Corpus overview


Overview

MeSH Disease

Infections (174)

Disease (150)

Coronavirus Infections (75)

Death (64)

Fever (49)


Human Phenotype

Fever (50)

Cough (47)

Pneumonia (29)

Fatigue (16)

Hypertension (11)


Transmission

Seroprevalence
    displaying 1 - 10 records in total 430
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    An improved methodology for estimating the prevalence SERO of SARS-CoV-2

    Authors: Virag Patel; Catherine McCarthy; Rachel A Taylor; Ruth Moir; Louise A Kelly; Emma L Snary

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.04.20168187 Date: 2020-08-06 Source: medRxiv

    Since the identification of Coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome MESHD coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in China in December 2019, there have been more than 17 million cases of the disease MESHD in 216 countries worldwide. Comparisons of prevalence SERO estimates between different communities can inform policy decisions regarding safe travel TRANS between countries, help to assess when to implement (or remove) disease MESHD control measures and identify the risk of over-burdening healthcare providers. Estimating the true prevalence SERO can, however, be challenging because officially reported figures are likely to be significant underestimates of the true burden of COVID-19 within a community. Previous methods for estimating the prevalence SERO fail to incorporate differences between populations (such as younger populations having higher rates of asymptomatic TRANS cases) and so comparisons between, for example, countries, can be misleading. Here, we present an improved methodology for estimating COVID-19 prevalence SERO. We take the reported number of cases and deaths MESHD (together with population size) as raw prevalence SERO for the population. We then apply an age TRANS-adjustment to this which allows the age TRANS-distribution of that population to influence the case-fatality rate and the proportion of asymptomatic TRANS cases. Finally, we calculate the likely underreporting factor for the population and use this to adjust our prevalence SERO estimate further. We use our method to estimate the prevalence SERO for 166 countries (or the states of the United States of America, hereafter referred to as US state) where sufficient data were available. Our estimates show that as of the 30th July 2020, the top three countries with the highest estimated prevalence SERO are Brazil (1.26%, 95% CI: 0.96 - 1.37), Kyrgyzstan (1.10%, 95% CI: 0.82 - 1.19) and Suriname (0.58%, 95% CI: 0.44 - 0.63). Brazil is predicted to have the largest proportion of all the current global cases (30.41%, 95%CI: 27.52 - 30.84), followed by the USA (14.52%, 95%CI: 14.26 - 16.34) and India (11.23%, 95%CI: 11.11 - 11.24). Amongst the US states, the highest prevalence SERO is predicted to be in Louisiana (1.07%, 95% CI: 1.02 - 1.12), Florida (0.90%, 95% CI: 0.86 - 0.94) and Mississippi (0.77%, 95% CI: 0.74 - 0.81) whereas amongst European countries, the highest prevalence SERO is predicted to be in Montenegro (0.47%, 95% CI: 0.42 - 0.50), Kosovo (0.35%, 95% CI: 0.29 - 0.37) and Moldova (0.28%, 95% CI: 0.23 - 0.30). Our results suggest that Kyrgyzstan (0.04 tests per predicted case), Brazil (0.04 tests per predicted case) and Suriname (0.29 tests per predicted case) have the highest underreporting out of the countries in the top 25 prevalence SERO. In comparison, Israel (34.19 tests per predicted case), Bahrain (19.82 per predicted case) and Palestine (9.81 tests per predicted case) have the least underreporting. The results of this study may be used to understand the risk between different geographical areas and highlight regions where the prevalence SERO of COVID-19 is increasing most rapidly. The method described is quick and easy to implement. Prevalence SERO estimates should be updated on a regular basis to allow for rapid fluctuations in disease MESHD patterns.

    Extended lifetime of respiratory droplets in a turbulent vapour puff and its implications on airborne disease MESHD transmission TRANS

    Authors: Kai Leong Chong; Chong Shen Ng; Naoki Hori; Rui Yang; Roberto Verzicco; Detlef Lohse

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.04.20168468 Date: 2020-08-06 Source: medRxiv

    To mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic, it is key to slow down the spreading of the life-threatening coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). This spreading mainly occurs through virus-laden droplets expelled at speaking, screaming, shouting, singing, coughing MESHD coughing HP, sneezing MESHD sneezing HP, or even breathing [1-7]. To reduce infections MESHD through such respiratory droplets, authorities all over the world have introduced the so-called "2-meter distance rule" or "6-foot rule". However, there is increasing empirical evidence, e.g. through the analysis of super-spreading events [6, 8-11], that airborne transmission TRANS of the coronavirus over much larger distances plays a major role [1-3, 7, 12-15], with tremendous implications for the risk assessment of coronavirus transmission TRANS. It is key to better and fundamentally understand the environmental ambient conditions under which airborne transmission TRANS of the coronavirus is likely to occur, in order to be able to control and adapt them. Here we employ direct numerical simulations of a typical respiratory aerosol in a turbulent jet of the respiratory event within a Lagrangian-Eulerian approach [16-18] with 5000 droplets, coupled to the ambient velocity, temperature, and humidity fields to allow for exchange of mass and heat [19] and to realistically account for the droplet evaporation under different ambient conditions. We found that for an ambient relative humidity of 50% the lifetime of the smallest droplets of our study with initial diameter of 10 m gets extended by a factor of more than 30 as compared to what is suggested by the classical picture of Wells [20, 21], due to collective effects during droplet evaporation and the role of the respiratory humidity [22], while the larger droplets basically behave ballistically. With increasing ambient relative humidity the extension of the lifetimes of the small droplets further increases and goes up to 150 times for 90% relative humidity, implying more than two meters advection range of the respiratory droplets within one second. Smaller droplets live even longer and travel TRANS further. Our results may explain why COVID-19 superspreading events can occur for large ambient relative humidity such as in cooled-down meat-processing plants [10] or in pubs with poor ventilation. We anticipate our tool and approach to be starting points for larger parameter studies and for optimizing ventilation and indoor humidity controlling concepts, which in the upcoming autumn and winter both will be key in mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Phylodynamics reveals the role of human travel TRANS and contact tracing TRANS in controlling COVID-19 in four island nations

    Authors: Jordan Douglas; Fabio K Mendes; Remco Bouckaert; Dong Xie; Cinthy L Jimenez-Silva; Christiaan Swanepoel; Joep de Ligt; Xiaoyun Ren; Matt Storey; James Hadfield; Colin R Simpson; Jemma L Geoghegan; David Welch; Alexei J Drummond

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.04.20168518 Date: 2020-08-06 Source: medRxiv

    Most populated corners of the planet have been exposed to SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus behind the COVID-19 pandemic. We examined the progression of COVID-19 in four island nations that fared well over the first three months of the pandemic: New Zealand, Australia, Iceland, and Taiwan. Using Bayesian phylodynamic methods, we estimated the effective reproduction number TRANS of COVID-19 in the four islands as 1-1.4 during early stages of the pandemic, and show that it declined below 1 as human movement was restricted. Our reconstruction of COVID-19's phylogenetic history indicated that this disease MESHD was introduced many times into each island, and that introductions slowed down markedly when the borders closed. Finally, we found that New Zealand clusters identified via standard health surveillance largely agreed with those defined by genomic data. Our findings can assist public health decisions in countries with circulating SARS-CoV-2, and support efforts to mitigate any second waves or future epidemics.

    Social Behaviors Associated with a Positive COVID-19 Test Result

    Authors: Sidra Speaker; Christine Marie Doherty; Elizabeth R Pfoh; Aaron Dunn; Bryan Hair; Victoria Shaker; Lynn Daboul; Michael B Rothberg

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.04.20168450 Date: 2020-08-06 Source: medRxiv

    Objective: To compare behaviors of individuals who tested positive for COVID-19 relative to non-infected individuals. Methods: We sent COVID positive cases and age TRANS/ gender TRANS matched controls a survey regarding their social behaviors via MyChart (online patient portal). We called cases if they did not complete the electronic survey within two days. Data was collected from May-June 2020. Survey responses for cases without a close contact TRANS and controls were compared using Pearson chi-square or Fishers Exact tests as appropriate. Results: A total of 339 participants completed the survey (113 cases, 226 controls); 45 (40%) cases had known contact with COVID-19. Cases were more likely to have recently traveled TRANS (4% vs. 0%, p=0.01) or to work outside the home (40% vs. 25%, p=0.02). There was no difference in the rates of attending private or public gatherings, mask/glove use, hand-washing, cleaning surfaces and cleaning mail/groceries between cases and controls. Conclusions: Sixty percent of cases had no known contact with COVID-19, indicating ongoing community transmission TRANS and underlining the importance of contact tracing TRANS. The greater percentage of cases who work outside the home provides further evidence for social distancing.

    OpenStreetMap data use cases during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic

    Authors: Peter Mooney; A. Yair Grinberger; Marco Minghini; Serena Coetzee; Levente Juhasz; Godwin Yeboah

    id:2008.02653v1 Date: 2020-08-06 Source: arXiv

    At the time of writing most governments around the whole world are prioritising the limiting of the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic through a series of lockdown measures affecting schools, sports, leisure, commercial and travel TRANS activities. The gradual reversal of these measures is being carried out individually by countries and regions based on the public health emergency MESHD advice and other epidemiological modelling outcomes. As is the case in any humanitarian crisis situation, there is a need for specific, accurate and up-to-date geospatial information to facilitate emergency MESHD response, management of the overall response and public information. OpenStreetMap (OSM) has played a pivotal and often leading role in national and international humanitarian and citizen-led responses to crises such as natural disasters over the last decade or so. OSM can take these leading roles for a number of potential reasons, including; geospatial data availability under an open access license, facilitating the development of open services such as mapping, routing, etc. This paper critically assesses and reflects upon this new context and challenge for OpenStreetMap and humanitarian mapping from a number of different positions which are outlined as follows: OpenStreetMap usage as a cartographic basemap in Covid-19 related applications; Applications or services using OpenStreetMap data; Initiatives or applications aimed at the collection of new OSM data immediately relevant to the Covid-19 pandemic response or management; Import of authoritative geospatial data into OpenStreetMap where there are gaps in the OpenStreetMap database for a particular country or region; and, Academic research about the role or usage of OpenStreetMap in the Covid-19 response.

    Seroprevalence SERO of COVID-19 in Niger State

    Authors: Hussaini Majiya; Mohammed Aliyu-Paiko; Vincent Tochukwu Balogu; Dickson Achimugu Musa; Ibrahim Maikudi Salihu; Abdullahi Abubakar Kawu; Ishaq Yakubu Bashir; Aishat Rabiu Sani; John Baba; Amina Tako Muhammad; Fatima Ladidi Jibril; Ezekiel Bala; Nuhu George Obaje; Yahaya Badeggi Aliyu; Ramatu Gogo Muhammad; Hadiza Mohammed; Usman Naji Gimba; Abduljaleel Uthman; Hadiza Muhammad Liman; Sule Alfa Alhaji; Joseph Kolo James; Muhammad Muhammad Makusidi; Mohammed Danasabe Isah; Ibrahim Abdullahi; Umar Ndagi; Bala Waziri; Chindo Ibrahim Bisallah; Naomi John Dadi-Mamud; Kolo Ibrahim; Abu Kasim Adamu

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.04.20168112 Date: 2020-08-05 Source: medRxiv

    Coronavirus Disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic is ongoing, and to know how far the virus has spread in Niger State, Nigeria, a pilot study was carried out to determine the COVID-19 seroprevalence SERO, patterns, dynamics, and risk factors in the state. A cross sectional study design and clustered-stratified-Random sampling strategy were used. COVID-19 IgG and IgM Rapid Test SERO Kits (Colloidal gold immunochromatography lateral flow system) were used to determine the presence or absence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 SERO in the blood SERO of sampled participants across Niger State as from 26th June 2020 to 30th June 2020. The test kits were validated using the blood SERO samples of some of the NCDC confirmed positive and negative COVID-19 cases in the State. COVID-19 IgG and IgM Test results were entered into the EPIINFO questionnaire administered simultaneously with each test. EPIINFO was then used for both the descriptive and inferential statistical analyses of the data generated. The seroprevalence SERO of COVID-19 in Niger State was found to be 25.41% and 2.16% for the positive IgG and IgM respectively. Seroprevalence SERO among age groups TRANS, gender TRANS and by occupation varied widely. A seroprevalence SERO of 37.21% was recorded among health care workers in Niger State. Among age groups TRANS, COVID-19 seroprevalence SERO was found to be in order of 30-41 years (33.33%) > 42-53 years (32.42%) > 54-65 years (30%) > 66 years and above (25%) > 6-17 years (19.20%) > 18-29 years (17.65%) > 5 years and below (6.66%). A seroprevalence SERO of 27.18% was recorded for males TRANS and 23.17% for females TRANS in the state. COVID-19 asymptomatic TRANS rate in the state was found to be 46.81%. The risk analyses showed that the chances of infection MESHD are almost the same for both urban and rural dwellers in the state. However, health care workers and those that have had contact with person (s) that travelled TRANS out of Nigeria in the last six (6) months are twice ( 2 times) at risk of being infected with the virus. More than half (54.59%) of the participants in this study did not practice social distancing at any time since the pandemic started. Discussions about knowledge, practice and attitude of the participants are included. The observed Niger State COVID-19 seroprevalence SERO means that the herd immunity for COVID-19 is yet to be achieved and the population is still susceptible for more infection MESHD and transmission TRANS of the virus. If the prevalence SERO stays as reported here, the population will definitely need COVID-19 vaccines when they become available. Niger State should fully enforce the use of face/nose masks and observation of social/physical distancing in gatherings including religious gatherings in order to stop or slow the spread of the virus.

    The impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on maternal mental health and coping in the UK: Data from the COVID-19 New Mum Study

    Authors: Sarah Dib; Emeline Rougeaux; Adriana Vázquez-Vázquez; Jonathan CK Wells; Mary Fewtrell

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.04.20168039 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    Background: Depression and anxiety HP affect up to 20% of new and expectant mothers during the perinatal period; this rate may have increased due to COVID-19 and lockdown measures. This analysis aimed to assess how mothers are feeling and coping during lockdown, and to identify the potential pathways that can assist them. Methods: 1329 women living in the UK aged TRANS [≥]18 years with an infant [≤]12 months of age TRANS completed an anonymous online survey. Descriptive analysis of maternal mental health, coping, support received, activities undertaken and consequences of lockdown was conducted. Linear regression was used to predict maternal mental health and coping, using activities, support, and consequences of the lockdown as predictors, while adjusting for age TRANS, gestational age TRANS, ethnicity, income, marital status and number of children TRANS. Results: More than half of the participants reported feeling down (56%), lonely (59%), irritable (62%) and worried (71%), to some or high extent since lockdown began. Despite this, 70% felt able to cope with the situation. Support with her own health (95% CI .004, .235), contacting infant support groups (95% CI -.003, .252), and higher infant gestational age TRANS (95% CI .000, .063) predicted better mental health. Travelling TRANS for work (95% CI -.680, -.121), lockdown having a major impact on the ability to afford food (95% CI -1.202, -.177), and having an income lower than 30k (95% CI -.475, -.042) predicted poorer mental health. Support with her own health and more equal division of household chores were associated with better coping. Conclusion: During lockdown, a large proportion of new mothers experienced symptoms of poor mental health; mothers of infants with lower gestational age TRANS, with low income, and who are travelling TRANS to work were particularly at risk. However, greater support for maternal health and with household chores showed positive associations with maternal mental health and coping. These findings highlight the urgent need to assess maternal mental health, and to identify prevention strategies for mothers during different stages of lockdown.

    Comparing the impact on COVID-19 mortality of self-imposed behavior change and of government regulations across 13 countries

    Authors: Julian Jamison; Donald Bundy; Dean Jamison; Jacob Spitz; Stephane Verguet

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.02.20166793 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: medRxiv

    Background: Countries have adopted different approaches, at different times, to reduce the transmission TRANS of coronavirus disease MESHD 2019 (COVID-19). Cross-country comparison could indicate the relative efficacy of these approaches. We assess various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) over time, comparing the effects of self-imposed (i.e. voluntary) behavior change and of changes enforced via official regulations, by statistically examining their impacts on subsequent death MESHD rates in 13 European countries. Methods and findings: We examine two types of NPI: the introduction of government-enforced closure policies over time; and self-imposed alteration of individual behaviors in response to awareness of the epidemic, in the period prior to regulations. Our proxy for the latter is Google mobility data, which captures voluntary behavior change when disease MESHD salience is sufficiently high. The primary outcome variable is the rate of change in COVID-19 fatalities per day, 16-20 days after interventions take place. Linear multivariate regression analysis is used to evaluate impacts. Voluntarily reduced mobility, occurring prior to government policies, decreases the percent change in deaths MESHD per day by 9.2 percentage points (95% CI 4.5-14.0 pp). Government closure policies decrease the percent change in deaths MESHD per day by 14.0 percentage points (95% CI 10.8-17.2 pp). Disaggregating government policies, the most beneficial are intercity travel TRANS restrictions, cancelling public events, and closing non-essential workplaces. Other sub-components, such as closing schools and imposing stay-at-home rules, show smaller and statistically insignificant impacts. Conclusions: This study shows that NPIs have substantially reduced fatalities arising from COVID-19. Importantly, the effect of voluntary behavior change is of the same order of magnitude as government-mandated regulations. These findings, including the substantial variation across dimensions of closure, have implications for the phased withdrawal of government policies as the epidemic recedes, and for the possible reimposition of regulations if a second wave occurs, especially given the substantial economic and human welfare consequences of maintaining lockdowns.

    Extended lifetime of respiratory droplets in a turbulent vapour puff and its implications on airborne disease MESHD transmission TRANS

    Authors: Kai Leong Chong; Chong Shen Ng; Naoki Hori; Rui Yang; Roberto Verzicco; Detlef Lohse

    id:2008.01841v1 Date: 2020-08-04 Source: arXiv

    To mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic, it is key to slow down the spreading of the life-threatening coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). This spreading mainly occurs through virus-laden droplets expelled at speaking, coughing MESHD coughing HP, sneezing MESHD sneezing HP, or even breathing. To reduce infections MESHD through such respiratory droplets, authorities all over the world have introduced the so-called "2-meter distance rule" or "6-foot rule". However, there is increasing empirical evidence, e.g. through the analysis of super-spreading events, that airborne transmission TRANS of the coronavirus over much larger distances plays a major role with tremendous implications for the risk assessment of coronavirus transmission TRANS. Here we employ direct numerical simulations of a typical respiratory aerosol in a turbulent jet of the respiratory event within a Lagrangian-Eulerian approach with 5000 droplets, coupled to the ambient velocity, temperature, and humidity fields to allow for exchange of mass and heat and to realistically account for the droplet evaporation under different ambient conditions. We found that for an ambient relative humidity RH of 50% the lifetime of the smallest droplets of our study with initial diameter of 10 um gets extended by a factor of more than 30 as compared to what is suggested by the classical picture of Wells, due to collective effects during droplet evaporation and the role of the respiratory humidity, while the larger droplets basically behave ballistically. With increasing ambient RH the extension of the lifetimes of the small droplets further increases and goes up to 150 times for 90% RH, implying more than two meters advection range of the respiratory droplets within one second. Smaller droplets live even longer and travel TRANS further. Our results may explain why COVID-19 superspreading events can occur for large ambient RH such as in cooled-down meat-processing plants or in pubs with poor ventilation.

    PAN-INDIA 1000 SARS-CoV-2 RNA Genome Sequencing Reveals Important Insights into the Outbreak

    Authors: Arindam Maitra; Sunil Raghav; Ashwin Dalal; Farhan Ali; Vanessa Molin Paynter; Dhiraj Paul; Nidhan K Biswas; Arup Ghosh; Kunal Jani; Sreedhar Chinnaswamy; Sanghamitra Pati; Arvind Sahu; Debashis Mitra; Manoj Kumar Bhat; Satyajit Mayor; Apurva Sarin; - The PAN-INDIA 1000 SARS-CoV-2 RNA Genome Sequencing Consortium; Yogesh S Shouche; Aswin Sai Narain Seshasayee; Dasaradhi Palakodeti; Murali Dharan Bashyam; AJAY PARIDA; Saumitra Das

    doi:10.1101/2020.08.03.233718 Date: 2020-08-03 Source: bioRxiv

    The PAN-INDIA 1000 SARS-CoV-2 RNA Genome Sequencing Consortium has achieved its initial goal of completing the sequencing of 1000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs collected from individuals testing positive for COVID-19 by Real Time PCR. The samples were collected across 10 states covering different zones within India. Given the importance of this information for public health response initiatives investigating transmission TRANS of COVID-19, the sequence data is being released in GISAID database. This information will improve our understanding on how the virus is spreading, ultimately helping to interrupt the transmission chains TRANS, prevent new cases of infection MESHD, and provide impetus to research on intervention measures. This will also provide us with information on evolution of the virus, genetic predisposition (if any) and adaptation to human hosts. One thousand and fifty two sequences were used for phylodynamic, temporal and geographic mutation patterns and haplotype network analyses. Initial results indicate that multiple lineages of SARS-CoV-2 are circulating in India, probably introduced by travel TRANS from Europe, USA and East Asia. A2a (20A/B/C) was found to be predominant, along with few parental haplotypes 19A/B. In particular, there is a predominance of the D614G mutation, which is found to be emerging in almost all regions of the country. Additionally, mutations in important regions of the viral genome with significant geographical clustering have also been observed. The temporal haplotype diversities landscape in each region appears to be similar pan India, with haplotype diversities peaking between March-May, while by June A2a (20A/B/C) emerged as the predominant one. Within haplotypes, different states appear to have different proportions. Temporal and geographic patterns in the sequences obtained reveal interesting clustering of mutations. Some mutations are present at particularly high frequencies in one state as compared to others. The negative estimate Tajimas D (D = -2.26817) is consistent with the rapid expansion of SARS-CoV-2 population in India. Detailed mutational analysis across India to understand the gradual emergence of mutants at different regions of the country and its possible implication will help in better disease MESHD management.

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MeSH Disease
Human Phenotype
Transmission
Seroprevalence


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