Importance Risk calculators can facilitate shared medical decision-making. Demographics, comorbidities, medication use, geographic region, and other factors may increase the risk for
COVID-19 MESHD-related complications among patients with
IBD MESHD. Objectives Develop an individualized prognostic risk prediction tool for predicting the probability of adverse
COVID-19 MESHD outcomes in patients with
IBD MESHD. Design, Setting, and Participants This study developed and validated prognostic penalized logistic regression models using reports to Surveillance Epidemiology of Coronavirus Under Research Exclusion for
Inflammatory Bowel Disease MESHD (SECURE-IBD) from March-October 2020. Model development was done using a training data set (85% of cases reported March 13 - September 15, 2020), and model validation was conducted using a test data set (the remaining 15% of cases plus all cases reported September 16 - October 20, 2020). Main Outcomes and Measures
COVID-19 MESHD related: Hospitalization+: composite outcome of hospitalization, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, or
death MESHD ICU+: composite outcome of ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, or
death Death MESHD We assessed the resulting models' discrimination using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curves and reported the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results We included 2709 cases from 59 countries (mean age 41.2 years [s.d. 18], 50.2% male). A total of 633 (24%) were hospitalized, 137 (5%) were admitted to the ICU or intubated, and 69 (3%) died. 2009 patients comprised the training set and 700 the test set. The models demonstrated excellent discrimination, with a test set AUC (95% CI) of 0.79 (0.75, 0.83) for Hospitalization+, 0.88 (0.82, 0.95) for ICU+, and 0.94 (0.89, 0.99) for
Death MESHD. Age, comorbidities, corticosteroid use, and male gender were associated with higher risk of
death MESHD, while use of biologic therapies was associated with a lower risk. Conclusions and Relevance Prognostic models can effectively predict who is at higher risk for
COVID-19 MESHD-related adverse outcomes in a population of
IBD MESHD patients. A free online risk calculator (https://covidibd.org/
covid-19 MESHD-risk-calculator/) is available for healthcare providers to facilitate discussion of risks due to
COVID-19 MESHD with
IBD MESHD patients. The tool numerically and visually summarizes the patient's probabilities of adverse outcomes and associated CIs. Helping physicians identify their highest-risk patients will be important in the coming months as cases rise in the US and worldwide. This tool can also serve as a model for risk stratification in other
chronic diseases MESHD.