Corpus overview


Overview

MeSH Disease

Human Phenotype

Transmission

Seroprevalence
    displaying 531 - 540 records in total 940
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    Significant Relaxation of SARS-CoV-2-Targeted Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Will Result in Profound Mortality: A New York State Modelling Study MESHD

    Authors: Benjamin U. Hoffman

    doi:10.1101/2020.05.08.20095505 Date: 2020-05-12 Source: medRxiv

    Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV 2) is the most significant global health crisis of the 21st century. The aim of this study was to develop a model to estimate the effect of undocumented infections, seasonal infectivity MESHD, immunity, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social distancing, on the transmission TRANS, morbidity, and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 in New York State (NYS). Simulations revealed dramatic infectivity driven by undocumented infections, and a peak basic reproductive number TRANS in NYS of 5.7. NPIs have been effective, and relaxation >50% will result in tens-of-thousands more deaths. Endemic infection MESHD is likely to occur in the absence of profound sustained immunity. As a result, until an effective vaccine or other effective pharmaceutical intervention is developed, it will be critical to not reduce NPIs >50% below current levels. This study establishes fundamental characteristics of SARS CoV 2 transmission TRANS, which can help policymakers navigate combating this virus in the coming years.

    Expected impact of reopening schools after lockdown on COVID-19 epidemic in Ile-de-France

    Authors: Laura Di Domenico; Giulia Pullano; Chiara E. Sabbatini; Pierre-Yves Boëlle; Vittoria Colizza

    doi:10.1101/2020.05.08.20095521 Date: 2020-05-12 Source: medRxiv

    As several countries around the world are planning exit strategies to progressively lift the rigid social restrictions implemented with lockdown, different options are being chosen regarding the closure or reopening of schools. We evaluate the expected impact of reopening schools in lIe-de-France region after the withdrawal of lockdown currently scheduled for May 11, 2020. We explore several scenarios of partial, progressive, or full school reopening, coupled with moderate social distancing interventions and large-scale tracing TRANS, testing, and isolation. Accounting for current uncertainty on the role of children TRANS in COVID-19 epidemic, we test different hypotheses on children TRANS's transmissibility TRANS distinguishing between younger children TRANS (pre-school and primary school age TRANS) and adolescents (middle and high school age TRANS). Reopening schools MESHD after lifting lockdown will likely lead to an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in the following 2 months, even with lower transmissibility TRANS of children TRANS, yet protocols exist that would allow maintaining the epidemic under control without saturating the healthcare system. With pre-schools and primary schools in session starting May 11, ICU occupation MESHD would reach at most 72% [55,83]% (95% probability ranges) of a 1,500-bed capacity (here foreseen as the routine capacity restored in the region post-first wave) if no other school level reopens before summer or if middle and high schools reopen one month later through a progressive protocol (increasing attendance week by week). Full attendance of adolescents at school starting in June would overwhelm the ICU system (138% [118,159]% occupation). Reopening all schools on May 11 would likely lead to a second wave similar to the one recently experienced, except if maximum attendance is limited to 50% for both younger children TRANS and adolescents. Based on the estimated situation on May 11, no substantial difference in the epidemic risk is predicted between progressive and prompt reopening of pre-schools and primary schools, thus allowing full attendance of younger children TRANS mostly in need of resuming learning and development. Reopening would require however large-scale trace TRANS and testing to promptly isolate cases, in addition to moderate social distancing interventions. Full attendance in middle and high schools is instead not recommended. Findings are consistent across different assumptions on the relative transmissibility TRANS of younger children TRANS and for small increase of the reproductive number TRANS possibly due to decreasing compliance to lockdown.

    A Mathematical Model Approach for Prevention and Intervention Measures of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Uganda

    Authors: Fulgensia Kamugisha Mbabazi; Gavamukulya Yahaya; Richard Awichi; Peter Olupot Olupot; Samson Rwahwire; Saphina Biira; Livingstone Serwadda Luboobi

    doi:10.1101/2020.05.08.20095067 Date: 2020-05-11 Source: medRxiv

    The human-infecting corona virus disease (COVID-19) caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome MESHD corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was declared a global pandemic on March 11th, 2020. Current human deaths due to the infection MESHD have raised the threat globally with only 1 African country free of Virus (Lesotho) as of May 6th, 2020. Different countries have adopted different interventions at different stages of the outbreak, with social distancing being the first option while lock down the preferred option for flattening the curve at the peak of the pandemic. Lock down is aimed at adherence to social distancing, preserve the health system and improve survival. We propose a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Expected recoveries (SEIR) mathematical model to study the impact of a variety of prevention and control strategies Uganda has applied since the eruption of the pandemic in the country. We analyze the model using available data to find the infection-free, endemic/infection steady states and the basic reproduction number TRANS. In addition, a sensitivity SERO analysis done shows that the transmission TRANS rate and the rate at which persons acquire the virus, have a positive influence on the basic reproduction number TRANS. On other hand the rate of evacuation by rescue ambulance greatly reduces the reproduction number TRANS. The results have potential to inform the impact and effect of early strict interventions including lock down in resource limited settings and social distancing

    Evaluating transmission TRANS heterogeneity and super-spreading event of COVID-19 in a metropolis of China

    Authors: Yunjun Zhang; Yuying Li; Lu Wang; Mingyuan Li; Xiao-Hua Zhou

    doi:10.1101/2020.05.06.20073742 Date: 2020-05-11 Source: medRxiv

    Background: COVID-19 caused rapid mass infection MESHD worldwide. Understanding its transmission TRANS characteristics including heterogeneity is of vital importance for prediction and intervention of future epidemics. In addition, transmission TRANS heterogeneity usually envokes super spreading events (SSEs) where certain individuals infect MESHD large numbers of secondary cases TRANS. Till now, studies of transmission TRANS heterogeneity of COVID-19 and its underlying reason are far from reaching an agreement. MethodsWe collected information of all infected cases between January 21 and February 26, 2020 from official public sources in Tianjin, a metropolis of China. Utilizing a heterogeneous transmission TRANS model based on branching process along with a negative binomial offspring distribution, we estimated the reproductive number R TRANS and the dispersion parameter k which characterized the transmission TRANS potential and heterogeneity, respectively. Furthermore, we studied the SSE in Tianjin outbreak and evaluated the effect of control measures undertaken by local government based on the heterogeneous model. Results: A total of 135 confirmed cases TRANS (including 34 imported cases and 101 local infections) in Tianjin by February 26th 2020 entered the study. We grouped them into 43 transmission chains TRANS with the largest chain of 45 cases and the longest chain of 4 generations. The estimated reproduction number TRANS R was at 0.67 (95%CI: 0.54[~]0.84), and the dispersion parameter k was at 0.25 (95% CI: 0.13[~]0.88). A super spreader causing six infections MESHD in Tianjin, was identified. In addition, our simulation results showed that the outbreak in Tianjin would have caused 165 infections MESHD and sustained for 7.56 generations on average if no control measures had been taken by local government since January 28th. Conclusions: Our analysis suggested that the transmission TRANS of COVID-19 was subcritical but with significant heterogeneity and may incur SSE. More efforts are needed to verify the transmission TRANS heterogeneity of COVID-19 in other populations and its contributing factors, which is important for developing targeted measures to curb the pandemic.

    Epidemiologic, Clinical, and Laboratory Findings of the COVID-19 in the current pandemic: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

    Authors: Yewei Xie; Zaisheng Wang; Huipeng Liao; Gifty Marley; Dan Wu; Weiming Tang

    doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-28367/v2 Date: 2020-05-11 Source: ResearchSquare

    Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the world deeply, with more than 3,000,000 people infected and nearly 200,000 deaths. This review aimed to summarize the epidemiologic traits, clinical spectrum, CT results and laboratory findings of the COVID-19 pandemic.Methods: We scoped for relevant literatures published during 1st Dec 2019 to 23rd Apr 2020 based on four databases using English and Chinese languages. We reviewed and analyzed the relevant clinic outcomes of COVID-19.Results: The COVID-19 pandemic was found to have a higher transmission TRANS rate compared to SARS and MERS MESHD and involved 4 stages of evolution. The basic reproduction number TRANS ( R0 TRANS) is 3.32 (95% CI:3.24-3.39), the incubation period TRANS was 5.24 days (95% CI:3.97-6.50, 5 studies) on average, and the average time for symptoms onset TRANS varied by countries. Common clinical spectrums identified included fever HP fever MESHD (38.1-39.0℃), cough HP cough MESHD and fatigue HP fatigue MESHD, with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome MESHD Respiratory Distress HP Syndrome ( ARDS MESHD) being the most common complication reported. Body temperatures above 39.0 ℃, dyspnea HP dyspnea MESHD, and anorexia HP anorexia MESHD were more common symptoms in severe patients. Aged TRANS over 60 years old, having co-morbidities, and developing complications were the commonest high-risk factors associated with severe conditions. Leucopenia and lymphopenia HP lymphopenia MESHD were the most common signs of infection MESHD while liver and kidney damage MESHD were rare but may cause bad outcomes for patients. The bilateral, multifocal Ground-Glass Opacification (GGO) on peripheral, and the consolidative pulmonary opacity HP were the most frequent CT results and the tendency of mortality rates differed by region.Conclusions: We provided a bird’s-eye view of the COVID-19 during the current pandemic, which will help better understanding the key traits of the disease. The findings could be used for disease’s future research, control and prevention.

    The contribution of asymptomatic TRANS SARS-CoV-2 infections MESHD to transmission TRANS - a model-based analysis of the Diamond Princess outbreak

    Authors: Jon C Emery; Timothy W Russel; Yang Liu; Joel Hellewell; Carl AB Pearson; - CMMID 2019-nCoV working group; Gwen M Knight; Rosalind M Eggo; Adam J Kucharski; Sebastian Funk; Stefan Flasche; Rein M G J Houben

    doi:10.1101/2020.05.07.20093849 Date: 2020-05-11 Source: medRxiv

    Background: Some key gaps in the understanding of SARS-CoV-2 infection MESHD remain. One of them is the contribution to transmission TRANS from individuals experiencing asymptomatic TRANS infections. We aimed to characterise the proportion and infectiousness of asymptomatic TRANS infections using data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Methods: We used a transmission TRANS model of COVID-19 with asymptomatic TRANS and presymptomatic states calibrated to outbreak data from the Diamond Princess, to quantify the contribution of asymptomatic TRANS infections to transmission TRANS. Data available included the date of symptom onset TRANS for symptomatic disease for passengers and crew, the number of symptom agnostic tests done each day, and date of positive test for asymptomatic TRANS and presymptomatic individuals. Findings: On the Diamond Princess 74% (70-78%) of infections proceeded asymptomatically TRANS, i.e. a 1:3.8 case-to-infection ratio. Despite the intense testing 53%, (51-56%) of infections remained undetected, most of them asymptomatic TRANS. Asymptomatic TRANS individuals were the source for 69% (20-85%) of all infections MESHD. While the data did not allow identification of the infectiousness of asymptomatic TRANS infections MESHD, assuming no or low infectiousness resulted in posterior estimates for the net reproduction number TRANS of an individual progressing through presymptomatic and symptomatic stages in excess of 15. Interpretation: Asymptomatic TRANS SARS-CoV-2 infections MESHD may contribute substantially to transmission TRANS. This is essential to consider for countries when assessing the potential effectiveness of ongoing control measures to contain COVID-19.

    Transmission TRANS in Latent Period Causes A Large Number of Infected People in the United States

    Authors: Qinghe Liu; Junkai Zhu; Zhicheng Liu; Yuhao Zhu; Liuling Zhou; Zefei Gao; Deqiang Li; Yuanbo Tang; Xiang Zhang; Junyan Yang; Qiao Wang

    doi:10.1101/2020.05.07.20094086 Date: 2020-05-11 Source: medRxiv

    The cumulative number of confirmed cases TRANS in the United States exceeded one million on 29 April 2020, becoming the country of the most serious pandemic in the world. We proposed a model to analyze the real situation and follow-up trend of the epidemic in the US. The proposed model divides the epidemic period into two phases, and includes three different categories of transmitters: the latent population, the documented infectious population, and the undocumented infectious population. We use metapopulation network to simulate the spread of the COVID-19 in the US, and apply the Bayesian inference to estimate the key parameters of the model. We also perform component analysis and sensitivity SERO analysis, researching the compositions of the people with COVID-19. The results show that the basic reproduction number TRANS in the early period of propagation is 4.06. As of April 13, 2020, only 45% (95% CI: 35% - 73%) of symptom onset TRANS cases in the United States were documented. The incubation period TRANS of COVID-19 is 10.69 days (95% CI: 10.02-11.74). If the current level of interventions is continued, the cumulative number of confirmed cases TRANS is expected to reach more than 1.7 million in July and continue to grow.

    The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais, Brazil: insights from epidemiological data and SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequencing.

    Authors: Joilson Xavier; Marta Giovanetti; Talita Adelino; Vagner Fonseca; Alana Vitor Barbosa da Costa; Adriana Aparecida Ribeiro; Katlin Nascimento Felicio; Clara Guerra Duarte; Marcos Vinicius Ferreira Silva; Alvaro Salgado; Mauricio Teixeira Lima; Ronaldo de Jesus; Allison Fabri; Cristiane Franco Soares Zoboli; Thales Gutemberg Souza Santos; Felipe Iani; Ana Maria Bispo de Filippis; Marilda Agudo Mendonca Teixeira de Siqueira; Andre Luiz de Abreu; Vasco de Azevedo; Dario Brock Ramalho; Carlos F. Campelo de Albuquerque; Tulio de Oliveira; Edward C. Holmes; Jose Lourenco; Luiz Carlos Junior Alcantara; Marluce Aparecida Assuncao Oliveira

    doi:10.1101/2020.05.05.20091611 Date: 2020-05-11 Source: medRxiv

    The recent emergence of a previously unknown coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), first confirmed in the city of Wuhan in China in December 2019, has caused serious public health and economic issues due to its rapid dissemination worldwide. Although 61,888 confirmed cases TRANS had been reported in Brazil by 28 April 2020, little was known about the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the country. To better understand the recent epidemic in the second most populous state in southeast Brazil (Minas Gerais, MG), we looked at existing epidemiological data from 3 states and sequenced 40 complete genomes from MG cases using Nanopore. We found evidence of multiple independent introductions from outside MG, both from genome analyses and the overly dispersed distribution of reported cases and deaths. Epidemiological estimates of the reproductive number TRANS using different data sources and theoretical assumptions all suggest a reduction in transmission TRANS potential since the first reported case, but potential for sustained transmission TRANS in the near future. The estimated date of introduction in Brazil was consistent with epidemiological data from the first case of a returning-traveler from Lombardia, Italy. These findings highlight the unique reality of MGs epidemic and reinforce the need for real-time and continued genomic surveillance strategies as a way of understanding and therefore preparing against the epidemic spread of emerging viral pathogens.

    COVID-19 mitigation strategies and overview on results from relevant studies in Europe

    Authors: Philipp Heider

    id:2005.05249v1 Date: 2020-05-11 Source: arXiv

    In December 2019, the first patients in Wuhan, China were diagnosed with a primary atypical pneumonia HP pneumonia MESHD, which showed to be unknown and contagious. Since then, known as COVID-19 disease, the responsible viral pathogen, SARS-CoV-2, has spread around the world in a pandemic. Decisions on how to deal with the crisis are often based on simulations of the pandemic spread of the virus. The results of some of these, as well as their methodology and possibilities for improvement, will be described in more detail in this paper in order to inform beyond the current public health dogma called "flatten-the-curve". There are several ways to model an epidemic in order to simulate the spread of diseases TRANS. Depending on the timeliness, scope and quality of the associated real data, these multivariable models differ in the value of used parameters, but also in the selection of considered influencing factors. It was exemplarily shown that epidemics in their course are simulated more realistically by models that assume subexponential growth. Furthermore, various simulations of the COVID-19 pandemic were presented in an European perspective, compared against each other and discussed in more detail. It is difficult to estimate how credible the simulations of the pandemic models currently are, so it remains to be seen whether the spread of the pandemic can be effectively reduced by the measures taken. Whether a model works well in reality is largely determined by the quality and scope of its underlying data. Past studies have shown that countermeasures are able to reduce reproduction numbers TRANS or transmission TRANS rates in epidemics. In addition to that, the presented modelling study provides a good framework for the creation of subexponential-growth-models for assessing the spread of COVID-19.

    Mobility trends provide a leading indicator of changes in SARS-CoV-2 transmission TRANS

    Authors: Andrew C Miller; Nicholas J Foti; Joseph A Lewnard; Nicholas P Jewell; Carlos Guestrin; Emily B Fox

    doi:10.1101/2020.05.07.20094441 Date: 2020-05-11 Source: medRxiv

    Determining the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on transmission TRANS of the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 MESHD (SARS-CoV-2) is paramount for the design and deployment of effective public health policies. Incorporating Apple Maps mobility data into an epidemiological model of daily deaths MESHD and hospitalizations allowed us to estimate an explicit relationship between human mobility and transmission TRANS in the United States. We find that reduced mobility explains a large decrease in the effective reproductive number TRANS attained by April 1st and further identify state-to-state variation in the inferred transmission TRANS-mobility relationship. These findings indicate that simply relaxing stay-at-home orders can rapidly lead to outbreaks exceeding the scale of transmission TRANS that has occurred to date. Our findings provide quantitative guidance on the impact policies must achieve against transmission TRANS to safely relax social distancing measures.

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MeSH Disease
Human Phenotype
Transmission
Seroprevalence


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