Corpus overview


Overview

MeSH Disease

Human Phenotype

Pneumonia (101)

Hypertension (76)

Fever (53)

Cough (46)

Obesity (41)


Transmission

Seroprevalence
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    The Age TRANS Pattern of the Male TRANS- to- Female TRANS Ratio in Mortality from COVID-19 Mirrors that of Cardiovascular Disease MESHD but not Cancer in the General Population

    Authors: Ila Nimgaonkar; Linda Valeri; Ezra S. Susser; Sabiha Hussain; Jag Sunderram; Abraham Aviv

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.10.20149013 Date: 2020-07-11

    Background: Males TRANS are at a higher risk of dying from COVID-19. Older age TRANS and cardiovascular disease MESHD are also associated with COVID-19 mortality. We compared the male TRANS-to- female TRANS (sex) ratios in mortality by age TRANS for COVID-19 with cardiovascular mortality and cancer mortality in the general population. Methods: We obtained data from official government sources in the US and five European countries: Italy, Spain, France, Germany, and the Netherlands. We analyzed COVID-19 deaths MESHD by sex and age TRANS in these countries and similarly analyzed their deaths MESHD from cardiovascular disease MESHD (coronary heart disease MESHD or stroke MESHD stroke HP) and cancer, the two leading age TRANS-related causes of death MESHD in middle-to-high income countries. Findings: In both the US and European countries, the sex ratio of deaths MESHD from COVID-19 exceeded one throughout adult TRANS life. The sex ratio increased up to a peak in midlife, and then declined markedly in later life. This pattern was also observed for the sex ratio of deaths MESHD from cardiovascular disease MESHD, but not cancer, in the general populations of the US and European countries. Interpretation: The sex ratios of deaths MESHD from COVID-19 and from cardiovascular disease MESHD exhibit similar patterns across the adult TRANS life course. The underlying mechanisms are poorly understood, but could stem partially from sex-related biological differences that underlie the similar pattern for cardiovascular disease MESHD. These include, we propose, comparatively longer telomeres in females TRANS, ovarian hormones, and X chromosome mosaicism.

    Magnitude and time-course of excess mortality during COVID-19 outbreak: population-based empirical evidence from highly impacted provinces in northern Italy

    Authors: Sara Conti; Pietro Ferrara; Giampiero Mazzaglia; Marco I D'Orso; Roberta Ciampichini; Carla Fornari; Fabiana Madotto; Michele Magoni; Giuseppe Sampietro; Andrea Silenzi; Claudio V Sileo; Andrea Zucchi; Giancarlo Cesana; Lamberto Manzoli; Lorenzo G Mantovani

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.10.20150565 Date: 2020-07-11

    Background: The real impact of SARS-CoV-2 on overall mortality remains uncertain and surveillance reports attributed to COVID-19 a limited amount of deaths MESHD during the outbreak. Aim of this study is to assess the excess mortality (EM) during COVID-19 outbreak in highly impacted areas of northern Italy. Methods: We analyzed data on deaths MESHD occurred in the first four months of 2020 in health protection agencies (HPA) of Bergamo and Brescia (Lombardy), building a time-series of daily number of deaths MESHD and predicting the daily standardized mortality ratio (SMR) and cumulative number of excess deaths MESHD (ED) through a Poisson generalized additive model of the observed counts in 2020, using 2019 data as a reference. Results: We estimated 5740 (95% Credible Set (CS): 5552-5936) ED in the HPA of Bergamo and 3703 (95% CS: 3535 - 3877) in Brescia, corresponding to 2.55 (95% CS: 2.50-2.61) and 1.93 (95% CS: 1.89-1.98) folds increase in the number of deaths MESHD. The ED wave started a few days later in Brescia, but the daily estimated SMR peaked at the end of March in both HPAs, roughly two weeks after the introduction of lock-down measures, with significantly higher estimates in Bergamo (9.4, 95% CI: 9.1-9.7). Conclusion: EM was significantly larger than that officially attributed to COVID-19, disclosing its hidden burden likely due to indirect effects on health system. Time-series analyses highlighted the impact of lockdown restrictions, with a lower EM in the HPA where there was a smaller delay between the epidemic outbreak and their enforcement.

    ICU admissions and in-hospital deaths MESHD linked to covid-19 in the Paris region are correlated with previously observed ambient temperature

    Authors: Mehdi Mejdoubi; Xavier Kyndt; Mehdi Djennaoui

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.10.20150508 Date: 2020-07-11

    OBJECTIVE To study the effect of weather on severity indicators of coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (covid-19). DESIGN Ecological study. SETTING Paris region. POPULATION Severely ill patients with covid-19. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Daily covid-19-related intensive care unit (ICU) admission and in-hospital deaths MESHD in the Paris region, and the daily weather characteristics of Paris midtown. RESULTS Daily ICU admissions and in-hospital deaths MESHD were strongly and negatively correlated to ambient temperatures, with a time lag. The highest Pearson correlation coefficients and statistically significant P values were found 8 days before occurrence of ICU admissions and 15 days before deaths MESHD. CONCLUSIONS The study findings show a strong effect of previously observed ambient temperature that has an effect on severity indicators of covid-19.

    No Excess Mortality of COVID-19 in Japan until April, 2020

    Authors: Junko Kurita; Tamie Sugawara; Yoshiyuki Sugishita; Yasushi Ohkusa

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.09.20143164 Date: 2020-07-11

    Background: As of the end of June, 2020, the COVID-19 outbreak exhibited its highest peak on April 3. Nevertheless, no remarkable excess mortality attributable to COVID-19 has been observed. Object: We sought to quantify excess mortality in April using the National Institute of Infectious Diseases MESHD (NIID) model. Method: We applied the NIID model to deaths MESHD of all causes from 1987 up through April, 2020. Results: Results show no significant excess mortality in March or April, 2020, when the COVID-19 outbreak affected Japan most. Discussion and Conclusion: Because changes in application rule of the International Classification of Diseases MESHD in 2017 affected the number of pneumonia MESHD pneumonia HP deaths MESHD drastically, we were unable to use pneumonia MESHD pneumonia HP deaths MESHD to estimate excess mortality. it might be important to continue to monitor excess mortality of COVID-19 carefully after May 2020.

    Pre-diagnostic circulating concentrations of insulin-like growth factor-1 and risk of COVID-19 mortality: results from UK Biobank

    Authors: Xikang Fan; Cheng Yin; Jiayu Wang; Mingjia Yang; Hongxia Ma; Guangfu Jin; Mingyang Song; Zhibin Hu; Hongbing Shen; Dong Hang

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.09.20149369 Date: 2020-07-11

    Background: Coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19) deteriorates suddenly primarily due to excessive inflammatory injury, and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) is implicated in endocrine control of the immune system. However, the effect of IGF-1 levels on COVID-19 prognosis remains unknown. Objective: To investigate the association between circulating IGF-1 concentrations and mortality risk among COVID-19 patients. Design: Prospective analysis. Setting: UK Biobank. Participants: 1425 COVID-19 patients who had pre-diagnostic serum SERO IGF-1 measurements at baseline (2006-2010). Main outcome measures: COVID-19 mortality (available death MESHD data updated to 22 May 2020). Unconditional logistic regression was performed to estimate the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of mortality across the IGF-1 quartiles. Results: Among 1425 COVID-19 patients, 365 deaths MESHD occurred due to COVID-19. Compared to the lowest quartile of IGF-1 concentrations, the highest quartile was associated with a 37% lower risk of mortality (OR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.43-0.93, P-trend=0.03). The association was stronger in women and nonsmokers (both P-interaction=0.01). Conclusions: Higher IGF-1 concentrations are associated with a lower risk of COVID-19 mortality. Further studies are required to determine whether and how targeting IGF-1 pathway might improve COVID-19 prognosis.

    Modeling and Preparedness: The Transmission TRANS Dynamics of COVID-19 Outbreak in Provinces of Ecuador

    Authors: Carlos Enrique Bustamante Orellana; Jordy Jose Cevallos Chavez; Cesar Montalvo; Jeff Sullivan; Edwin Michael; Anuj Mubayi

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.09.20150078 Date: 2020-07-11

    Coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19), a novel infectious disease MESHD first identified in December 2019 in the city of Wuhan of China, is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome MESHD coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease MESHD has become a pandemic in just a few months and spread globally with more than 2.89 million cases and 203,000 deaths MESHD across 185 countries, as of April 26th, 2020. Ecuador has reported one of the highest rates of COVID-19 in Latin America, with more than 10K cases and 500 deaths MESHD in a country of approximately 17 million people. The dynamics of the outbreak is being observed quite different in different provinces of Ecuador with high reported prevalence SERO in some low population density provinces. In this study, we aim to understand variations in outbreaks between provinces and provide assistance in essential preparedness planning in order to respond effectively to ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. The study estimated the critical level of quarantine rate along with corresponding leakage in order to avoid overwhelming the local health care system. The results suggest that provinces with high population density can avoid a large disease MESHD burden provided they initiate early and stricter quarantine measures even under low isolation rate. To best of our knowledge, this study is first from the region to determine which provinces will need much preparation for current outbreak in fall HP and which might need more help.

    A Highly Immunogenic Measles MESHD Virus-based Th1-biased COVID-19 Vaccine

    Authors: Cindy Hoerner; Christoph Schuermann; Arne Auste; Aileen Ebenig; Samada Muraleedharan; Maike Herrmann; Barbara Schnierle; Michael D Muehlebach

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.11.198291 Date: 2020-07-11

    The COVID-19 pandemic is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome MESHD coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and has spread world-wide with millions of cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths MESHD to date. The gravity of the situation mandates accelerated efforts to identify safe and effective vaccines. Here, we generated measles MESHD virus (MeV)-based vaccine candidates expressing the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein (S). Insertion of the full-length S protein gene in two different MeV genomic positions resulted in modulated S protein expression. The variant with lower S protein expression levels was genetically stable and induced high levels of effective Th1-biased antibody SERO and T cell responses in mice after two immunizations. In addition to neutralizing IgG antibody SERO responses in a protective range, multifunctional CD8+ and CD4+ T cell responses with S protein-specific killing activity were detected. These results are highly encouraging and support further development of MeV-based COVID-19 vaccines. Significance: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths MESHD, yet. Therefore, effective vaccine concepts are urgently needed. In search for such a concept, we have analysed a measles MESHD virus-based vaccine candidate targeting SARS-CoV-2. Using this well known, safe vaccine backbone, we demonstrate here induction of functional immune responses in both arms of adaptive immunity with the desired immune bias. Therefore, occurrence of immunopathologies such as antibody SERO-dependent enhancement or enhanced respiratory disease MESHD is rather unlikely. Moreover, the candidate still induces immunity against the measles MESHD, recognized as a looming second menace, when countries are entrapped to stop routine vaccination campaigns in the face of COVID-19. Thus, a bivalent measles MESHD-based COVID-19 vaccine could be the solution for two significant public health threats.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.

    Lockdown measures in response to COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: A rapid study of nine countries

    Authors: Najmul Haider; Abdinasir Yusuf Osman; Audrey Gadzekpo; George O. Akpede; Danny Asogun; Rashid Ansumana; Richard John Lessells; Palwasha Khan; Muzamil Mahdi Abdel Hamid; Dorothy Yeboah-Manu; Leonard Mboera; Elizabeth H Shayo; Blandina Mmbaga; Mark Urassa; David Musoke; Nathan Kapata; Rashida Abbas Ferrand; Pascalina Chanda-Kapata; Florian Stigler; Thomas Czypionka; Richard A Kock; David McCoy

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.09.20149054 Date: 2020-07-11

    Lockdown measures have been introduced worldwide to contain the transmission TRANS of COVID-19. This paper defines the term lockdown and describes the design, timing and implementation of lockdown in nine countries in Sub Saharan Africa: Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. It also discusses the manner in which lockdown is enforced, the need to mitigate the harms of lockdown, and the association between lockdown and the reported number of COVID-19 cases and deaths MESHD. While there are some commonalities in the implementation of lockdown, a more notable finding is the variation in the design, timing and implementation of lockdown measures across the nine countries. We found that the number of reported cases is heavily dependent on the number of tests done, and that testing rates ranged from 9 to 21,261 per million population. The reported number of COVID-19 deaths MESHD per million population also varies, but is generally low when compared to countries in Europe and North America. While lockdown measures may have helped inhibit some community transmission TRANS, the pattern and nature of the epidemic remains unclear. Of concern are signs of lockdown harming health by affecting the functioning of the health system and causing social and economic harms. This paper highlights the need for inter-sectoral and trans-disciplinary research capable of providing a rigorous and holistic assessment of the harms and benefits of lockdown.

    Societal heterogeneity contributes to complex dynamic patterns of the COVID-19 pandemics: insights from a novel Stochastic Heterogeneous Epidemic Model (SHEM)

    Authors: Alexander V Maltsev; Michael Stern

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.10.20150813 Date: 2020-07-11

    After months of COVID-19 quarantine, businesses are reopening their doors and people are reentering society. Within the current COVID-19 data, after a slow-down of infection MESHD, a new peak in active cases is already forming. Here we developed a new Stochastic Heterogeneous Epidemic Model (SHEM) to investigate genesis of complex pandemic patterns with the focus on the role of heterogenous societal structure. Using this model with R0 TRANS of COVID-19, we simulated viral infection MESHD in different scenarios where isolated, communities surround the main cluster of the population. Depending on the parameters of heterogeneity and isolation period, our simulations generated a multimodal growth periods with multiple peaks, an extended plateau, a prolonged tail, or a delayed second wave of infection MESHD. We show that timing and magnitude of infection MESHD for previously unaffected isolated clusters of people, such as suburban neighborhoods, are critical aspects of these patterns. Our model can be applied to communities at any given scale of population described as a fractal-like structure, i.e. from the entire human population, to a country, down to a province or city levels with relevant societal heterogeneity structure. The current COVID-19 pandemic development worldwide and in the US follows a bimodal rise pattern, qualitatively similar to that in our simulations. We interpret our data to indicate that the secondary peak in the pattern is contributed by the states and counties in the US with late infection MESHD surges that are analogous to isolated suburbs in our model. Furthermore, the on-going early reopening, i.e. premature partial reopening in our model, is further accelerating the peak rise. This peak now reaches new heights, forcing many states in the US to reverse their policies and reestablish their quarantine measures. Our results support these timely and effective measures: we show that longer quarantine periods can reduce the number of deaths MESHD and transform the current trend into a substantially delayed (>1 year) second wave. If this scenario becomes a reality, it is important (i) to develop the vaccine and/or effective treatment before the second wave; (ii) to warn people living in suburbs that it is these isolated areas that may hold a false sense of security, but they should continue to take extra care for their public health.

    The emergence of COVID-19 in Indonesia: analysis of predictors of infection MESHD and mortality using independent and clustered data approaches

    Authors: Erlina Burhan; Ari Fahrial Syam; Ahmad Jabir Rahyussalim; Prasenohadi Prasenohadi; Navy G Lolong Wulung; Agus Dwi Susanto; I Gede Ketut Sajinadiyasa; Dewi Puspitorini; Dewi Lestari; Indah Suci Widyahening; Vivi Setiawaty; Dwiana Ocviyanti; Kartika Qonita Putri; Aswin Guntara; Davrina Rianda; Anuraj H Shankar; Rina Agustina

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.10.20147942 Date: 2020-07-11

    Background: Analyses of correlates of SARS-CoV-2 infection MESHD or mortality have usually assessed individual predictors. This study aimed to determine if patterns of combined predictors may better identify risk of infection TRANS risk of infection TRANS infection MESHD and mortality. Methods: For the period of March 2nd to 10th 2020, the first 9 days of the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia, we selected all 18 confirmed cases TRANS, of which 6 died, and all 60 suspected cases, of which 1 died; and 28 putatively negative patients with pneumonia MESHD pneumonia HP and no travel TRANS history. We recorded data for travel TRANS, contact history, symptoms, haematology, comorbidities, and chest x-ray. Hierarchical cluster analyses (HCA) and principal component analyses (PCA) identified cluster and covariance patterns for symptoms or haematology which were analysed with other predictors of infection MESHD or mortality using logistic regression. Results: For univariate analyses, no significant association with infection MESHD was seen for fever MESHD fever HP, cough MESHD cough HP, dyspnoea, headache MESHD headache HP, runny nose, sore throat, gastrointestinal complaints (GIC), or haematology. A PCA symptom component for fever MESHD fever HP, cough MESHD cough HP, and GIC tended to increase risk of infection TRANS risk of infection TRANS infection MESHD (OR 3.41; 95% CI 1.06 - 14; p=0.06), and a haematology component with elevated monocytes decreased risk (OR 0.26; 0.07 - 0.79; 0.027). Multivariate analysis revealed that an HCA cluster of 3-5 symptoms, typically fever MESHD fever HP, cough MESHD cough HP, headache MESHD headache HP, runny nose, sore throat but little dyspnoea and no GIC tended to reduce risk (aOR 0.048; <0.001 - 0.52; 0.056). In univariate analyses for death MESHD, an HCA cluster of cough MESHD cough HP, fever MESHD fever HP and dyspnoea had increased risk (OR 5.75; 1.06 - 31.3, 0.043), but no other individual predictor, cluster or component was associated. Other significant predictors of infection MESHD were age TRANS >= 45, international travel TRANS, contact with COVID-19 patient, and pneumonia MESHD pneumonia HP. Diabetes and history of contact were associated with higher mortality. Conclusions: Cluster groups and co-variance patterns may be stronger correlates of SARS-CoV-2 infection MESHD than individual predictors. Comorbidities may warrant careful attention as would COVID-19 exposure levels.

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MeSH Disease
Human Phenotype
Transmission
Seroprevalence


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