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MeSH Disease

HGNC Genes

SARS-CoV-2 proteins

ProteinS (51)

ProteinN (19)

NSP5 (11)

ComplexRdRp (9)

ProteinE (6)


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    Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak

    Authors: Shi Zhao; Qianying Lin; Jinjun Ran; Salihu Sabiu MUSA; Guangpu Yang; Weiming Wang; Yijun Lou; Daozhou Gao; Lin Yang; Daihai He; Maggie H Wang

    doi:10.1101/2020.01.23.916395 Date: 2020-01-24 Source: bioRxiv

    BackgroundsAn ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia MESHD hit a major city of China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provinces/regions of China and countries. We present estimates of the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak. MethodsAccounting for the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, we modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases time series, in mainland China from January 10 to January 24, 2020, through the exponential growth. With the estimated intrinsic growth rate ({gamma}), we estimated R0 by using the serial intervals (SI) of two other well-known coronavirus diseases, MERS and SARS, as approximations for the true unknown SI. FindingsThe early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 2.24 (95%CI: 1.96-2.55) to 3.58 (95%CI: 2.89-4.39) associated with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. We demonstrated that changes in reporting rate substantially affect estimates of R0. ConclusionThe mean estimate of R0 for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 2.24 to 3.58, and significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks.

    A mathematical model for simulating the transmission of Wuhan novel Coronavirus

    Authors: Tianmu Chen; Jia Rui; Qiupeng Wang; Zeyu Zhao; Jing-An Cui; Ling Yin

    doi:10.1101/2020.01.19.911669 Date: 2020-01-19 Source: bioRxiv

    As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia MESHD of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probable be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from a seafood market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People transmission network model. The basic reproduction number (R0) was calculated from the RP MESHD model to assess the transmissibility of the 2019-nCoV.

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MeSH Disease
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SARS-CoV-2 Proteins


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