio-economic cost of the pandemic, together with the limited capacity level of ICU. We identify the optimal lockdown policy as an intervention structured in 4 successive phases: First a quick and strong lockdown intervention to stop the exponential growth of the contagion; second a short transition phase to reduce the prevalence SERO of the virus; third a long period with full ICU capacity and stable virus prevalence SERO; finally a return to normal social interactions HP social interactions TRANS with disappearance of the virus. The optimal scenario hereby avoids the second wave of infection MESHD, provided the lockdown is released sufficiently slowly. We also provide optimal intervention measures with increasing ICU capacity, as well as optimization over the effort on detection of infectious and immune individuals. Whenever massive resources are introduced to detect infected individuals, the pressure on social distancing can be released, whereas the impact of detection of immune individuals reveals to be more moderate.

    Psychological Distress Among People Losing Work During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Australia

    Authors: Alex Collie; Luke Sheehan; Caryn van Vreden; Genevieve Grant; Peter Whiteford; Dennis Petrie; Malcolm R Sim

    doi:10.1101/2020.05.06.20093773 Date: 2020-05-12 Source: medRxiv

    Introduction: This study estimated the extent of psychological distress among people losing work during the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Australia, and examined associations between distress, nature of work loss and degree of social interaction HP social interaction TRANS. Methods: Data were from a baseline online survey of an inception cohort recruited in the weeks following the introduction of physical distancing and movement restrictions to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Australia. These restrictions resulted in widespread unemployment and working hour reduction. Psychological distress was measured using the Kessler-6 scale. Data on nature of work loss, social interactions HP social interactions TRANS, demographic, job and occupational characteristics were also collected. Regression modelling was conducted to determine the relationship between work loss, social interactions HP social interactions TRANS and psychological distress, accounting for confounders. Results: Among the 551 study participants 31% reported severe psychological distress, 35% in those with job loss MESHD and 28% in those still employed but working less. Those who had significantly greater odds of high psychological distress were younger, female TRANS, had lost their job and had lower social interactions HP social interactions TRANS. The relationship between job loss MESHD and distress became non-significant when financial stress, and occupation were included in the regression model, but the protective effect of higher social interactions HP social interactions TRANS remained significant. Discussion: There was a high prevalence SERO of psychological distress in people losing work during the COVID-19 pandemic. Age TRANS, gender TRANS, job loss MESHD and social interactions HP social interactions TRANS were strongly associated with distress. Interventions that promote social interaction HP social interaction TRANS may help to reduce distress during among people losing work during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Who is more susceptible to Covid-19 infection MESHD and mortality in the States?

    Authors: Yang Han; Victor O.K. Li; Jacqueline C.K. Lam; Peiyang Guo; Ruiqiao Bai; Wilton W.T. Fok

    doi:10.1101/2020.05.01.20087403 Date: 2020-05-06 Source: medRxiv

    Background: A novel coronavirus was detected in Wuhan, China and reported to WHO on 31 December 2019. WHO declared a global pandemic on 11 March 2020. The first case in the US was reported in January 2020. Since mid-March 2020, the number of confirmed cases TRANS has increased exponentially in the States, with 1.1 million confirmed cases TRANS, and 57.4 thousand deaths as of 30 April 2020. Even though some believe that this new lethal coronavirus does not show any partiality to the rich, previous epidemiological studies find that the poor in the US are more susceptible to the epidemics due to their limited access to preventive measures and crowded living conditions. In this study, we postulate that the rich is more susceptible to Covid-19 infection MESHD during the early stage before social distancing measures have been introduced. This may be attributed to the higher mobility (both inter- and intra-city), given their higher tendency to travel TRANS for business/education, and to more social interactions HP social interactions TRANS. However, we postulate after the lockdown/social distancing has been imposed, the infection among the rich may be reduced due to better living conditions. Further, the rich may be able to afford better medical treatment once infected, hence a relatively lower mortality. In contrast, without proper medical insurance coverage, the poor may be prevented from receiving timely and proper medical treatment, hence a higher mortality. Method: We will collect the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the US during the period of Jan 2020 to Apr 2020 from Johns Hopkins University, also the number of Covid-19 tests in the US from the health departments across the States. County-level socio-economic status (SES) including age TRANS, sex, race/ethnicity, income, education, occupation, employment status, immigration status, and housing price, will be collected from the US Census Bureau. State/county-level health conditions including the prevalence SERO of chronic diseases MESHD will be collected from the US CDC. State/county-level movement data including international and domestic flights will be collected from the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics. We will also collect the periods of lockdown/social distancing. Regression models are constructed to examine the relationship between SES, and Covid-19 infection MESHD and mortality at the state/county-level before and after lockdown/social distancing, while accounting for Covid-19 testing capacities and co-morbidities. Expected Findings: We expect that there is a positive correlation between Covid-19 infection MESHD and SES at the state/county-level in the US before social distancing. In addition, we expect a negative correlation between Covid-19 mortality and SES.

    Modeling serological testing SERO to inform relaxation of social distancing for COVID-19 control

    Authors: Alicia Nicole Mullis Kraay; Kristin Nelson; Conan Zhao; Joshua S Weitz; Benjamin A Lopman

    doi:10.1101/2020.04.24.20078576 Date: 2020-05-01 Source: medRxiv

    The value of serological testing SERO to inform the public health response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is debated. Using a transmission TRANS model, we examined how serology can be implemented to allow seropositive individuals to resume more normal levels of social interaction HP social interaction TRANS while offsetting the risks. We simulated the use of widespread serological testing SERO with realistic assay characteristics, in which seropositive individuals partially restore their social contacts and act as immunological shields. If social distancing is relaxed by 50% at the same time that quarterly serological screening SERO is initiated, approximately 120,000 deaths could be averted and a quarter of the US population could be released from social distancing in the first year of the epidemic, compared to a scenario without serological testing SERO. This strategy has the potential to substantially flatten the COVID-19 epidemic curve while also allowing a substantial number of individuals to safely return to social and economic interactions.

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MeSH Disease
Human Phenotype
Transmission
Seroprevalence


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