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MeSH Disease

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SARS-CoV-2 proteins

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    Individually Optimal Choices can be Collectively Disastrous in COVID-19 MESHD Disease Control

    Authors: Madison Stoddard; Debra Van Egeren; Kaitlyn Johnson; Smriti Rao; Josh Furgeson; Douglas White; Ryan Nolan; Natasha Hochberg; Arijit Chakravarty

    doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-143573/v1 Date: 2021-01-08 Source: ResearchSquare

    Background: The word ‘pandemic’ conjures dystopian images of bodies stacked in the streets and societies on the brink of collapse. Despite this frightening picture, denialism and noncompliance with public health measures are common in the historical record, for example during the 1918 Influenza pandemic or the 2015 Ebola epidemic. The unique characteristics of SARS-CoV-2—its high basic reproduction number (R0), time-limited natural immunity and considerable potential for asymptomatic spread—exacerbate the public health repercussions of noncompliance with interventions (such as vaccines and masks) to limit disease transmission. Our work explores the rationality and impact of noncompliance with COVID-19 MESHD disease control measures. Methods: In this work, we used game theory to explore when noncompliance confers a perceived benefit to individuals. We then used epidemiological modeling to predict the impact of noncompliance on control of COVID-19 MESHD, demonstrating that the presence of a noncompliant subpopulation prevents suppression of disease spread. Results: Our modeling demonstrating that noncompliance is a Nash equilibrium under a broad set of conditions, and that the existence of a noncompliant population can result in extensive endemic disease in the long-term after a return to pre-pandemic social and economic activity. Endemic disease MESHD poses a threat for both compliant and noncompliant individuals; all community members are protected if complete suppression is achieved, which is only possible with a high degree of compliance. For interventions that are highly effective at preventing disease spread, however, the consequences of noncompliance are borne disproportionately by noncompliant individuals. Conclusions: In sum, our work demonstrates the limits of free-market approaches to compliance with disease control measures during a pandemic. The act of noncompliance with disease intervention measures creates a negative externality, rendering COVID-19 MESHD disease control ineffective in the short term and making complete suppression impossible in the long term. Our work underscores the importance of developing effective strategies for prophylaxis through public health measures aimed at complete suppression and the need to focus on compliance at a population level.

    Significant Relaxation of SARS-CoV-2-Targeted Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Will Result in Profound Mortality: A New York State Modelling Study

    Authors: Benjamin U. Hoffman

    doi:10.1101/2020.05.08.20095505 Date: 2020-05-12 Source: medRxiv

    Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV 2) is the most significant global health crisis of the 21st century. The aim of this study was to develop a model to estimate the effect of undocumented infections, seasonal infectivity MESHD, immunity, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social distancing, on the transmission, morbidity, and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 in New York State (NYS). Simulations revealed dramatic infectivity driven by undocumented infections, and a peak basic reproductive number in NYS of 5.7. NPIs have been effective, and relaxation >50% will result in tens-of-thousands more deaths. Endemic infection MESHD is likely to occur in the absence of profound sustained immunity. As a result, until an effective vaccine or other effective pharmaceutical intervention is developed, it will be critical to not reduce NPIs >50% below current levels. This study establishes fundamental characteristics of SARS CoV 2 transmission, which can help policymakers navigate combating this virus in the coming years.

    System Engineering and Overshoot Damping for Epidemics Such as COVID-19 MESHD

    Authors: Robert L. Shuler; Theodore Koukouvitis; Dyske Suematsu

    id:202005.0027/v2 Date: 2020-05-05 Source: Preprints.org

    The goal of this paper is to contribute the perspective of a systems engineer to the effort to fight pandemics. The availability of low latency case data and effectiveness of social distancing suggest there is sufficient control for successful smoothing and targeting almost any desired level of low or high cases and immunity. This control proceeds from spontaneous public reaction to caseloads and news as well as government mediated recommendations and orders. We simulate multi-step and intermittent-with-feedback partial unlock of social distancing for rapidly-spreading moderate-mortality epidemics and pandemics similar to COVID-19 MESHD. Optimized scenarios reduce total cases and therefore deaths MESHD typically 8% and up to 30% by controlling overshoot as groups cross the herd immunity threshold, or lower thresholds to manage medical resources and provide economic relief. We analyze overshoot and provide guidance on how to damp it. However, we find overshoot damping, whether from expert planning or natural public self-isolation, increases the likelihood of transition to an endemic disease. An SIR model is used to evaluate scenarios that are intended to function over a wide variety of parameters. The end result is not a case trajectory prediction, but a prediction of which strategies produce near-optimal results over a wide range of epidemiological and social parameters. Overshoot damping perversely increases the chance a pathogen will transition to an endemic disease MESHD, so we briefly describe the undershoot conditions that promote transition to endemic status.

    Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the COVID-19 pandemic MESHD COVID-19 pandemic MESHD

    Authors: Rachel E. Baker; Wenchang Yang; Gabriel A. Vecchi; C. Jessica E. Metcalf; Bryan T Grenfell

    doi:10.1101/2020.04.03.20052787 Date: 2020-04-07 Source: medRxiv

    Preliminary evidence suggests that climate may modulate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Yet it remains unclear whether seasonal and geographic variations in climate can substantially alter the pandemic trajectory, given high susceptibility is a core driver. Here, we use a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic probing different scenarios of climate-dependence based on known coronavirus biology. We find that while variations in humidity may be important for endemic infections MESHD, during the pandemic stage of an emerging pathogen such as SARS-CoV-2 climate may drive only modest changes to pandemic size and duration. Our results suggest that, in the absence of effective control measures, significant cases in the coming months are likely to occur in more humid (warmer) climates, irrespective of the climate-dependence of transmission and that summer temperatures will not substantially limit pandemic growth.

The ZB MED preprint Viewer preVIEW includes all COVID-19 related preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv, from ChemRxiv, from ResearchSquare, from arXiv and from Preprints.org and is updated on a daily basis (7am CET/CEST).
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MeSH Disease
HGNC Genes
SARS-CoV-2 Proteins


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