Corpus overview


Overview

MeSH Disease

Human Phenotype

Pneumonia (127)

Fever (120)

Cough (95)

Fatigue (30)

Hypertension (21)


Transmission

Seroprevalence
    displaying 1141 - 1150 records in total 1304
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    Analysis of Epidemic Situation of New Coronavirus Infection at Home and Abroad Based on Rescaled Range (R/S) Method

    Authors: Xiaofeng Ji; Zhou Tang; Kejian Wang; Xianbin Li; Houqiang Li

    doi:10.1101/2020.03.15.20036756 Date: 2020-03-20 Source: medRxiv

    1Summary 1.1 Background The outbreak of the new coronavirus infection broke MESHD out in Wuhan City, Hubei Province in December 2019, and has spread to 97 countries and regions around the world. Apart from China, there are currently three other severely affected areas, namely Italy, South Korea, and Iran. This poses a huge threat to China's and even global public health security, challenges scientific research work such as disease surveillance and tracking, clinical treatment, and vaccine development, and it also brings huge uncertainty to the global economy. As of March 11, 2020, the epidemic situation in China is nearing its end, but the epidemic situation abroad is in the outbreak period. Italy has even taken measures to close the city nationwide, with a total of 118,020 cases of infection MESHD worldwide. 1.2 Method This article selects the data of newly confirmed cases TRANS of COVID-19 at home and abroad as the data sample. Among them: the data of newly confirmed cases TRANS abroad is represented by Italy, and the span is from February 13 to March 10. The data of newly confirmed cases TRANS at home are divided into two parts: Hubei Province and other provinces except Hubei Province, spanning from January 23 to March 3, and with February 12 as the cutting point, it is divided into two periods, the growth period and the recession period. The rescaled range (R / S) analysis method and the dimensionless fractal Hurst exponent are used to measure the correlation of time series to determine whether the time series conforms to the fractal Brownian motion, that is, a biased random process. Contrast analysis of the meaning of H value in different stages and different overall H values in the same stage. 1.3 Results Based on R / S analysis and calculated Hurst value of newly confirmed cases TRANS in Hubei and non-Hubei provinces, it was found that the H value of Hubei Province in the first stage was 0.574, which is greater than 0.5, indicating that the future time series has a positive correlation and Fractal characteristics; The H value in the second stage is 1.368, which is greater than 1, which indicates that the future epidemic situation is completely preventable and controllable, and the second stage has a downward trend characteristic, which indicates that there is a high probability that the future time series will decline. The H values of the first and second stages of non-Hubei Province are 0.223 and 0.387, respectively, which are both less than 0.5, indicating that the time series of confirmed cases TRANS in the future is likely to return to historical points, and the H value in the second stage is greater than that in the first stage, indicating that the time series of confirmed cases TRANS in the second stage is more long-term memory than the time series of confirmed cases TRANS in the first stage. The daily absolute number of newly confirmed cases TRANS in Italy was converted to the daily growth rate of confirmed cases TRANS to eliminate the volatility of the data. The H value was 1.853, which was greater than 1, indicating that the time series of future confirmed cases TRANS is similar to the trend of historical changes. The daily rate of change in cases will continue to rise. 1.4 Conclusion According to the different interpretation of the H value obtained by the R / S analysis method, hierarchical isolation measures are adopted accordingly. When the H value is greater than 0.5, it indicates that the development of the epidemic situation in the area has more long-term memory, that is, when the number of confirmed cases TRANS in the past increases rapidly, the probability of the time series of confirmed cases TRANS in the future will continue the historical trend. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate strict anti-epidemic measures in accordance with the actual conditions of various countries, to detect, isolate, and treat early to reduce the base of infectious agents.

    Spatial Visualization of Cluster-Specific COVID-19 Transmission TRANS Network in South Korea During the Early Epidemic Phase

    Authors: James Yeongjun Park

    doi:10.1101/2020.03.18.20038638 Date: 2020-03-20 Source: medRxiv

    Background Coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19) has been rapidly spreading throughout China and other countries including South Korea. As of March 12, 2020, a total number of 7,869 cases and 66 deaths had been documented in South Korea. Although the first confirmed case TRANS in South Korea was identified on January 20, 2020, the number of confirmed cases TRANS showed a rapid growth on February 19, 2020 with a total number of 1,261 cases with 12 deaths based on the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC). Method Using the data of confirmed cases TRANS of COVID-19 in South Korea that are publicly available from the KCDC, this paper aims to create spatial visualizations of COVID-19 transmission TRANS between January 20, 2020 and February 19, 2020. Results Using spatial visualization, this paper identified two early transmission TRANS clusters in South Korea (Daegu cluster and capital area cluster). Using a degree-weighted centrality measure, this paper proposes potential super-spreaders of the virus in the visualized clusters. Conclusion Compared to various epidemiological measures such as the basic reproduction number TRANS, spatial visualizations of the cluster-specific transmission TRANS networks and the proposed centrality measure may be more useful to characterize super-spreaders and the spread of the virus especially in the early epidemic phase.

    Investigating the Impact of Asymptomatic TRANS Carriers TRANS on COVID-19 Transmission TRANS

    Authors: Jacob B Aguilar; Jeremy Samuel Faust; Lauren M. Westafer; Juan B. Gutierrez

    doi:10.1101/2020.03.18.20037994 Date: 2020-03-20 Source: medRxiv

    Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a novel human respiratory disease MESHD caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Asymptomatic TRANS carriers TRANS of the virus display no clinical symptoms but are known to be contagious. Recent evidence reveals that this sub-population, as well as persons with mild, represent a major contributor in the propagation of COVID-19. The asymptomatic TRANS sub-population frequently escapes detection by public health surveillance systems. Because of this, the currently accepted estimates of the basic reproduction number TRANS (Ro) of the virus are inaccurate. It is unlikely that a pathogen can blanket the planet in three months with an Ro in the vicinity of 3, as reported in the literature. In this manuscript, we present a mathematical model taking into account asymptomatic TRANS carriers TRANS. Our results indicate that an initial value of the effective reproduction number TRANS could range from 5.5 to 25.4, with a point estimate of 15.4, assuming mean parameters. The first three weeks of the model exhibit exponential growth, which is in agreement with average case data collected from thirteen countries with universal health care and robust communicable disease surveillance systems; the average rate of growth in the number of reported cases is 23.3% per day during this period.

    Estimating Spot Prevalence SERO of COVID-19 from Daily Death Data in Italy

    Authors: Ali Raheem

    doi:10.1101/2020.03.17.20037697 Date: 2020-03-20 Source: medRxiv

    COVID-19 is an emerging infectious disease MESHD which has been declared a pan- demic by the World Health Organisation. Due to limited testing capacity for this new virus, variable symptomatology the majority of infected showing non-specific mild or no symptoms it is likely current prevalence SERO data is an underestimate. Methods: We present an estimate of the number of cases of COVID-19 com- pared to the number of confirmed case TRANS in Italy based on the daily reported deaths MESHD and information about the incubation period TRANS, time from symptom on- set to death MESHD and reported case fatality rate. Results: Our model predicts that on the 31st of January 2020 when the first 3 infected cases had been identified by Italian authorise there were already nearly 30 cases in Italy, and by the 24th of February 2020 only 0.5% cases had been detected and confirmed by Italian authorities. While official statistics had 132 confirmed case TRANS we believe a more accurate estimate would be closer to 26000. With a case-doubling period of about 2.5 days.

    Hundreds of severe pediatric COVID-19 infections in Wuhan prior to the lockdown

    Authors: Zhanwei Du; Ciara Nugent; Benjamin J Cowling; Lauren Ancel Meyers

    doi:10.1101/2020.03.16.20037176 Date: 2020-03-20 Source: medRxiv

    Before January 22, 2020, only one pediatric case of COVID-19 was reported in mainland China. However, a retrospective surveillance study identified six children TRANS who had been hospitalized for COVID-19 in one of three central Wuhan hospitals between January 7th and January 15th. Given that Wuhan has over 395 other hospitals, there may have been far more severe pediatric cases than reported. There were six and 43 children TRANS out of 336 who tested positive for COVID-19 and influenza, respectively among all pediatric admissions during the 9-day period. By using this ratio in a detailed analysis of influenza surveillance data and COVID-19 epidemic dynamics (see Appendix), we estimate that there were 313 [95% CI: 171-520] children TRANS hospitalized for COVID-19 in Wuhan during January 7-15, 2020 (Figure). Under an epidemic doubling time of 7.31 days4, we estimate that there were 1105 [95% CI: 592, 1829] cumulative pediatric COVID-19 hospitalizations prior to the January 23rd lockdown, which far surpasses the 425 confirmed cases TRANS reported across all age groups TRANS, none of which were children TRANS under age TRANS 15. Children TRANS are strikingly absent from COVID-19 reports and limited data suggest that pediatric infections MESHD are overwhelmingly mild5. Thus, our estimates for hundreds of severe pediatric cases likely translates to thousands or even tens of thousands of mildly infected children TRANS, suggesting that the force of infection from children TRANS may be grossly underestimated and the infection fatality rate overestimated from confirmed case TRANS counts alone. This highlights the urgent need for more robust surveillance to gauge the true extent and severity of COVID-19 in all ages TRANS.

    Investigation on COVID-19 Infection Cases in Korea

    Authors: Yun Jung Kang

    doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-18483/v1 Date: 2020-03-20 Source: ResearchSquare

    On December 31st, 2019, the Chinese government announced officially that the country had a pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD case with an unknown cause. After that, Korea had 24 confirmed cases TRANS on February 8th, and the number has increased constantly since then. COVID-19, a highly contagious virus, infected another patient, Case No. 31, in Daegu; she was the first patient related to Sincheonji Church in Daegu. Later, the number of cases involved with Sincheonji skyrocketed. On March 6th, 2020, the accumulated number of confirmed cases TRANS was 6,284, with 42 dead among them. This study, through collecting epidemiological data about various COVID-19 infection MESHD cases, found out that getting together in large groups and religious ceremonies leads to massive infection MESHD, and that paying close attention to personal hygiene by wearing masks and sanitary gloves, etc., can prevent the spread of COVID-19. Additional epidemiological data and related studies on COVID-19 infections in Korea might either support or modify this conclusion. However, this study is significant in that it emphasizes the precautionary principle in preventing and managing infectious diseases MESHD, and that it has a suggestion for public health policies which are on urgent demand currently.

    Sentinel Event Surveillance to Estimate Total SARS-CoV-2 Infections MESHD, United States

    Authors: Andrew A. Lover; Thomas McAndrew

    doi:10.1101/2020.03.17.20037648 Date: 2020-03-20 Source: medRxiv

    Human infections with a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) were first identified via syndromic surveillance in December of 2019 in Wuhan China. Since identification, infections MESHD (coronavirus disease-2019; COVID-19) caused by this novel pathogen have spread globally, with more than 180,000 confirmed cases TRANS as of March 16, 2020. Effective public health interventions, including social distancing, contact tracing TRANS, and isolation/quarantine rely on the rapid and accurate identification of confirmed cases TRANS. However, testing capacity (having sufficient tests and laboratory throughput) to support these non-pharmaceutical interventions remains a challenge for containment and mitigation of COVID-19 infections. We undertook a sentinel event strategy (where single health events signal emerging trends) to estimate the incidence of COVID-19 in the US. Data from a recent national conference, the Conservative Political Action Conference, (CPAC) near Washington, DC and from the outbreak in Wuhan, China were used to fit a simple exponential growth model to estimate the total number of incident SARS- CoV-2 infections in the United States on March 1, 2020, and to forecast subsequent infections potentially undetected by current testing strategies. Our analysis and forecasting estimates a total of 54,100 SARS-CoV-2 infections MESHD (80 % CI 5,600 to 125,300) have occurred in the United States to March 12, 2020. Our forecast predicts that a very substantial number of infections MESHD are undetected, and without extensive and far-reaching non-pharmaceutical interventions, the number of infections should be expected to grow at an exponential rate.

    The early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy

    Authors: D Cereda; M Tirani; F Rovida; V Demicheli; M Ajelli; P Poletti; F Trentini; G Guzzetta; V Marziano; A Barone; M Magoni; S Deandrea; G Diurno; M Lombardo; M Faccini; A Pan; R Bruno; E Pariani; G Grasselli; A Piatti; M Gramegna; F Baldanti; A Melegaro; S Merler

    id:2003.09320v1 Date: 2020-03-20 Source: arXiv

    In the night of February 20, 2020, the first case of novel coronavirus disease MESHD (COVID-19) was confirmed in the Lombardy Region, Italy. In the week that followed, Lombardy experienced a very rapid increase in the number of cases. We analyzed the first 5,830 laboratory- confirmed cases TRANS to provide the first epidemiological characterization of a COVID-19 outbreak in a Western Country. Epidemiological data were collected through standardized interviews of confirmed cases TRANS and their close contacts TRANS. We collected demographic backgrounds, dates of symptom onset TRANS, clinical features, respiratory tract specimen results, hospitalization, contact tracing TRANS. We provide estimates of the reproduction number TRANS and serial interval TRANS. The epidemic in Italy started much earlier than February 20, 2020. At the time of detection of the first COVID-19 case, the epidemic had already spread in most municipalities of Southern-Lombardy. The median age TRANS for of cases is 69 years (range, 1 month to 101 years). 47% of positive subjects were hospitalized. Among these, 18% required intensive care. The mean serial interval TRANS is estimated to be 6.6 days (95% CI, 0.7 to 19). We estimate the basic reproduction number TRANS at 3.1 (95% CI, 2.9 to 3.2). We estimated a decreasing trend in the net reproduction number TRANS starting around February 20, 2020. We did not observe significantly different viral loads in nasal swabs between symptomatic and asymptomatic TRANS. The transmission TRANS potential of COVID-19 is very high and the number of critical cases may become largely unsustainable for the healthcare system in a very short-time horizon. We observed a slight decrease of the reproduction number TRANS, possibly connected with an increased population awareness and early effect of interventions. Aggressive containment strategies are required to control COVID-19 spread and catastrophic outcomes for the healthcare system.

    Correlation between Fasting Blood SERO Glucose Level at Admission and Mortality in COVID-19 Patients: A Retrospective Study

    Authors: Bin Zhu; Chunguo Jiang; Xiaokai Feng; Yanfei Zheng; Jie Yang; Feng Wang; Shi Liu; Fenghua Xu; Liming Zhang; Zhigang Zhao; Ziren Tang

    doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-18484/v2 Date: 2020-03-20 Source: ResearchSquare

    Background Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly, with a growing number of cases confirmed TRANS around the world. This study explores the relationship of fasting blood SERO glucose (FBG) at admission with mortality. Methods In this retrospective, single-center study, we analyzed the clinical characteristics of confirmed cases TRANS of COVID-19 in Wu Han from 29 January 2020 to 23 February 2020. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was performed to evaluate the relationship between FBG and mortality. Results A total of 107 patients were enrolled in our study. The average age TRANS was 59.49 ± 13.33 and the FBG at admission was 7.35 ± 3.13 mmol/L. There were 16 people died of COVID-19 with an average age TRANS 68.1 ± 9.5 and the FBG was 8.94 ± 4.76 mmol/L. Regression analysis showed that there were significant association between FBG and death MESHD (HR = 1.13, 95%CI: 1.02-1.24). After adjusting for covariables, the significance still exists. In addition, our result showed that FBG > 7.0 mmol/L or diabetic mellitus MESHD can significantly increase mortality after adjusting for the age TRANS and gender TRANS. Conclusions This study suggests that FBG at admission is an effective and reliable indicator for disease prognosis in COVID-19 patients.

    Clinical characteristics of 10 children with COVID-19 outside of Wuhan in Hubei Province

    Authors: Ming Chen; Panpan Fan; Zhi Liu; Junhua Li; Shaowu Huang; Wanwan Wu; Rui Pan; Dongchi Zhao

    doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-18255/v1 Date: 2020-03-20 Source: ResearchSquare

    Background: An outbreak of coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 MESHD (SARS-CoV-2) began in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. This study aims to report the clinical characteristics of children TRANS COVID-19 in Xiangyang, a city outside of Wuhan within Hubei Province. Methods: We retrospectively investigated the clinical manifestations, Chest CT imaging, and laboratory characteristics of confirmed cases TRANS of children TRANS with COVID-19 with WHO interim guidance in Xiangyang Central Hospital from Feb 1 to Mar 10, 2020. 10 children TRANS cases were confirmed TRANS by real-time RT-PCR, and were analyzed for epidemiological, demographic, clinical, radiological features and laboratory data. Outcomes were followed up until Mar 10, 2020. Results: 6 cases (60%) had never been to Wuhan but closely contacted with family members with confirmed COVID-19, and 4 cases (40%) had made short term trips to Wuhan alone without familial cluster. Most common symptoms was cough HP (50%) followed by fever HP fever MESHD (40%), 4 cases (40%) showed asymptomatic characteristics including 2 cases (20%) with abnormal chest CT imag e . 9 cases (90%) were mild type, only 1 case (10%) was moderate type, none of them progressed in severe or  critically disease MESHD. 4 (40%) cases showed leucopenia but nonelymphopenia. Abnormalities on chest computed tomograms (CT) were detected among 8 cases (80%), 2 of 4 cases without obvious symptoms had abnormal chest CT. Conclusions: Children TRANS's infection MESHD is mainly caused by family clusters, and COVID-19 seems less likely to spread from children TRANS to adults TRANS.The clinical manifestations in children TRANS with COVID-19 are non-specific with milder symptoms and good outcomes.

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MeSH Disease
Human Phenotype
Transmission
Seroprevalence


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