### Overview

MeSH Disease

Death (2360)

Infections (1023)

Disease (922)

Human Phenotype

Pneumonia (200)

Hypertension (135)

Fever (122)

Cough (105)

Transmission

age categories (729)

Transmission (474)

fomite (395)

gender (286)

Seroprevalence
displaying 1301 - 1310 records in total 2378
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### Comparative analyses revealed reduced spread of COVID-19 in malaria MESHD endemic countries

Authors: Azhar Muneer; Kiran Kumari; Manish Tripathi; Rupesh Srivastava; Asif Mohmmed; Sumit Rathore

doi:10.1101/2020.05.11.20097923 Date: 2020-05-14 Source: medRxiv

In late 2019, SARS-CoV-2 ( Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome MESHD Coronavirus 2) infection MESHD started in Hubei province of China and now it has spread like a wildfire in almost all parts of the world except some. WHO named the disease MESHD caused by SARS-CoV-2 as COVID-19 ( CoronaVirus Disease MESHD-2019). It is very intriguing to see a mild trend of infection MESHD in some countries which could be attributed to mitigation efforts, lockdown strategies, health infrastructure, demographics and cultural habits. However, the lower rate of infection MESHD and death MESHD rates in mostly developing countries, which are not placed at higher levels in terms of healthcare facilities, is a very surprising observation. To address this issue, we hypothesize that this lower rate of infection MESHD is majorly been observed in countries which have a higher transmission TRANS/ prevalence SERO of protozoan parasite borne disease MESHD, malaria MESHD. We compared the COVID-19 spread and malaria MESHD endemicity of 108 countries which have shown at least 200 cases of COVID-19 till 18th April 2020. We found that the number of COVID-19 cases per million population correlates negatively with the malaria MESHD endemicity of respective countries. The malaria MESHD free countries not only have higher density of COVID-19 infections MESHD but also the higher case fatality rates as compared to highly malaria MESHD endemic countries. We also postulate that this phenomenon is due to natural immune response against malaria MESHD infection MESHD, which is providing a heterologous protection against the virus. Unfortunately, there is no licensed vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 yet, but this information will be helpful in design of future strategies against fast spreading COVID-19 disease MESHD.

### COVID-19: Easing the coronavirus lockdowns with caution

Authors: Rasheed Omobolaji Alabi; Akpojoto Siemuri; Mohammed Elmusrati

doi:10.1101/2020.05.10.20097295 Date: 2020-05-14 Source: medRxiv

Background: The spread of the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome MESHD coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has reached a global level, creating a pandemic. The government of various countries, their citizens, politicians, and business owners are worried about the unavoidable economic impacts of this pandemic. Therefore, there is an eagerness for the pandemic peaking. Objectives: This study uses an objective approach to emphasize the need to be pragmatic with easing of lockdowns measures worldwide through the forecast of the possible trend of COVID-19. This is necessary to ensure that the enthusiasm about SARS-CoV-2 peaking is properly examined, easing of lockdown is done systematically to avoid second-wave of the pandemic. Methods: We used the Facebook prophet on the World Health Organization data for COVID-19 to forecast the spread of SARS-CoV-2 for the 7th April until 3rd May 2020. The forecast model was further used to forecast the trend of the virus for the 8th until 14th May 2020. We presented the forecast of the confirmed and death MESHD cases. Results: Our findings from the forecast showed an increase in the number of new cases for this period. Therefore, the need for easing the lockdown with caution becomes imperative. Our model showed good performance SERO when compared to the official report from the World Health Organization. The average forecasting accuracy of our model was 79.6%. Conclusion: Although, the global and economic impact of COVID-19 is daunting. However, excessive optimism about easing the lockdown should be appropriately weighed against the risk of underestimating its spread. As seen globally, the risks appeared far from being symmetric. Therefore, the forecasting provided in this study offers an insight into the spread of the virus for effective planning and decision-making in terms of easing the lockdowns in various countries.

### Mathematical model of COVID-19 spread in Turkey and South Africa

Authors: Abdon ATANGANA; Seda IGRET ARAZ

doi:10.1101/2020.05.08.20095588 Date: 2020-05-13 Source: medRxiv

A comprehensive study about the spread of COVID-19 cases in Turkey and South Africa has been presented in this paper . An exhaustive statistical analysis encompassing arithmetic, geometric, harmonic means, standard deviation, skewness, variance, Pearson and Spearman correlation was derived from the data collected from Turkey and South Africa within the period of 11 March 2020 to 3 May 2020 and 05 March and 3 of May respectively. It was observed that in the case of Turkey, a negative Spearman correlation for the number of infected class and a positive Spearman correlation for both the number of deaths MESHD and recoveries were obtained. This implied that the daily infections MESHD could decrease, while the daily deaths MESHD and number of recovered people could increase under current conditions. In the case of South Africa, a negative Spearman correlation for both daily deaths MESHD and daily infected people was obtained, indicating that these numbers may decrease if the current conditions are maintained. The utilization of a statistical technique predicted the daily number of infected, recovered and dead people for each country; and three results were obtained for Turkey, namely an upper boundary, a prediction from current situation and lower boundary. The prediction shows that Turkey may register in the near future approximately more than 6000 new infections MESHD in a day as worst case scenario; and less than 300 cases in the perfect scenario. However, the country could register in the near future a daily number of 27000 people recovered from COVID-19 in the perfect scenario; and less than 5000 people in a worst scenario. Moreover, Turkey in a worst-case scenario could record a high number of approximately 200 deaths MESHD per day; and less than 150 deaths MESHD in a perfect scenario. Similarly, in the case of South Africa, the prediction results show that in the near future the country could register about 500 new infected cases daily and more than 25 deaths MESHD in the worst scenario; while in a perfect scenario less than 50 new infected and zero death MESHD cases could be recorded. The histograms of the daily number of newly infected, recovered and death MESHD showed a sign of lognormal and normal distribution, which is presented using the Bell curving method parameters estimation. A new mathematical model COVID-19 comprised of nine classes was suggested; of which a formula of the reproductive number TRANS, well-poseness of the solutions and the stability analysis were presented in details. The suggested model was further extended to the scope of nonlocal operators for each case; whereby the Atangana-Seda numerical method was used to provide numerical solutions, and simulations were performed for different non-integer numbers. Additionally, sections devoted to control optimal and others dedicated to compare cases between Turkey and South Africa with the aim to comprehend why there are less numbers of deaths MESHD and infected people in South Africa than Turkey were presented in details.

### Effects of pre-existing morbidities on occurrence of death MESHD among COVID-19 disease MESHD patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Authors: Mostaured Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Md. Golam Mustagir; Juwel Rana; Md Saiful Islam; Md Iqbal Kabir

doi:10.1101/2020.05.08.20095968 Date: 2020-05-13 Source: medRxiv

Abstract Background: Coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19), the most hectic pandemic of the era, is increasing exponentially and taking thousands of lives worldwide. This study aimed to assess the prevalence SERO of pre-existing morbidities among COVID-19 infected patients and their mortality risks against each type of pre-existing morbidity category. Methods: To conduct this systematic review and meta-analysis, Medline, Web of Science, Scopus, and CINAHL databases were searched using specified relavent keywords. Further searches were conducted using the reference list of the selected studies, renowned pre-print servers (e.g., medRxiv, bioRixv, SSRN), and relevant journal websites. Studies written in the English language included if those were conducted among COVID-19 patients with and without comorbidities and presented survivor vs. non-survivor counts or hazard/odds of deaths MESHD or survivors against types of pre-existing morbidities. Comorbidities reported in the selected studies were grouped into eight categories. The pooled likelihoods of deaths MESHD in each category were estimated using a fixed or random-effect model, based on the heterogeneity assessment. Publication bias was assessed by visual inspection of the funnel plot asymmetry and Eggers regression test. Trim and Fill method was used if there any publication bias was found. Results: A total of 42 studies included in this study comprised of 39,398 samples. The most common pre-existing morbidities in COVID-19 infected patients were hypertension MESHD hypertension HP (36.5%), cardiovascular disease MESHD (11.9%), and diabetes (22.0%). The higher likelihood of deaths MESHD was found among COVID-19 patients who had pre-existing cardiovascular diseases MESHD (OR: 3.32, 95% CI: 2.79-3.95), immune and metabolic disorders (OR: 2.39, 95% CI: 2.00-2.85), respiratory diseases MESHD (OR: 2.02, 95% CI: 1.80-2.26), cerebrovascular diseases MESHD (OR: 4.12, 95% CI: 3.04-5.58), any types of cancers (OR: 2.22, 95% CI: 1.63-3.03), renal (OR: 3.02, 95% CI: 2.60-3.52), and liver diseases MESHD (OR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.21-1.71). Conclusions: This study provides evidence of a higher likelihood of deaths MESHD among COVID-19 patients against morbidity categories. These findings could potentially help healthcare providers to sort out the most endangered COVID-19 patients by comorbidities, take precautionary measures during hospitalization, assess susceptibility to death MESHD, and prioritize their treatment, which could potentially reduce the number of fatalities in COVID-19.

### Lower State COVID-19 Deaths MESHD and Cases with Earlier School Closure in the U.S.

Authors: Emily Rauscher

doi:10.1101/2020.05.09.20096594 Date: 2020-05-13 Source: medRxiv

This study quantifies the relationship between school closure timing and COVID-19 deaths MESHD and cases in the general population in all U.S. states. COVID-19 has higher symptomatic infection MESHD rates among the elderly TRANS, suggesting school closures could be unrelated to transmission TRANS. However, predicting daily cumulative COVID-19 deaths MESHD by state, earlier school closure is related to fewer deaths MESHD per capita and slower growth in deaths MESHD per capita. Results are similar for COVID-19 cases per capita.

### Regional analysis of COVID-19 in France from fit of hospital data with different evolutionary models

Authors: Gary A. Mamon

id:2005.06552v4 Date: 2020-05-13 Source: arXiv

The SIR evolutionary model predicts too sharp a decrease of the fractions of people infected with COVID-19 in France after the start of the national lockdown, compared to what is observed. I fit the daily hospital data: arrivals in regular and critical care units, releases and deaths MESHD, using extended SEIR models. These involve ratios of evolutionary timescales to branching fractions, assumed uniform throughout a country, and the basic reproduction number TRANS, $R_0 TRANS$, before and during the national lockdown, for each region of France. The joint-region Bayesian analysis allows precise evaluations of the time/fraction ratios and pre-hospitalized fractions. The hospital data are well fit by the models, except the arrivals in critical care, which decrease faster than predicted, indicating better treatment over time. Averaged over France, the analysis yields $R_0 TRANS$= 3.4$\pm$0.1 before the lockdown and 0.65$\pm$0.04 (90% c.l.) during the lockdown, with small regional variations. On 11 May 2020, the Infection MESHD Fatality Rate in France was 4 $\pm$1% (90% c.l.), while the Feverish vastly outnumber the Asymptomatic TRANS, contrary to the early phases. Without the lockdown nor social distancing, over 2 million deaths MESHD from COVID-19 would have occurred throughout France, while a lockdown that would have been enforced 10 days earlier would have led to less than 1000 deaths MESHD. The fraction of immunized people reached a plateau below 1% throughout France (3% in Paris) by late April 2020 (95% c.l.), suggesting a lack of herd immunity. The widespread availability of face masks on 11 May, when the lockdown was partially lifted, should keep $R_0 TRANS$ below unity if at least 46% of the population wear them outside their home. Otherwise, without enhanced other social distancing, a second wave is inevitable and cause the number of deaths MESHD to triple between early May and October (if $R_0 TRANS$=1.2) or even late June (if $R_0 TRANS$=2).

### Monitoring the propagation of COVID-19-pandemic first waves

Authors: William Knafo

doi:10.1101/2020.05.09.20096768 Date: 2020-05-13 Source: medRxiv

A phenomenological approach is proposed to monitor the propagation of the COVID-19-pandemic first waves. A large set of data collected at a worldwide scale during the first months of 2020 is compiled into series of semi-logarithmic plots, for a selection of thirty-two countries from the five continents. Three regimes are identified in the propagation of an epidemic wave: a pre-epidemic regime 1, an exponential-growth regime 2, and a resorption regime 3. A two-parameters scaling of the first-wave death MESHD variation reported in China is used to fit those reported in other countries. Comparison is made between the propagation of the pandemic in different countries, which are classified in four groups, from group A where the pandemic first waves were contained efficiently, to group D where the pandemic first waves widely spread. Group A is mainly composed of Asian countries, where fast and efficient measures have been applied. Group D is composed of Western-Europe countries and the United States of America, where late decisions and confused political communication (pandemic seriousness, protection masks, herd immunity etc.) led to significant death MESHD tolls. The threat of large resurging epidemic waves after a hasty lockdown lift is discussed, in particular for the countries from group D, where the number of contagious people remained high in the beginning of May 2020. The situation is opposite in Asian countries from group A, where the number of contagious people was successfully maintained to a low level. In particular, the results obtained by Hong Kong and South Korea are highlighted, and the measures taken there are presented as virtuous examples that other countries may follow.

### Identifying and quantifying robust risk factors for mortality in critically ill patients with COVID-19 using quantile regression

Authors: Zeqiang Linli; Yinyin Chen; Shuixia Guo

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-28676/v1 Date: 2020-05-13 Source: ResearchSquare

Objective: Many laboratory indicators form a skewed distribution with outliers, for which robust methods are needed to precisely determine and quantify fatality risk factors.Method: A total of 192 critically ill patients (142 were discharged and 50 died in the hospital) with COVID-19 were included in the sample. Quantile regression was used to determine discrepant laboratory indexes between survivors and non-survivors and quantile shift (QS) was used to quantify the difference. Logistic regression was then used to calculate the odds ratio (OR) and the predictive power of death MESHD for each risk indicator. Results: After adjusting for multiple comparisons and controlling numerous confounders, quantile regression revealed that the laboratory indexes of non-survivors were significantly higher in C-reactive protein (CRP; QS = 0.835, p <0.001), white blood SERO cell counts (WBC; QS = 0.743, p <0.001), glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase (AST; QS = 0.735, p <0.001), blood SERO glucose (BG; QS = 0.608, p = 0.059), fibrin degradation product (FDP; QS = 0.730, p = 0.080), and partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PCO2), and lower in oxygen saturation (SO2; QS = 0.312, p <0.001), calcium (Ca2+; QS = 0.306, p = 0.073), and PH. Most of these abnormalities were associated with increased fatality risk and can predict the probability of death MESHD, especially, CRP which is the most prominent index with an odds ratio of 205.97 and predictive accuracy of 93.2%.Conclusion: Laboratory indexes provided reliable information on mortality in critically ill patients, which might help improve clinical prediction and treatment at an early stage.

### COVID-19 Vaccines:A Race Against Time in the Middle of Death MESHD and Devastation!

Authors: Mohammad Khuroo; Mohammad Khuroo; Mehnaaz Khuroo; Ahmad Sofi; Naira Khuroo

id:10.20944/preprints202005.0223.v1 Date: 2020-05-13 Source: preprints.org

Abstract. The COVID-19 has turned in to a global human tragedy and economic devastation. Governments have implemented lockdown measures, blocked international travel TRANS, and enforced other public containment measures to mitigate the virus morbidity and mortality. As of today, no drug has the power to fight the infection MESHD and bring normalcy to the utter chaos. This leaves us with only one choice namely an effective and safe vaccine that shall be manufactured as soon as possible and available to all countries and populations affected by the pandemic at an affordable price. There has been an unprecedented fast track path taken in R&D by the World community for developing an effective and safe vaccine. Platform technology has been exploited to develop candidate vaccines in a matter of days to weeks and as of now, 108 such vaccines are available. Six of these vaccines have entered clinical trials. As clinical trials are ‘rate-limiting’ and ‘time-consuming’, many innovative methods are in practice for a fast track. These include parallel phase I-II trials and obtaining efficacy data from phase IIb trials. Human ‘challenge experiments’ to confirm efficacy in humans is under serious consideration. The availability of the COVID-19 vaccine has become a race against time in the middle of death MESHD and devastation. There is an atmosphere of tremendous hype around the COVID-19 vaccine and developers are using every moment to make claims, which remain unverified. However, concerns are raised about a rush to deploy a COVID-19 vaccine. Applying ‘Quick fix’ and ‘short cuts’ can lead to errors with disastrous consequences.

### Epidemiological, socio-demographic and clinical features of the early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ecuador

Authors: Esteban Ortiz-Prado; katherine Simbana-Rivera; Ana Maria Diaz; Alejandra Barreto; Carla Moyano; Vanessa Arcos; Eduardo Vasconez-Gonzalez; Clara Paz; Fernanda Simbana-Guaycha; Martin Molestina-Luzuriaga; Raul Fernandez-Naranjo; javier Feijoo; Aquiles Rodrigo Henriquez; Lila Adana; Andres Lopez-Cortes Sr.; Isabel Fletcher; Rachel Lowe; Lenin Gomez-Barreno

doi:10.1101/2020.05.08.20095943 Date: 2020-05-13 Source: medRxiv

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread rapidly around the globe. Nevertheless, there is limited information describing the characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients in Latin America. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 9,468 confirmed COVID-19 cases reported in Ecuador. We calculated overall incidence, mortality, case fatality rates, disability adjusted life years, attack and crude mortality rates, as well as relative risk and relative odds of death MESHD, adjusted for age TRANS, sex and presence of comorbidities. Results: A total of 9,468 positive COVID-19 cases and 474 deaths MESHD were included in the analysis. Men accounted for 55.4% (n = 5, 247) of cases and women for 44.6% (n = 4, 221). We found the presence of comorbidities, being male TRANS and older than 65 years were important determinants of mortality. Coastal regions were most affected by COVID-19, with higher mortality rates than the highlands. Fatigue MESHD Fatigue HP was reported in 53.2% of the patients, followed by headache MESHD headache HP (43%), dry cough MESHD cough HP (41.7%), ageusia MESHD (37.1%) and anosmia HP (36.1%). Conclusion: We present the first analysis of the burden of COVID-19 in Ecuador. Our findings show that men are at higher risk of dying from COVID-19 than women, and risk increases with age TRANS and the presence of comorbidities. We also found that blue-collar workers and the unemployed are at greater risk of dying. These early observations offer clinical insights for the medical community to help improve patient care and for public health officials to strengthen Ecuador s response to the outbreak. Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Ecuador; Epidemiology; Latin America

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