Corpus overview


Overview

MeSH Disease

Human Phenotype

Pneumonia (158)

Fever (109)

Cough (109)

Falls (51)

Fatigue (27)


Transmission

Seroprevalence
    displaying 31 - 40 records in total 2564
    records per page




    COVID-19 in South Asia: Real-time monitoring of reproduction and case fatality rate

    Authors: Fakhar Mustafa; Rehan Ahmed Khan Sherwani; Syed Salman Saqlain; Muhammad Asad Meraj; Haseeb ur Rehman; Rida Ayyaz

    id:2008.04347v1 Date: 2020-08-10 Source: arXiv

    As the ravages caused by COVID-19 pandemic are becoming inevitable with every moment, monitoring and understanding of transmission TRANS and fatality rate has become even more paramount for containing its spread. The key purpose of this analysis is to report the real-time effective reproduction rate ($R_t$ ) and case fatality rates (CFR) of COVID-19 in South Asia region. Data for this study are extracted from JHU CSSE COVID-19 Data source up to July 31, 2020. $R_t$ is estimated using exponential growth and time-dependent methods. R0 TRANS package in R-language is employed to estimate $R_t$ by fitting the existing epidemic curve. Case fatality rate is estimated by using Naive and Kaplan-Meier methods. Owing to exponential increase in cases of COVID-19, the pandemic will ensue in India, Maldives and in Nepal as $R_t$ was estimated greater than 1 for these countries. Although case fatality rates are found lesser as compared to other highly affected regions in the world, strict monitoring of deaths MESHD for better health facilities and care of patients is emphasized. More regional level cooperation and efforts are the need of time to minimize the detrimental effects of the virus.

    Exploring the knowledge, awareness and practices of COVID-19 among dentists in Bangladesh: A Cross-sectional Investigation

    Authors: Mohammad Tawfique Hossain Chowdhury; Ehsanul Hoque Apu; Sujan Kanti Nath; Ashek Elahi Noor; Clopa Pina Podder; Ilias Mahmud; Russell Kabir

    doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-56753/v1 Date: 2020-08-10 Source: ResearchSquare

    Aim: This study aims to assess the knowledge, awareness, and practices of registered dentists regarding COVID-19 epidemiology and transmission TRANS during the rapid outbreak of this highly contagious virus in Bangladesh. Subjects and Methods: A cross-sectional web-based survey was conducted among the dentists who were enrolled with their valid unique Bangladesh Medical and Dental Council (BMDC) registration number. A validated questionnaire was developed and distributed among the dentists by using different social media platforms. A total of 184 dentists participated in the survey between March and April 2020.   Both descriptive analysis logistic regression analysis was performed.Results: The mean age TRANS of the dentists is 31.75 years, with a standard deviation of 6.5 years. About 29.3% of dentists completed their postgraduate qualification, and 76% of them are engaged in private practice. The dentists who completed postgraduate education are three times more likely to know (OR=3.1, 95%CI 1.2-7.9) about COVID-19 compared to the dentists who completed an undergraduate degree. It is also observed that the dentists who are employed in private and independent settings are four times (OR=4, 95%CI 0.7-24) more likely to follow safe practice compared to the dentists who are engaged in the government hospitals or clinics.Conclusion: The dentists from Bangladesh have shown good knowledge, awareness, and practice regarding COVID-19. We recommend that the healthcare authorities, professional organizations, and hospitals coordinate, and conduct mandatory advanced infectious disease MESHD training for all the practicing dentists in the country.

    Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 Pandemic with Demographic Effects

    Authors: Abdul Alimamy Kamara; Lagès N. Mouanguissa; Godfrey Barasa

    doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-56595/v1 Date: 2020-08-10 Source: ResearchSquare

    In this paper, an asymptomatic infection MESHD asymptomatic TRANS transmission TRANS Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model with demographic effects is used to understand the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemics. We calculate the basic reproduction number TRANS ( R0 TRANS), and prove the global stability of the model by solving the differential equations of the model using the disease MESHD-free equilibrium (DFE) and endemic equilibrium (EE) equations, respectively. We showed that when the R0 TRANS less than one or less than and equal to one, and greater than one or greater than and equal to one the DFE and EE asymptotic TRANS stability exist theoretically and numerically, respectively. We also demonstrate the detrimental impact of the direct and asymptomatic infections MESHD asymptomatic TRANS for the COVID-19 pandemic. 

    Hospital and Population-Based Evidences for COVID-19 Early Circulation in the East of France

    Authors: Laurent Gerbaud; Candy Guiguet-Auclair; Franck Breysse; Joséphine Odoul; Lemlih Ouchchane; Jonathan Peterschmitt; Camille Dezfouli-Desfer; Vincent Breton

    id:10.20944/preprints202008.0204.v1 Date: 2020-08-08 Source: Preprints.org

    Background: Understanding the SARS-CoV-2 dynamics and transmission TRANS is a major issue to model and control its propagation. The Alsace region in the East of France has been among the first French COVID-19 clusters in 2020. Methods: We confront evidences from three independent and retrospective sources: a population-based survey through internet, an analysis of the medical records from hospital emergency MESHD care services and the review of medical biology laboratory data. We also check the role played in the virus propagation by a large religious meeting which gathered over 2000 participants from all over France mid-February in Mulhouse. Results: SARS-CoV-2 was circulating several weeks before the first officially recognized case in Alsace on February 26th 2020 and the sanitary alert on March 3rd. The religious gathering played a role for secondary dissemination of the epidemic in France, but not in creating the local outbreak which was in place much earlier. Conclusions: Our results illustrate how the integration of data coming from multiple sources could help trigger an early alarm in the context of an emerging disease MESHD. Good information data systems, able to produce earlier alerts, could have avoided a general lockdown in France.

    The SARS-COV-2 outbreak around the Amazon rainforest: the relevance of the airborne transmission TRANS

    Authors: Edilson Crema

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.06.20169433 Date: 2020-08-07 Source: medRxiv

    Background This paper presents a global analysis of the SARS-COV-2 outbreak in Brazil. Amazonian States have a much higher contamination rate than the southern and southeastern States. So far, no explanation has been provided for this striking difference that can shed light on the airborne transmission TRANS of the virus. Minimizing airborne transmission TRANS, health authorities recommend two meters as a safe distance. However, recent experiments reveal that this can be the main form of contagion. There is a lack of theoretical explanation on how airborne transmission TRANS works. Methods To investigate the spread of SARS-COV-2 in different macro environments, we analyzed the daily official data on the evolution of COVID-19 in Brazil. We compared our epidemiologic results obtained in States with very different climatic characteristics, and that had adopted, almost simultaneously, similar social isolation measures. To understand the virus spread, it was necessary to calculate theoretically the movement and behavior in the air of saliva droplets. Findings The transmission TRANS of SARS-COV-2 is much faster in the Amazon rainforest region. Our theoretical calculations explain and support the empirical results observed in recent experiments that demonstrate the relevance of aerial transmission TRANS of the coronavirus. Interpretation An onset of collective immunity may have been achieved with a contamination rate of about 15% of the Amazonian population. If confirmed, this result will have an essential impact on the management of the pandemic across the planet. The airborne transmission TRANS played a decisive role in the striking difference in the evolution of the pandemic among Brazilian regions. Air humidity is the most important climatic factor in viral spreading, while usual ambient temperatures do not have strong influence. There is no safe indoor distance for the coronavirus transmission TRANS. So, mask and eye protection are essential.

    The effect of school closures and reopening strategies on COVID-19 infection MESHD dynamics in the San Francisco Bay Area: a cross-sectional survey and modeling analysis

    Authors: Jennifer R Head; Kristin Andrejko; Qu Cheng; Philip A Collender; Sophie Phillips; Anna Boser; Alexandra K Heaney; Christopher M Hoover; Sean L Wu; Graham R Northrup; Karen Click; Robert Harrison; Joseph A Lewnard; Justin V Remais

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.06.20169797 Date: 2020-08-07 Source: medRxiv

    Background Large-scale school closures have been implemented worldwide to curb the spread of COVID-19. However, the impact of school closures and re-opening on epidemic dynamics remains unclear. Methods We simulated COVID-19 transmission TRANS dynamics using an individual-based stochastic model, incorporating social- contact data TRANS of school- aged TRANS children TRANS during shelter-in-place orders derived from Bay Area (California) household surveys. We simulated transmission TRANS under observed conditions and counterfactual intervention scenarios between March 17-June 1, and evaluated various fall HP 2020 K-12 reopening strategies. Findings Between March 17-June 1, assuming children TRANS <10 were half as susceptible to infection MESHD as older children TRANS and adults TRANS, we estimated school closures averted a similar number of infections MESHD (13,842 cases; 95% CI: 6,290, 23,040) as workplace closures (15,813; 95% CI: 9,963, 22,617) and social distancing measures (7,030; 95% CI: 3,118, 11,676). School closure effects were driven by high school and middle school closures. Under assumptions of moderate community transmission TRANS, we estimate that fall HP 2020 school reopenings will increase symptomatic illness among high school teachers (an additional 40.7% expected to experience symptomatic infection MESHD, 95% CI: 1.9, 61.1), middle school teachers (37.2%, 95% CI: 4.6, 58.1), and elementary school teachers (4.1%, 95% CI: -1.7, 12.0). Results are highly dependent on uncertain parameters, notably the relative susceptibility and infectiousness of children TRANS, and extent of community transmission TRANS amid re-opening. The school-based interventions needed to reduce the risk to fewer than an additional 1% of teachers infected varies by grade level. A hybrid-learning approach with halved class sizes of 10 students may be needed in high schools, while maintaining small cohorts of 20 students may be needed for elementary schools. Interpretation Multiple in-school intervention strategies and community transmission TRANS reductions, beyond the extent achieved to date, will be necessary to avoid undue excess risk associated with school reopening. Policymakers must urgently enact policies that curb community transmission TRANS and implement within-school control measures to simultaneously address the tandem health crises posed by COVID-19 and adverse child TRANS health and development consequences of long-term school closures.

    Dynamic Analysis of Social Distancing Ratio, Isolation Rate and Transmission TRANS Coefficient in COVID-19 Epidemic for Many Countries by SIQR Model

    Authors: Koichi Hashiguchi

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.04.20167882 Date: 2020-08-07 Source: medRxiv

    Recently SIQR model was proposed by Odagaki as the modification of conventional SIR model by adding the term for isolation of infected persons, Q(Quarantined). The exponent {lambda} of the exponential function expressing the number of newly tested positive persons was defined as an linear equation explicitly with three important parameters, transmission TRANS coefficient, social distancing ratio x and isolation rate q. In this study, applying this model to the number of positive persons in publicly available database, daily {lambda} values are regression analyzed, and social distancing ratio and isolation rate are derived. Analyses for 7 countries including Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and western countries are performed and determine the dynamic locus of q-x relation on the q-x plane during epidemic propagation. Finally, the remaining parameter, the transmission TRANS coefficient is shown to closely relate to the maximum {lambda}, {lambda}max, and {lambda}max ( transmission TRANS coefficient) is characterized as a specific value for each country. Then, the magnitude of {lambda}max is combined with the value of {lambda}min to influence the total number of new cases until the convergence stage.

    Prediction of Covid-19 Infections MESHD Through December 2020 for 10 US States Using a Two Parameter Transmission TRANS Model Incorporating Outdoor Temperature and School Re-Opening Effects

    Authors: Ty A Newell

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.06.20169896 Date: 2020-08-07 Source: medRxiv

    Covid-19 infection MESHD case predictions (total cases) are made for August through December 2020 for 10 US States (NY, WA, GA, IL, MN, FL, OH, MI, CA, and NC). A two-parameter model based on social distance index (SDI) and disease MESHD transmission TRANS efficiency (G) parameters is used to characterize SARS-CoV-2 disease MESHD disease spread TRANS spread. Current lack of coherent and coordinated US policy causes the US to follow a linear infection MESHD growth path with a limit cycle behavior that modulates the US between accelerating and decaying infection MESHD growth on either side of a linear growth path boundary. Four prediction cases are presented: 1) No school re-openings; fall HP season temperature effect 2) No school re-openings; no fall HP season temperature effect 3) School re-openings; fall HP season temperature effect 4) School re-openings; no fall HP season temperature effect Fall HP outdoor temperatures, in contrast to the 1918 pandemic, are predicted to be beneficial for dampening SARS-CoV-2 transmission TRANS in States as they pass through swing season temperature range of 70F to 50F. Physical re-opening of schools in September are predicted to accelerate infections MESHD. States with low current infectious case numbers (eg, NY) are predicted to be minimally impacted while States with high current infectious case numbers (eg, CA and FL) will be significantly impacted by school re-openings. Updated infection MESHD predictions will be posted monthly (Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec) with adjustments based on actual trends in SDI and G. Assessments related to outdoor temperature impact, school re-openings, and other public gathering re-openings will be discussed in updated reports.

    Wrong person, place and time: viral load and contact network structure predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission TRANS and super-spreading events

    Authors: Ashish Goyal; Daniel B Reeves; E. Fabian Cardozo-Ojeda; Joshua T Schiffer; Bryan T. Mayer

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.07.20169920 Date: 2020-08-07 Source: medRxiv

    SARS-CoV-2 is difficult to contain because most transmissions TRANS occur during the pre-symptomatic phase of infection MESHD. Moreover, in contrast to influenza, while most SARS-CoV-2 infected people do not transmit the virus to anybody, a small percentage secondarily infect large numbers of people. We designed mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza which link observed viral shedding patterns with key epidemiologic features of each virus, including distributions of the number of secondary cases TRANS attributed to each infected person (individual R0 TRANS) and the duration between symptom onset TRANS in the transmitter and secondarily infected person ( serial interval TRANS). We identify that people with SARS-CoV-2 or influenza infections MESHD are usually contagious for fewer than two days congruent with peak viral load several days after infection MESHD, and that transmission TRANS is unlikely below a certain viral load. SARS-CoV-2 super-spreader events with over 10 secondary infections MESHD occur when an infected person is briefly shedding at a very high viral load and has a high concurrent number of exposed contacts. The higher predisposition of SARS-CoV-2 towards super-spreading events is not due to its 1-2 additional weeks of viral shedding relative to influenza. Rather, a person infected with SARS-CoV-2 exposes more people within equivalent physical contact networks than a person infected with influenza, likely due to aerosolization of virus. Our results support policies that limit crowd size in indoor spaces and provide viral load benchmarks for infection MESHD control and therapeutic interventions intended to prevent secondary transmission TRANS.

    SARS-CoV-2 infection MESHD, neuropathogenesis and transmission TRANS among deer mice: Implications for reverse zoonosis MESHD to New World rodents

    Authors: Anna Fagre; Juliette Lewis; Miles Eckley; Shijun Zhan; Savannah M Rocha; Nicole R Sexton; Bradly Burke; Brian J Geiss; Olve Peersen; Rebekah Kading; Joel Rovnak; Gregory D Ebel; Ronald B Tjalkens; Tawfik Aboellail; Tony Schountz

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.07.241810 Date: 2020-08-07 Source: bioRxiv

    Coronavirus disease MESHD-19 (COVID-19) emerged in November, 2019 in China and rapidly became pandemic. As with other coronaviruses, a preponderance of evidence suggests the virus originated in horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus spp.) and likely underwent a recombination event in an intermediate host prior to entry into human populations. A significant concern is that SARS-CoV-2 could become established in secondary reservoir hosts outside of Asia. To assess this potential, we challenged deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) with SARS-CoV-2 and found robust virus replication in the upper respiratory tract, lungs and intestines, with detectable viral RNA for up to 21 days in oral swabs and 14 days in lungs. Virus entry into the brain also occurred, likely via gustatory-olfactory-trigeminal pathway with eventual compromise to the blood SERO brain barrier. Despite this, no conspicuous signs of disease MESHD were observed and no deer mice succumbed to infection MESHD. Expression of several innate immune response genes were elevated in the lungs, notably IFN, Cxcl10, Oas2, Tbk1 and Pycard. Elevated CD4 and CD8{beta} expression in the lungs was concomitant with Tbx21, IFN{gamma} and IL-21 expression, suggesting a type I inflammatory immune response. Contact transmission TRANS occurred from infected to naive deer mice through two passages, showing sustained natural transmission TRANS. In the second deer mouse passage, an insertion of 4 amino acids occurred to fixation in the N-terminal domain of the spike protein that is predicted to form a solvent-accessible loop. Subsequent examination of the source virus from BEI Resources indicated the mutation was present at very low levels, demonstrating potent purifying selection for the insert during in vivo passage. Collectively, this work has determined that deer mice are a suitable animal model for the study of SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis, and that they have the potential to serve as secondary reservoir hosts that could lead to periodic outbreaks of COVID-19 in North America.

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MeSH Disease
Human Phenotype
Transmission
Seroprevalence


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