Corpus overview


Overview

MeSH Disease

Human Phenotype

Falls (48)

Rigidity (1)

Shock (1)

Pneumonia (1)

Growth delay (1)


Transmission

Seroprevalence
    displaying 1 - 10 records in total 49
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    Investigation into the Release of Respiratory Aerosols by Brass Instruments and Mitigation Measures with Respect to Covid-19

    Authors: Alexander Stuart Parker; Kenneth Crookston

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.31.20165837 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    There are a number of recent studies detailing the transmission TRANS of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) via both Droplet and Aerosol airborne particle routes of infection MESHD. Because of this, it is necessary to understand the release of different sized particles in activities such as playing brass instruments in order for an analysis of risk to take HP place for such activities. In this investigation, the quantity and size of particles released by brass instruments while they are played was analysed for 7 different types of brass instrument. This was contrasted with the same individuals breathing as a comparison for more general activities as well as the effect of a mitigating polycotton barrier over the end of their instruments. To investigate the particles released, the particles were size sorted and counted with a six-channel laser particle counter. Multiple measurements were made by each individual in each condition investigated. The mean concentration exiting across all instruments measured was found to be 1.21x107{+/-}1.03x106 Aerosol type particles/m3 and 1.43x104{+/-}9.01x102 Droplet type particles/m3 per minute. When breathing, the mean count was 1.61x107{+/-}1.33x106 Aerosol type particle/m3 and 5.45x103{+/-}1.20x103 Droplet type particles/m3. When playing with a barrier cover, the mean number of particles emitted fell HP to 2.60x106{+/-}2.11x105 Aerosol type particle/m3 and 5.20x103{+/-}8.02x102 Droplet type particles/m3. This barrier represented an average 78.5% reduction for the number of respiratory Aerosol type particles and 63.8% reduction for Droplet type particles compared to playing an instrument without the barrier covering. It was investigated what effect playing for a more extended period of time had on the release of particles with comparisons made to singing, breathing and covering the instruments' bell ends with a barrier cap. This showed that the mean number of Aerosol type particles produced while playing was 5.38x107{+/-}3.15x106 Aerosol type particles/m3 produced and showed a significant drop in Aerosol type particle production when playing with a barrier used, with a mean average of 2.28x106{+/-}8.01x104 Aerosol type particles/m3. Both breathing and singing showed consistent numbers of Aerosol type particles produced with means of 6.59x107{+/-}7.94x105 Aerosol type particles/m3 and 5.28x107{+/-}5.36x105 Aerosol type particles/m3 respectively. This showed a drop in mean Aerosol type particles/m3 of 95.7% when using a barrier cap compared to playing without a barrier. It is concluded that, while playing a brass instrument, the propagation of respiratory Aerosols does occur and, to a smaller extent, so do Droplet size particles, but at a lower level than when the subject was breathing without an instrument. Finally, it was shown that the use of a barrier cap on the bell end of the instrument offers a significant reduction in the production of respiratory Aerosols into the immediate surroundings, which offers a possible mitigation method for playing in groups from the release of Aerosol type particles, especially in hard to ventilate spaces.

    The basic reproduction number TRANS of SARS-CoV-2: a scoping review of available evidence

    Authors: Ann Barber; John M Griffin; Miriam Casey; Aine Collins; Elizabeth A Lane; Quirine Ten Bosch; Mart De Jong; David Mc Evoy; Andrew W Byrne; Conor G McAloon; Francis Butler; Kevin Hunt; Simon J More

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.28.20163535 Date: 2020-07-30 Source: medRxiv

    Background: The transmissibility TRANS of SARS-CoV-2 determines both the ability of the virus to invade a population and the strength of intervention that would be required to contain or eliminate the spread of infection MESHD. The basic reproduction number TRANS, R0 TRANS, provides a quantitative measure of the transmission TRANS potential of a pathogen. Objective: Conduct a scoping review of the available literature providing estimates of R0 TRANS for SARS-CoV-2, provide an overview of the drivers of variation in R0 TRANS estimates and the considerations taken in the calculation of the parameter. Design: Scoping review of available literature between the 01 December 2019 and 07 May 2020. Data sources: Both peer-reviewed and pre-print articles were searched for on PubMed, Google Scholar, MedRxiv and BioRxiv. Selection criteria: Studies were selected for review if (i) the estimation of R0 TRANS represented either the initial stages of the outbreak or the initial stages of the outbreak prior to the onset of widespread population restriction (lockdown), (ii) the exact dates of the study period were provided and (iii) the study provided primary estimates of R0 TRANS. Results: A total of 20 R0 TRANS estimates were extracted from 15 studies. There was substantial variation in the estimates reported. Estimates derived from mathematical models fell HP within a wider range of 1.94-6.94 than statistical models which fell HP between the range of 2.2 to 4.4. Several studies made assumptions about the length of the infectious period TRANS which ranged from 5.8-20 days and the serial interval TRANS which ranged from 4.41-14 days. For a given set of parameters a longer duration of infectiousness or a longer serial interval TRANS equates to a higher R0 TRANS. Several studies took measures to minimise bias in early case reporting, to account for the potential occurrence of super-spreading events, and to account for early sub-exponential epidemic growth. Conclusions: The variation in reported estimates of R0 TRANS reflects the complex nature of the parameter itself, including the context (i.e. social/spatial structure), the methodology used to estimate the parameter, and model assumptions. R0 TRANS is a fundamental parameter in the study of infectious disease MESHD dynamics however it provides limited practical applicability outside of the context in which it was estimated, and should be calculated and interpreted with this in mind.

    Capping Mobility to Control COVID-19: A Collision-based Infectious Disease MESHD Transmission TRANS Model

    Authors: Yunfeng Shi; Xuegang Ban

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.25.20162016 Date: 2020-07-28 Source: medRxiv

    We developed a mobility-informed disease MESHD- transmission TRANS model for COVID-19, inspired by collision theory in gas-phase chemistry. This simple kinetic model leads to a closed-form infectious population as a function of time and cumulative mobility. This model uses fatality data from Johns Hopkins to infer the infectious population in the past, and mobility data from Google, without social-distancing policy, geological or demographic inputs. It was found that the model appears to be valid for twenty hardest hit counties in the United States. Based on this model, the number of infected people grows (shrinks) exponentially once the relative mobility exceeds ( falls HP below) a critical value (~30% for New York City and ~60% for all other counties, relative to a median mobility from January 3 to February 6, 2020). A simple mobility cap can be used by government at different levels to control COVID-19 transmission TRANS in reopening or imposing another shutdown.

    Linking Outdoor Air Temperature and SARS-CoV-2 Transmission TRANS in the US Using a Two Parameter Transmission TRANS Model

    Authors: Ty Newell

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.20.20158238 Date: 2020-07-25 Source: medRxiv

    Outdoor temperature lower than 50F and greater than 70F is shown to nearly double the transmission TRANS efficiency of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Outdoor temperature is an important factor behind the current surge in US Covid-19 cases. Correlation of northern state infection MESHD data and outdoor temperatures is used to identify the change in disease MESHD transmission TRANS efficiency as northern states passed through the lower temperature bound (50F) in spring, and more recently transitioned to temperatures above the higher bound (70F). At current disease MESHD transmission TRANS efficiency levels, social distancing must be increased above a UMD Social Distance Index (SDI) level of 36 to stop the accelerated increase of daily infection MESHD cases. At current disease MESHD transmission TRANS efficiency (G=0.19) and SDI of 33, the US will approach 150,000 infections MESHD per day in September before declining as average US temperature falls HP below 70F. A primary reason for enhanced disease MESHD transmission TRANS below 50F and above 70F is attributed to inadequate indoor ventilation. Swing season occurs when outdoor temperatures are between 50F and 70F, and is the time of year when homes and buildings are opened to the outdoors. Increased fresh air ventilation (greater than 40cfm per person), improved air filtration (MERV11 and greater filters), and UVGI (Ultraviolet Germicidal Irradiation, 0.02WUV per cfm airflow) coupled with wearing face masks, 6ft distancing and surface sanitation are estimated to reduce indoor disease MESHD transmission TRANS probability to a third of the transmission TRANS probability resulting from standard building ventilation practice.

    Epidemiological and cohort study finds no association between COVID-19 and Guillain-Barre syndrome MESHD

    Authors: Stephen Keddie; Julia Pakpoor; Christina Mousele; Menelaos Pipis; Pedro M Machado; Mark Foster; Christopher J Record; Ryan Keh; Janev Fehmi; Ross W Paterson; Viraj Bharambe; Lisa Clayton; Claire Allen; Olivia Price; Jasmine Wall; Annamaria Kiss-csenki; Dipa P Rathnasabapathi; Ruth Geraldes; Tatyana Yermakova; Josh King-Robson; Maya Zosmer; Sanjeev Rajakulendran; Ross Nortley; Charles Marshall; Edward Newman; Niranjanan Nirmalananthan; Guru Kumar; Ashwin A Pinto; James Holt; Tim Lavin; Katie Brennan; Michael Zandi; Dipa L Jayaseelan; Jane Pritchard; Robert DM Hadden; Hadi Manji; Hugh J Willison; Simon Rinaldi; Aisling S Carr; Michael P Lunn

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.24.20161471 Date: 2020-07-24 Source: medRxiv

    Background Reports of Guillain-Barre Syndrome MESHD (GBS) have emerged during the Coronavirus Disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This epidemiological and cohort study sought to investigate any causative association between COVID-19 infection MESHD and GBS. Methods The epidemiology of GBS cases reported via the UK National Immunoglobulin Database were studied from 2016-2019 and compared to cases reported during the COVID-19 pandemic. For the cohort study, members of the British Peripheral Nerve Society reported all cases of GBS during the pandemic. The clinical features, investigation findings and outcomes of COVID-19 (definite or probable) and non-COVID-19 associated GBS cases were compared. Results The UK GBS incidence from 2016-2019 was 1.65-1.88 per 100,000 people per year. GBS and COVID-19 incidence varied between regions and did not correlate (r = 0.06, 95% CI -0.56 to 0.63, p=0.86). GBS incidence fell HP between March and May 2020 compared to the same months of 2016-2019. Forty-seven GBS cases were included in the cohort study (13 definite, 12 probable COVID-19 and 22 non-COVID-19). There were no significant differences in the pattern of weakness, time to nadir, neurophysiology, CSF findings or outcome. Intubation was more frequent in the COVID-19+ve cohort (7/13, 54% vs 5/22, 23% in COVID negative) thought to be related directly to COVID-19 pulmonary involvement. Conclusions This study finds no epidemiological or phenotypic clues of SARS-CoV-2 being causative of GBS. GBS incidence has fallen HP during the pandemic which may be the influence of lockdown measures reducing transmission TRANS of GBS inducing pathogens such as Campylobacter jejuni and respiratory viruses.

    Changes in Emergency MESHD Department attendances before and after COVID-19 lockdown implementation: a cross sectional study of one urban NHS Hospital Trust

    Authors: Kate Honeyford; Charles Coughlan; Paul Expert; Gabriel Burcea; Ian Maconochie; Anne Kinderlerer; Graham S Cooke; Ceire S Costelloe

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.20.20157560 Date: 2020-07-21 Source: medRxiv

    Background Emergency MESHD Department (ED) attendances have fallen HP across the UK since the "lockdown" introduced on 23rd March 2020 to limit the spread of coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19). We hypothesised that reductions would vary by patient age TRANS and disease MESHD type. We examined pre- and in-lockdown ED attendances for two COVID-19 unrelated diagnoses; one likely to be affected by lockdown measures ( gastroenteritis MESHD) and one likely to be unaffected ( appendicitis MESHD). Methods Retrospective cross-sectional study conducted across two EDs in one London hospital Trust. We compared all adult TRANS and paediatric ED attendances, before (January 2020) and during lockdown (March/April 2020). Key patient demographics, method of arrival and discharge location were compared. We used SNOMED codes to define attendances for gastroenteritis MESHD and appendicitis MESHD. Results ED attendances fell HP from 1129 per day before lockdown to 584 in-lockdown; 51.7% of pre-lockdown rates. In-lockdown attendances were lowest for under-18s (16.0% of pre-lockdown). The proportion of patients admitted to hospital increased from 17.3% to 24.0% and the proportion admitted to intensive care increased four-fold. Attendances for gastroenteritis MESHD fell HP from 511 to 103; 20.2% of pre-lockdown rates. Attendances for appendicitis MESHD also decreased, from 144 to 41; 28.5% of pre-lockdown rates. Conclusion ED attendances fell HP substantially following lockdown implementation. The biggest reduction was for under-18s. We observed reductions in attendances for gastroenteritis MESHD and appendicitis MESHD. This may reflect lower rates of infectious disease MESHD transmission TRANS, though the fall HP in appendicitis MESHD-related attendances suggests that behavioural factors are also important. Larger studies are urgently needed to understand changing patterns of ED use and access to emergency MESHD care during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 infection MESHD infection risk TRANS infection risk TRANS risk within the Apple/Google exposure notification framework to inform quarantine recommendations

    Authors: Amanda M Wilson; Nathan Aviles; Paloma I Beamer; Zsombor Szabo; Kacey C Ernst; Joanna Masel

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.17.20156539 Date: 2020-07-19 Source: medRxiv

    Background: Bluetooth-based exposure notification apps can supplement manual contact tracing TRANS to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission TRANS. Their speed, scalability, and privacy preservation are generally acknowledged, but less exploited are smartphones' accurate measurement of duration, and ability to automatically calculate risk from multiple inputs. Methods: We model uncertainty in the shape of an exhaled virus-containing plume, inhalation parameters, and distance as a function of Bluetooth attenuation. We assume relative rates of viral shedding depend on the timing of exposure relative to symptom onset TRANS. We calibrate an exponential dose-response curve on the basis of the infection MESHD probabilities of household contacts TRANS. The conditional probability of current or future infectiousness, conditioned on how long post-exposure an exposed individual has been free of symptoms, decreases during quarantine, with shape determined by the distribution of incubation periods TRANS, proportion of asymptomatic TRANS cases, and distribution of asymptomatic TRANS shedding durations. It can be adjusted for negative test results using Bayes Theorem. Findings: As an example of our calculations, fifteen minutes of close contact TRANS with a high-shedding individual, given a 15% asymptomatic infection MESHD asymptomatic TRANS rate and no testing, would require 5- and 14-day quarantine for their risk of current or future infectiousness to fall HP below 0.84% and 0.14% risk, respectively. Interpretation: The Covid-Watch app is currently programmed either to use a threshold on initial infection MESHD infection risk TRANS infection risk TRANS risk to determine 14-day quarantine onset, or on the conditional probability of current and future infectiousness conditions to determine both quarantine and duration. Either threshold can be set by public health authorities.

    Impact of COVID-19 Lockdown Policy on Homicide, Suicide, and Motor Vehicle Deaths MESHD in Peru

    Authors: Renzo JC Calderon-Anyosa; Jay S Kaufman

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.11.20150193 Date: 2020-07-14 Source: medRxiv

    Introduction: Although lockdown measures to stop COVID-19 have direct effects on disease MESHD transmission TRANS, their impact on violent and accidental deaths MESHD remains unknown. Our study aims to assess the early impact of COVID-19 lockdown on violent and accidental deaths MESHD in Peru. Methods: Based on data from the Peruvian National Death MESHD Information System, an interrupted time series analysis was performed to assess the immediate impact and change in the trend of COVID-19 lockdown on external causes of death MESHD including homicide, suicide, and traffic accidents. The analysis was stratified by sex and the time unit was every 15 days. Results: All forms of deaths MESHD examined presented a sudden drop after the lockdown. The biggest drop was in deaths MESHD related to traffic accidents, with a reduction of 12.66 deaths MESHD per million men per month (95% CI: -15.56, -9.76) and 3.64 deaths MESHD per million women per month (95% CI:-5.25, -2.03). Homicide and suicide presented similar level drop in women, while the homicide reduction was twice the size of the suicide reduction in men. The slope in suicide in men during the lock-down period increased by 3.62 deaths MESHD per million men per year (95% CI:0.06, 7.18). No other change in slope was detected. Conclusions: Violent and accidental deaths MESHD presented a sudden drop after the lockdown was implemented and an increase in suicide in men was observed. Falls HP in mobility have a natural impact on traffic accidents, however, the patterns for suicide and homicide are less intuitive and reveal important characteristics of these events, although we expect all of these changes to be transient.

    Modeling and Preparedness: The Transmission TRANS Dynamics of COVID-19 Outbreak in Provinces of Ecuador

    Authors: Carlos Enrique Bustamante Orellana; Jordy Jose Cevallos Chavez; Cesar Montalvo; Jeff Sullivan; Edwin Michael; Anuj Mubayi

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.09.20150078 Date: 2020-07-11 Source: medRxiv

    Coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19), a novel infectious disease MESHD first identified in December 2019 in the city of Wuhan of China, is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome MESHD coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease MESHD has become a pandemic in just a few months and spread globally with more than 2.89 million cases and 203,000 deaths MESHD across 185 countries, as of April 26th, 2020. Ecuador has reported one of the highest rates of COVID-19 in Latin America, with more than 10K cases and 500 deaths MESHD in a country of approximately 17 million people. The dynamics of the outbreak is being observed quite different in different provinces of Ecuador with high reported prevalence SERO in some low population density provinces. In this study, we aim to understand variations in outbreaks between provinces and provide assistance in essential preparedness planning in order to respond effectively to ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. The study estimated the critical level of quarantine rate along with corresponding leakage in order to avoid overwhelming the local health care system. The results suggest that provinces with high population density can avoid a large disease MESHD burden provided they initiate early and stricter quarantine measures even under low isolation rate. To best of our knowledge, this study is first from the region to determine which provinces will need much preparation for current outbreak in fall HP and which might need more help.

    Clinical utility of targeted SARS-CoV-2 serology testing to aid the diagnosis and management of suspected missed, late or post-COVID-19 infection MESHD syndromes MESHD: results from a pilot service

    Authors: Nicola Sweeney; Blair Merrick; Suzanne Pickering; Rui Pedro Galao; Alina Botgros; Harry D. Wilson; Adrian W. Signell; Gilberto Betancor; Mark Kia Ik Tan; John Ramble; Neophytos Kouphou; Sam Acors; Carl Graham; Jeffrey Seow; Eithne MacMahon; Stuart J. D. Neil; Michael H. Malim; Katie Doores; Sam Douthwaite; Rahul Batra; Gaia Nebbia; Jonathan D. Edgeworth

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.10.20150540 Date: 2020-07-11 Source: medRxiv

    Objectives: Determine indications and clinical utility of SARS-CoV-2 serology testing in adults TRANS and children TRANS. Design: Prospective evaluation of initial three weeks of a daily Monday to Friday pilot SARS-CoV-2 serology service for patients. Setting: Early post 'first-wave' SARS-CoV-2 transmission TRANS period at single centre London teaching hospital that provides care to the local community, as well as regional and national referral pathways for specialist services. Participants: 110 (72 adults TRANS, 38 children TRANS, age TRANS range 0-83 years, 52.7% female TRANS (n=58)). Interventions: Patient serum SERO from vetted referrals tested on CE marked and internally validated lateral flow immunoassay SERO (LFIA) (SureScreen Diagnostics) detecting antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 SERO spike proteins, with result and clinical interpretation provided to the direct care team. Main outcome measures: Performance SERO characteristics, source and nature of referrals, feasibility and clinical utility of the service, particularly the benefit for clinical decision-making. Results: The LFIA was deemed suitable for clinical advice and decision making following evaluation with 310 serum samples SERO from SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive patients and 300 pre-pandemic samples, giving a sensitivity SERO and specificity of 96.1% and 99.3% respectively. For the pilot, 115 referrals were received leading to 113 tests performed on 108 participants (sample not available for two participants); paediatrics (n=35), medicine (n=69), surgery (n=2) and general practice (n=2). 43.4% participants (n=49) had detectable antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 SERO. There were three main indications for serology; new acute presentations potentially triggered by recent COVID-19 infection MESHD e.g. PIMS-TS (n=26) and pulmonary embolism MESHD pulmonary embolism HP (n=5), potential missed diagnoses in context of a recent compatible illness (n=40), and making infection MESHD control and immunosuppression treatment decisions in persistently SARS-CoV-2 RNA PCR positive individuals (n=6). Conclusions: This study shows acceptable performance SERO characteristics, feasibility and clinical utility of a SARS-CoV-2 serology service using a rapid, inexpensive and portable assay for adults TRANS and children TRANS presenting with a range of clinical indications. Results correlated closely with a confirmatory in-house ELISA SERO. The study showed the benefit of introducing a serology service where there is a reasonable pre-test probability, and the result can be linked with clinical advice or intervention. Experience thus far is that the volume of requests from hospital referral routes are manageable within existing clinical and laboratory services; however, the demand from community referrals has not yet been assessed. Given recent evidence for a rapid decline in antibodies SERO, particularly following mild infection MESHD, there is likely a limited window of opportunity to realise the benefit of serology testing for individuals infected during the 'first-wave' before they potentially fall HP below a measurable threshold. Rapidly expanding availability of serology services for NHS patients will also help understand the long-term implications of serostatus and prior infection MESHD in different patient groups, particularly before emergence of any 'second-wave' outbreak or introduction of a vaccination programme.

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MeSH Disease
Human Phenotype
Transmission
Seroprevalence


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