Corpus overview


MeSH Disease

Human Phenotype

Pneumonia (199)

Hypertension (133)

Fever (121)

Cough (103)

Respiratory distress (85)


    displaying 21 - 30 records in total 2351
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    Correlation between daily infections MESHD and fatality rate due to Covid-19 in Germany

    Authors: Dieter Mergel

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.03.20167304 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    The daily Covid-19 fatality rate is modelled with a trend line based on nominal day-to-day reproduction rates and a cosine to take account of weekly fluctuations. The fatality trajectory represented by this trend line can be projected from the number of daily infections MESHD by assuming a time lapse between symptom onset TRANS and death MESHD between 17 and 19 days and a nominal time-dependent fatality rate. The time trajectory of this fatality rate suggests a change of the infection MESHD dynamics at April 3, with an increase from 2.5% to 6% within 20 days perhaps indicating spread of infection MESHD to more vulnerable people. Later in summer, the nominal fatality rate decreases down to 1% in mid-July raising the question whether Covid-19 is intrinsically less lethal in summer. Although the time trajectories of infections MESHD and fatality are pronouncedly different, the reproduction rates obtained therefrom are similar indicating that the infection MESHD dynamics may reasonably well be deduced from the potentially biased reported infection MESHD rate if it is biased consistently, i.e. the same way, over an extended period of time. The administrative measures to contain the pandemic seem not to have an immediate effect on the infection MESHD dynamics but well the ease of restrictions. An effect of mask wearing on decreasing lethality cannot be excluded.

    Waves of COVID-19 pandemic. Detection and SIR simulations

    Authors: Igor Nesteruk

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.03.20167098 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    Background. Unfortunately, the COVID-19 pandemic is still far from stabilizing. Of particular concern is the sharp increase in the number of diseases MESHD in June-July 2020. The causes and consequences of this sharp increase in the number of cases are still waiting for their researchers, but there is already an urgent need to assess the possible duration of the pandemic, the expected number of patients and deaths MESHD. The resumption of international passenger traffic needs the information for deciding which countries' citizens are welcome guests. Correct simulation of the infectious disease MESHD dynamics needs complicated mathematical models and many efforts for unknown parameters identification. Constant changes in the pandemic conditions (in particular, the peculiarities of quarantine and its violation, situations with testing and isolation of patients) cause various epidemic waves, lead to changes in the parameter values of the mathematical models. Objective. In this article, pandemic waves in Ukraine and in the world will be detected, calculated and discussed. The estimations for hidden periods, epidemic durations and final numbers of cases will be presented. The probabilities of meeting a person spreading the infection MESHD and reproduction numbers TRANS will be calculated for different countries and regions. Methods. We propose a simple method for the epidemic waves detection based on the differentiation of the smoothed number of cases. We use the known SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model for the dynamics of the epidemic waves. The known exact solution of the SIR differential equations and statistical approach were modified and used. Results. The optimal values of the SIR model parameters were identified for four waves of pandemic dynamics in Ukraine and five waves in the world. The number of cases and the number of patients spreading the infection MESHD versus time were calculated. In particular, the pandemic probably began in August 2019. If current trends continue, the end of the pandemic should be expected no earlier than in March 2021 both in Ukraine and in the world, the global number of cases will exceed 20 million. The probabilities of meeting a person spreading the infection MESHD and reproduction numbers TRANS were calculated for different countries and regions. Conclusions. The SIR model and statistical approach to the parameter identification are helpful to make some reliable estimations of the epidemic waves. The number of persons spreading the infection MESHD versus time was calculated during all the epidemic waves. The obtained information will be useful to regulate the quarantine activities, to predict the medical and economic consequences of the pandemic and to decide which countries' citizens are welcome guests.

    A longitudinal survey for genome-based identification of SARS-CoV-2 in sewage water in selected lockdown areas of Lahore city, Pakistan; a potential approach for future smart lockdown strategy

    Authors: Tahir Yaqub; Muhammad Nawaz; Muhammad Zubair Shabbir; Muhammad Asad Ali; Imran Altaf; Sohail Raza; Muhammad Abu Bakr Shabbir; Muhammad Adnan Ashraf; Syed Zahid Aziz; Sohail Qadir Cheema; Muhammad Bilal Shah; Sohail Hassan; Saira Rafique; Nageen Sardar; Adnan Mehmood; Muhammad Waqar Aziz; Sehar Fazal; Nadir Khan; Muhammad Tahir Khan; Muhammad Moavia Attique; Ali Asif; Muhammad Anwar; Nabeel Ahmad Awan; Muhammad Usman Younis; Muhammad Ajmal Bhatti; Zarfishan Tahir; Nadia Mukhtar; Huda Sarwar; Maaz Sohail Rana

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.31.20165126 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    Severe acute respiratory syndrome MESHD coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections MESHD has affected more than 15 million people and, as of 22 July 2019, caused deaths MESHD of more than 0.6 million individuals globally. With the excretion of SARS-CoV-2 in the stool of symptomatic and asymptomatic TRANS COVID-19 patients, its genome detection in the sewage water can be used as a powerful epidemiological tool to predict the number of positive cases in a population. This study was conducted to detect SARS-CoV-2 genome in sewage water during the lockdown. Sewage samples, from 28 pre-selected sites, were collected on alternate days from 13-25 July, 2020 from two selected areas [Johar Town (n = 05) and Township (n = 23)], where smart lockdown were implemented by the government authorities on 9th July, 2020. Genomic RNA was extracted and the SARS-CoV-2 was detected and quantified using commercially available kit through Real-Time PCR. Out of 28, sixteen samples were positive on day one while 19, 17, 23, 17, 05 and 09 samples were positive on day 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, and 13, respectively. These results indicate the decreasing viral copy load with the passage of time however few sites did not followed a clear pattern indicating the complexities in sewage water based surveillance i.e time of sampling. Hourly sampling from two sites for 24 hours also revealed the impact of time sampling time on detection of SARS-CoV-2 genome in sewage pipelines and lift/disposal stations. Results of current study indicate a possible role of sewage-based COVID-19 surveillance in monitoring and execution of smart lockdowns.

    Physical activity, BMI and COVID-19: an observational and Mendelian randomisation study

    Authors: Xiaomeng Zhang; Xue Li; Ziwen Sun; Yazhou He; Wei Xu; Harry Campbell; Malcolm G Dunlop; Maria Timofeeva; Evropi Theodoratou

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.01.20166405 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    Physical activity (PA) is known to be a protective lifestyle factor against several non- communicable diseases MESHD while its impact on infectious diseases MESHD, including Coronavirus Disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19) is not as clear. We performed univariate and multivariate logistic regression to identify associations between body mass index (BMI) and both objectively and subjectively measured PA collected prospectively and COVID-19 related outcomes (Overall COVID-19, inpatient COVID-19, outpatient COVID-19, and COVID-19 death MESHD) in the UK Biobank (UKBB) cohort. Subsequently, we tested causality by using two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis. In the multivariable model, the increased acceleration vector magnitude PA (AMPA) was associated with a decreased probability of overall and outpatient COVID-19. No association was found between self-reported moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) or BMI and COVID-19 related outcomes. Although no causal association was found by MR analyses, this may be due to limited power and we conclude policies to encourage and facilitate exercise at a population level during the pandemic should be considered.

    COVID-19 pandemic in Djibouti: epidemiology and the response strategy followed to contain the virus during the first two months, 17 March to 16 May 2020

    Authors: Mohamed Elhakim; Saleh Banoita Tourab; Ahmed Zouiten

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.03.20167692 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    Background: First cases of COVID-19 were reported from Wuhan, China, in December 2019, and it progressed rapidly. On 30 January, WHO declared the new disease MESHD as a PHEIC, then as a Pandemic on 11 March. By mid-March, the virus spread widely; Djibouti was not spared and was hit by the pandemic with the first case detected on 17 March. Djibouti worked with WHO and other partners to develop a preparedness and response plan, and implemented a series of intervention measures. MoH together with its civilian and military partners, closely followed WHO recommended strategy based on four pillars: testing, isolating, early case management, and contact tracing TRANS. From 17 March to 16 May, Djibouti performed the highest per capita tests in Africa and isolated, treated and traced the contacts TRANS of each positive case, which allowed for a rapid control of the epidemic. Methods: COVID-19 data included in this study was collected through MoH Djibouti during the period from 17 March to 16 May 2020. Results: A total of 1,401 confirmed cases TRANS of COVID-19 were included in the study with 4 related deaths MESHD (CFR: 0.3%) and an attack rate TRANS of 0.15%. Males TRANS represented (68.4%) of the cases, with the age group TRANS 31-45 years old (34.2%) as the most affected. Djibouti conducted 17,532 tests, and was considered as a champion for COVID-19 testing in Africa with 18.2 tests per 1000 habitant. All positive cases were isolated, treated and had their contacts traced TRANS, which led to early and proactive diagnosis of cases and in turn yielded up to 95-98% asymptomatic TRANS cases. Recoveries reached 69% of the infected cases with R0 TRANS (0.91). The virus was detected in 4 regions in the country, with the highest percentage in the capital (83%). Conclusion: Djibouti responded to COVID-19 pandemic following an efficient and effective strategy, using a strong collaboration between civilian and military health assets that increased the response capacities of the country. Partnership, coordination, solidarity, proactivity and commitment were the pillars to confront COVID-19 pandemic.

    The association between COVID-19-imposed lockdowns and online searches for toothache MESHD using Google Trends

    Authors: Ahmad Sofi-Mahmudi; Erfan Shamsoddin; Peyman Ghasemi; Mona Nasser; Bita Mesgarpour

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.01.20157065 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    Objective To assess the association between the lockdowns due to COVID-19 and global online searches for toothache MESHD using Google Trends (GT). Methods We investigated GT online searches for the search terms toothache MESHD and tooth pain MESHD pain HP, within the past five years. The time frame for data gathering was considered as the initiation and end dates of national/regional lockdowns in each country. Relative search volumes (RSVs) for online Google Search queries in 2019 was considered as the control. We analysed data after normalising based on the Internet penetration rate. We used one-way ANOVA to identify statistical difference for RSVs between 2020 and 2016-2019 for each country. A linear regression model was used to assess whether there is a correlation between RSVs in 2020 and gross domestic production, COVID-19 deaths MESHD, dentists' density, YLDs of oral conditions, Internet access, lockdown duration, Education Index, and dental expenditure per capita. Results The results of worldwide RSVs for toothache MESHD and tooth pain MESHD pain HP also showed significantly higher values in 2020 compared to the previous four years. Of 23 included countries in our study, 16 showed significantly increased RSVs during the lockdown period compared to the same periods in the past four years. There was a statistically significant relationship between difference of RSVs means in 2020 and in 2016-2019 combined with percent of urban residency (B=-1.82; 95% CI: (-3.38, -0.26); p=0.026) and dental expenditure per capita (B=-0.42; 95% CI: (-0.80, -0.05); p=0.031) (R2=0.66). Conclusion Generally, the interest in toothache MESHD and tooth pain MESHD pain HP has significantly increased in 2020 compared to the last four years. This could implicitly reinforce the importance of dental care, as urgent medical care worldwide. Governments' expenditure on oral healthcare and the rate of urban residency, could be mentioned as important factors to direct general populations' online care-seeking behaviour with regard to dental pain MESHD pain HP.

    Epidemiological characteristics of SARS-COV-2 in Myanmar

    Authors: Aung Min Thway; Htun Tayza; Tun Tun Win; Ye Minn Tun; Moe Myint Aung; Yan Naung Win; Kyaw M Tun

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.02.20166504 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    Coronavirus disease MESHD (COVID-19) is an infectious disease MESHD caused by a newly discovered severe acute respiratory syndrome MESHD coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In Myanmar, first COVID-19 reported cases were identified on 23rd March 2020. There were 336 reported confirmed cases TRANS, 261 recovered and 6 deaths MESHD through 13th July 2020. The study was a retrospective case series and all COVID-19 confirmed cases TRANS from 23rd March to 13th July 2020 were included. The data series of COVID-19 cases were extracted from the daily official reports of the Ministry of Health and Sports (MOHS), Myanmar and Centers for Disease MESHD Control and Prevention (CDC), Myanmar. Among 336 confirmed cases TRANS, there were 169 cases with reported transmission TRANS events. The median serial interval TRANS was 4 days (IQR 3, 2-5) with the range of 0 - 26 days. The mean of the reproduction number TRANS was 1.44 with (95% CI = 1.30-1.60) by exponential growth method and 1.32 with (95% CI = 0.98-1.73) confident interval by maximum likelihood method. This study outlined the epidemiological characteristics and epidemic parameters of COVID-19 in Myanmar. The estimation parameters in this study can be comparable with other studies and variability of these parameters can be considered when implementing disease MESHD control strategy in Myanmar.

    Paradoxical Case Fatality Rate dichotomy of Covid-19 among rich and poor nations points to the hygiene hypothesis.

    Authors: Bithika Chatterjee; Rajeeva Laxman Karandikar; Shekhar C. Mande

    doi:10.1101/2020.07.31.20165696 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    In the first six months of its deadly spread across the world, the Covid-19 incidence has exhibited interesting dichotomy between the rich and the poor countries. Surprisingly, the incidence and the Case Fatality Rate has been much higher in the richer countries compared with the poorer countries. However, the reasons behind this dichotomy have not been explained based on data or evidence, although some of the factors for the susceptibility of populations to SARS-CoV-2 infections MESHD have been proposed. We have taken into consideration all publicly available data and mined for the possible explanations in order to understand the reasons for this phenomenon. The data included many parameters including demography of nations, prevalence SERO of communicable and non- communicable diseases MESHD, sanitation parameters etc. Results of our analyses suggest that demography, improved sanitation and hygiene, and higher incidence of autoimmune disorders as the most plausible factors to explain higher death MESHD rates in the richer countries Thus, the much debated hygiene hypothesis appears to lend credence to the Case Fatality Rate dichotomy between the rich and the poor countries.

    SARS-CoV-2 antigens expressed in plants detect antibody SERO responses in COVID-19 patients

    Authors: Mohau S Makatsa; Marius B Tincho; Jerome M Wendoh; Sherazaan D Ismail; Rofhiwa Nesamari; Francisco Pera; Scott de Beer; Anura David; Sarika Jugwanth; Maemu P Gededzha; Nakampe Mampeule; Ian Sanne; Wendy Stevens; Lesley Scott; Jonathan Blackburn; Elizabeth S Mayne; Roanne S Keeton; Wendy A Burgers

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.04.20167940 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    Background: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has swept the world and poses a significant global threat to lives and livelihoods, with over 16 million confirmed cases TRANS and at least 650 000 deaths MESHD from COVID-19 in the first 7 months of the pandemic. Developing tools to measure seroprevalence SERO and understand protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is a priority. We aimed to develop a serological assay SERO using plant-derived recombinant viral proteins, which represent important tools in less-resourced settings. Methods: We established an indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay SERO ( ELISA SERO) using the S1 and receptor-binding domain (RBD) portions of the spike protein from SARS-CoV-2, expressed in Nicotiana benthamiana. We measured antibody SERO responses in sera from South African patients (n=77) who had tested positive by PCR for SARS-CoV-2. Samples were taken a median of six weeks after the diagnosis, and the majority of participants had mild and moderate COVID-19 disease MESHD. In addition, we tested the reactivity of pre-pandemic plasma SERO (n=58) and compared the performance SERO of our in-house ELISA SERO with a commercial assay. We also determined whether our assay could detect SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG and IgA in saliva. Results: We demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2-specific immunoglobulins are readily detectable using recombinant plant-derived viral proteins, in patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR. Reactivity to S1 and RBD was detected in 51 (66%) and 48 (62%) of participants, respectively. Notably, we detected 100% of samples identified as having S1-specific antibodies SERO by a validated, high sensitivity SERO commercial ELISA SERO, and OD values were strongly and significantly correlated between the two assays. For the pre-pandemic plasma SERO, 1/58 (1.7%) of samples were positive, indicating a high specificity for SARS-CoV-2 in our ELISA SERO. SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG correlated significantly with IgA and IgM responses. Endpoint titers of S1- and RBD-specific immunoglobulins ranged from 1:50 to 1:3200. S1-specific IgG and IgA were found in saliva samples from convalescent volunteers. Conclusions: We demonstrate that recombinant SARS-CoV-2 proteins produced in plants enable robust detection of SARS-CoV-2 humoral responses. This assay can be used for seroepidemiological studies and to measure the strength and durability of antibody SERO responses to SARS-CoV-2 in infected patients in our setting.

    Review of Forecasting Models for Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic in India during Country-wise Lockdown

    Authors: Abhinav Gola; Ravi Kumar Arya; Animesh; Ravi Dugh

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.03.20167254 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    COVID-19 is spreading widely across the globe right now. Majority of the countries are relying on models and studies such as stochastic simulations, AceMod model, neural networks-based models, exponential growth model,Weibull distribution model, and so on to forecast the number of COVID-19 cases in the coming months. The objective on utilizing these models is to ensure that strict measures can be enacted to contain the virus spread and also predict the resources required to deal with the pandemic as the disease MESHD disease spreads TRANS spreads. In the past few months, several models were used to predict the infection MESHD rate for COVID-19. These models predicted the infection MESHD rates, recovery rate or death MESHD rates for the COVID-19 patients. All these different models took different approaches and different scenarios to predict the future rates. Now, that we know the real cases, we can check how accurate these models were. Some of these models were able to predict the near future quite close to the reality but most of them went astray. In this study, we review major forecasting models that were used in the context of India during country-wise lockdown and compare them. From these comparisons, we can see that while the advanced warning can be helpful in mitigating and preparing for an impending or ongoing epidemic, effects can be catastrophic if poorly fitting models are used for predictions.

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MeSH Disease
Human Phenotype

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